Samo Burja

So I actually think a big macro story that we've been exploring at Bismarck Analysis and the Bismarck Brief is that the demands of AI are so massive that for the first time in decades, the economies of scale necessary to supply them require industrial revolutions in everything.

So this demand shock, and we could almost call it a demand shock, arriving from the future in AI is going through silicon, but eventually it's going to reach things like mirrors and steel and natural gas.

And once you're doing those things, oh buddy, you've reignited the industrial revolution.

Well, I think that people over-index on long civilizational narratives and under-index on just the concrete material conditions in a country –

To give an example, there was the so-called Yellow Turban Rebellion in China in the third century.

You could easily make the case that China has eschatological thinking and has end of the world cults, right?

The so-called Yellow Turban Rebellion was basically a Taoist cult.

And it was a bunch of brothers that wanted to overthrow an imperial dynasty.

They believed the end of the world would come, that, you know, the heavens themselves would change and that there would be a massive transformation into an unprecedented utopia.

This was actually believed by many, many people.

And it was a very bloody civil war and likely one that ended up destroying, you know, destroying the Han Dynasty.

I think that people want to equate deep religious traditions with basically the beliefs that a society holds, but they underrate how much those religious beliefs change on the century timescale or the millennial timescale.

I think that the United States is still innovating in its practical religious sense.

You know, you could say that the rise of this kind of non-denominational Christian-derived ethic where basically, you know, just be a hecking good person, whatever that means, right?

That vibe, that ethic, right?

seems to be the actual religious belief of most people.

And then some sort of vague belief in karma, some sort of vague belief in like an inactive God that doesn't interfere in the world.

I think that actually probably describes most people who are nominally Christian in the United States today.

Well, there's a straightforward interpretation where, you know, simply because you're doing well, that doesn't mean your salvation is guaranteed.

It's not clear that you were one of the elect, but it is a hint.