Sarah Paine

And they're going to do the—it's not placate in our day.

It's rather sanctions of saying, okay, if you're not going to play nice, we're not going to trade with you.

You're going to have a massive timeout from the global order.

And China is very trade reliant.

And so, okay.

Oh, why?

I think the story is on...

sanctions they don't have to be leak proof all you're doing is if you can knock off one or two percentages uh points of chinese growth just because some people are sanctioning like war material that would be a very likely thing that after taiwan maybe you're trading with china but you're not doing certain categories of war material with them the cumulative effects of doing that to a country over generations is the difference between north and south korea

It adds right up.

And you can do the math better than I can.

If you knock off 2% growth per annum, I think the doubling time of an economy, I don't know, if you knock a couple of percentage points off, it goes from like 25 years to 75 years.

You will be able to do the math better than I can rapidly.

But it's very consequential.

And China's neighbors will be scared to death of this.

And also, you're right that trade patterns don't go overnight.

They go gradually over like a 10-year period in which China will find it's already happening is supply chains are moving out of China.

Slow.

Not today.

No one's centering around us right now because we're not playing nicely with allies right now.

But rather, I think you will find that there are so many countries that are eager to follow the Chinese model for development.