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Sarah Paine

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
8864 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

They haven't got these institutions.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

And so it's not feasible.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

A Marshall Plan in China would not have worked.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

And also, we had really competent foreign service officers in China in this period.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

Why?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

They're the children of missionaries.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

And so they spoke fluent Chinese and had a deep understanding of China.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

And they were saying, it's hopeless, that there is no way Chiang Kai-shek is going to win this thing because he's hated by the peasantry.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

which he was, because for the reasons I've told you, right, if he's busy dragooning them into his armies because he feels he has no choices, whereas the communists are giving them land and educating them, you better believe who the peasants are supporting.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

And the missionaries, they were then caught up in the McCarthy purges and were just about ruined by

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

lost their jobs in the State Department and elsewhere, only to be exonerated, I don't know, 10, 15, 20 years later when they've already lost their careers and who knows how they raise their families.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

No, it was considered hopeless.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

This is called making a net assessment of not what you want it to be, but an accurate one.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

They believed it was not feasible.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

You're talking hundreds of millions of people.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

We can't even deal with Afghanistan today with, what, 20 million people?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

It's not feasible.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

It's at the end of World War II.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

American GIs are sick of it, as are their parents, of fighting more wars.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China

We didn't have to send GIs, we just had to not cut off support.