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Sarah Paine

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
8864 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

So everybody feels, or most people feel, some level of group loyalty.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

This is human.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

But in Japan, the levels of membership are much more finely calibrated, and they're re-emphasized by these social, cultural, and linguistic reasons.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

So this group membership and stovepiping ultimately is gonna be a much stronger feature of Japanese culture than some other places.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

All right, last theorist is Miyamoto Musashi, who unlike the other two actually did a little fighting.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

He was born a little earlier and he was a master samurai who taught people martial arts.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

And from him, you get a sense of some of the operational preferences deriving from these values.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

And I'm going to go through all of these in turn.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

First is risk intolerance, because remember at the beginning, I started with the two flag officers saying, well, we're going to do this war in the Pacific when it's unlikely we're going to succeed, but we're going to do it anyway.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

And here is Miyamoto.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

Furthermore, to fight even five or 10 people single-handedly in duels, that's what my military science is all about.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

So what's the difference between the logic of one person beating up 10 people and a thousand people beating 10,000?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

Logistics, my friend, but nevermind.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

And then another thing that he emphasizes in addition, don't expect long odds to deter the Japanese back in the day.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

Surprise is another one.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

Think about a situation that has stalemated and it's going nowhere, which is what the China theater was for the Japanese, and how do you get out of it?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

And the answer that Miyamoto has is not come up with a new policy objective,

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

But come up with a tactic that'll somehow put your enemy off balance and then get what you want that way.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

And the way the Japanese did this was often by opening a new theater in a war, by surprising people by the new places that you were gonna start engaging in military operations.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)

And here's how it worked.