Ryan

And this is significant.

I think Powell's right, because this is the first time a president has ever tried to remove a Fed governor.

Right.

So big moves afoot in terms of Fed independence.

And Powell is trying to hold that institution to be more independent.

And Trump, of course, pushing back.

Now, there's some trading markets about this on Polymarket, of course.

So there is a 4% chance on Polymarket that Lisa Cook is out as a Fed governor by-

Yeah, February 28th, 2026.

Right now.

But this is a big case, and that's only by February 28th, so maybe there's other dates in the future.

Anyway, it's Fed independence, yes, no.

It's one of those types of cases.

Yeah.

I mean, the other thing to watch, of course, is the polymarket on how many Fed rate cuts will happen for the rest of 2026.

The probability of the rates actually decreased slightly after the FOMC, but not all that much.

So that's happening.

Meanwhile, David, the probability of a government shutdown has spiked.

Yeah.

And so are there reasons for this?