Ryan Serhant

I'd say the one prediction that I made that has not come true is I thought we would see more home absorption this year than we saw in 2023. I was pretty convinced, like most of the market. More people buying up homes? Correct. Like investors? 2023, so just the United States, not globally. 2023 saw the fewest home sales in 30 years. Just about 4 million.

I'd say the one prediction that I made that has not come true is I thought we would see more home absorption this year than we saw in 2023. I was pretty convinced, like most of the market. More people buying up homes? Correct. Like investors? 2023, so just the United States, not globally. 2023 saw the fewest home sales in 30 years. Just about 4 million.

Is that because interest rates were so high? Interest rates were too high. So 90% of people who have mortgages in the United States have them under 5%. So when rates went to 8%, no one was refining. No one would sell. I can't afford to sell. Buyers all said, what am I supposed to do? My monthly cost now just shot through the roof. It was so abrupt and so sudden.

Is that because interest rates were so high? Interest rates were too high. So 90% of people who have mortgages in the United States have them under 5%. So when rates went to 8%, no one was refining. No one would sell. I can't afford to sell. Buyers all said, what am I supposed to do? My monthly cost now just shot through the roof. It was so abrupt and so sudden.

for good reason, I think, that the housing market just basically came to a standstill. And across the country, you had no inventory or short. I mean, what pundits will say is we're short about 4 million homes. I think we're actually short something like 6 million homes. And so what do you do, right? And so I assumed that coming into 2024, what goes down must go up, what goes up must go down.

for good reason, I think, that the housing market just basically came to a standstill. And across the country, you had no inventory or short. I mean, what pundits will say is we're short about 4 million homes. I think we're actually short something like 6 million homes. And so what do you do, right? And so I assumed that coming into 2024, what goes down must go up, what goes up must go down.

So we can't have a worse year. Turns out, looks like 2024 is gonna see even fewer home sales than last year because it took the Fed nine months to start adjusting rates instead of three to six months, right? A lot of people were calling for Fed cuts in Q1 and then it was Q2, then it came in September. but the market had already baked in the cuts.

So we can't have a worse year. Turns out, looks like 2024 is gonna see even fewer home sales than last year because it took the Fed nine months to start adjusting rates instead of three to six months, right? A lot of people were calling for Fed cuts in Q1 and then it was Q2, then it came in September. but the market had already baked in the cuts.

So mortgage rates haven't truly, truly seen any like major effect, but they are at like 20 month lows right now, which is nice when you say it that way, but they're still at 10 year highs. It is just a mindset shift. You know, we need mortgage rates to get down healthily into the fives, which will enable people to buy down points into the fours. If you can get a loan,

So mortgage rates haven't truly, truly seen any like major effect, but they are at like 20 month lows right now, which is nice when you say it that way, but they're still at 10 year highs. It is just a mindset shift. You know, we need mortgage rates to get down healthily into the fives, which will enable people to buy down points into the fours. If you can get a loan,

with a four handle in front of it, then the market will start being far more liquid and will move because you got to give incentive to people who are in these damn homes to move. And you've got to give incentive to developers at these rates to create more housing inventory. Like it's just too expensive to build.

with a four handle in front of it, then the market will start being far more liquid and will move because you got to give incentive to people who are in these damn homes to move. And you've got to give incentive to developers at these rates to create more housing inventory. Like it's just too expensive to build.

And so all of that has kind of created this stagnation effect in 2024, where I think last year we had 4.1 million homes sold in the United States. This year will probably be sub four. Wow. Which means that in 2025, could it get less? Sure, but I think there are so many economic indicators right now that are pointing towards even lower rates, right?

And so all of that has kind of created this stagnation effect in 2024, where I think last year we had 4.1 million homes sold in the United States. This year will probably be sub four. Wow. Which means that in 2025, could it get less? Sure, but I think there are so many economic indicators right now that are pointing towards even lower rates, right?

Greater economic stability, totally non-dependent on who wins the election. If you look the last nine of the 11 presidential elections we've had, the housing market has actually increased. absorption has increased and pricing has increased nine of the last 11 times, which is like 1982. The only two times it hasn't, 2008 Lehman Brothers and 2020, right, COVID.

Greater economic stability, totally non-dependent on who wins the election. If you look the last nine of the 11 presidential elections we've had, the housing market has actually increased. absorption has increased and pricing has increased nine of the last 11 times, which is like 1982. The only two times it hasn't, 2008 Lehman Brothers and 2020, right, COVID.

So it's been like these huge, huge, huge moments. I think that what we'll see in 2025 is you're gonna see rapid absorption of current stock. You're gonna see greater listing inventory than we've seen in the last three years. You're gonna see even more Gen Z purchasers purchasing with baby boomer dollars. Really?

So it's been like these huge, huge, huge moments. I think that what we'll see in 2025 is you're gonna see rapid absorption of current stock. You're gonna see greater listing inventory than we've seen in the last three years. You're gonna see even more Gen Z purchasers purchasing with baby boomer dollars. Really?

of all the Gen Z right now in the United States is outpacing millennials in home buying. Why is that? Because 75% of the deals that Gen Z is doing are financed by their parents because the greatest money-making generation we've ever seen are still the baby boomers. And they're also the greatest saving generation because they came out of parents from the depression. Like my dad, His dad had polio.

of all the Gen Z right now in the United States is outpacing millennials in home buying. Why is that? Because 75% of the deals that Gen Z is doing are financed by their parents because the greatest money-making generation we've ever seen are still the baby boomers. And they're also the greatest saving generation because they came out of parents from the depression. Like my dad, His dad had polio.