Sam Unsted

Yes.

Yeah.

I mean, take your pick.

That is exactly how I would frame it, that we are in yet another period of political chaos, turmoil, pick whatever word you like for it, in the UK.

But gilts are actually having a pretty good week.

10-year yields down when I got up from my desk, about 16, 17 basis points over the course of the week.

That is almost entirely driven by oil.

Oil prices have been coming down very significantly, takes away some of the inflationary risk.

bets on what the Bank of England are going to do and how much they're going to hike over the year have been pulled back as well.

But I find it a little bit curious because, so if we go back a couple of months, so to around the local elections and when there were these first kind of really substantial speculation about Kit Starmer's position,

We had a lot of strategists then come out and say very clearly the most negative outcome for gilt markets would be Andy Burnham becoming the prime minister.

So that was very much baked into what everyone's thinking.

Now we've reached that reality.

So Keir Starmer resigned on Monday.

We've effectively, as you kind of alluded to, moved on to the idea that Andy Burnham will be the next prime minister.

That's what a lot of MPs keep coming out and saying.

There is a chance somebody challenges him.

I think it's increasingly low.

That kind isn't a good way to put it, yeah.

But it would be, that could well happen, but I think it looks increasingly unlikely.