Saagar Enjeti

That wasn't intended at all.

It was really an improvisation to deal with

the second-order effects of their own economic war and their direct military attack on Iran.

But it's already shown, right, in principle, the U.S.

is willing to lift some of those sanctions.

And that, too, I think will strengthen the Iranian negotiating position.

So one question is, depending on how long this war goes on, whether Iran will ultimately agree maybe to open Hormuz to all countries in return for a much broader sanctions lifting.

So that's also financial sanctions on Iran.

That means the ability of other countries to invest in Iran and potentially help reconstruct some of its economy.

Things the Iranians have been wanting for many, many years.

And they've always lacked the means to do so.

And potentially now they have an instrument in their hands with which they can try and negotiate for that broader access to the world economy.

Got it.

Yeah, I think that the shadow fleet, as it's emerged in the last decade, decade and a half, has really been an important factor in continuing to facilitate this trade.

And it has now also created a whole network of shell companies.

Oftentimes, these are in jurisdictions where individuals and companies also go to evade taxation.

So this is an offshore economy that also exists for the benefit of corporations and of people with a lot of money who put their assets there.

And the shadow fleet is using those same jurisdictions.

So we're talking about Caribbean islands.

The Emirates actually are an important hub of this as well.