Scott Alexander (author/host)

To prove that miracles are real?

God clearly doesn't want to do that.

Or he would just do miracles in some really obvious way today, and then we wouldn't need to trust the discrimination of 15th century Frenchmen.

Basilica.

Look, leaving aside the age-old debate over free will and why God doesn't solve our problems for us, I realise mysterious ways is a cheap shot, but this is one of the hinge points of history.

There's no reason to believe the English would stop rolling over France if they took Orléans, and no reason not to expect they'd hold on if they took it.

Footnote.

Arendelle.

Actually, what about the Wars of the Roses?

Wouldn't France get free while the Red and White Roses fought?

Basilica.

Countries that lose wars and thereby lose territory have revolutions, as the populace looks for scapegoats for the disaster and the dispossessed elites managing the occupation flee to what remains of their country to compete for status with their already established rivals.

Countries that win wars do so much less regularly, and so an English victory here would probably prevent them.

Arundel.

I agree, I think.

Back to the text where in the middle of what Basilica is saying...

Arendelle, Arendelle,

Basilica.

Ironically, this is where the corruption and ineptitude enter play on the other side.

Maybe there wasn't a butterfly that would do it.