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Sarah Paine

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
8864 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

But all of a sudden, East Germany eases up on the travel regulations, and you might ask why?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

And the answer would be money.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

Just like the Poles, the East Germans were deep in an economic mess of their own making.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

Would-be tank man Erich Honecker, who got the boot at the very end, well, his staying-in-power paradigm that he implements in 1971 is going to be, he's really going to live off debt.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

He needs to make certain...

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

social benefits available and consumer benefits available for labor stability, not having labor unrest.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

And the way he's going to do that is he's not going to do many domestic investments and he's going to do a lot of borrowing, particularly from West Germany.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

Well, that's unsustainable long term.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

So by the time you get to the end of the Cold War, if he's going to fix that and even out the accounts, it would be a 30% decline in East German standard of living.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

So he really needs the pocket change from the tourists.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

So what Kohl does is a brisk business of tourists and things.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

What he does in return for the easing of travel restrictions, he pays...

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

East Germany several hundred million Deutschmarks extra to allow that to happen.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

And then he gets the Hungarians to go along.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

He gets the Hungarians to open up their Austrian border to let East Germans out that way.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

And he gives them a half a billion Deutschmarks for that little favor.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

And then when Kohl introduces his 10-point unification program, because now he's thinking he's going to get both Germanys together,

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

This is when he starts doling out big bucks to the Soviet Union, whose economy is unraveling.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

And Gorbachev is going to be desperate for this cash as that's happening.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ Why Russia Lost the Cold War

So West Germany provides $100 million in food, especially in meat, for the Soviet Union that doesn't have these things.