Sara Firth

as the government, as the country that is there to help.

I think what a lot of people are looking at right now, and certainly I'm looking at in terms of reporting, is the potential unintended consequences of

any escalation or even a Venezuela-style action with a military extraction happening in Cuba, any kind of heavy-handed military intervention there would be very different to what we've seen in, say, Venezuela, because this is 90 miles from Florida.

it would risk sparking a humanitarian refugee crisis.

There is already a humanitarian crisis there.

But we know that the regime and the government in Havana, they have weathered very, very difficult times before.

And I think there is a growing sense that the Trump administration

and President Trump himself possibly are frustrated by the lack of movement and progress that that economic stranglehold that they've had on Cuba has had.

I think they don't feel that that has gone far enough.

And now we've seen this indictment against Raul Castro, and again, very importantly, the arrival of that aircraft carrier, the USS Nimitz, and its accompanying strike group.

Yes.

And, you know, saying on camera that I was about an hour away from resuming strikes.

I mean, there are so many tension points right now, not just Tehran, of course, but I think the sense that President Trump and the administration have perhaps got their focus elsewhere.

I think what's interesting is looking at what happened when it came to Venezuela after you had a very similar thing play out.

You had the arrival of an aircraft carrier arriving nearby.

Again, they sort of said it was a show of force.

But then immediately the military buildup in that area of Venezuela, after you had the extraction, they were then deployed, of course, to the Middle East for action in Iran.

I think, look, whether this ends in a dramatic cross-border commando-style raid, whether they're looking for some kind of internal military cooperation,

you have got that humanitarian crisis continuing on the ground.

Either way that you look at this, it's the Cuban people are going to have a tough ride ahead of them.