Scott Alexander

Another related thing, too, is that it was going to... The original thing was not supposed to end in 2026.

It was supposed to go all the way through the exciting stuff, right?

Because everyone's talking about, like, what about AGI?

What about superintelligence?

Like, what would that even look like?

So I was trying to sort of, like, step by step work my way from where we were at the time until...

things happen and then see what they look like.

But I basically chickened out when I got to 2027 because things were starting to happen and the automation loop was starting to take off and it was just so confusing and there was so much uncertainty.

So I basically just deleted the last chapter and published what I had up until that point and that was the blog post.

So we have like the stats tracked on the side of the story.

Part of why we did it as a website is so that you can have these cool gadgets and widgets.

And so as you read the story, the stats on the side automatically update.

And so one of those stats is like the progress multiplier.

Another answer to the same question you asked is basically, 2026, nothing super interesting, or 2025, nothing super interesting happened.

More or less similar trends to what we're seeing.

My guess is that they won't be making basic mouse click errors by the end of 2025, like they sometimes currently do.

Like, if you watch Claude plays Pokemon, which he totally should, it seems like sometimes it's just, like, failing to parse what's on the screen, and, like, it misses, like...

thinks that its own player character is an NPC and gets confused.

My guess is that that sort of thing will mostly be gone by the end of this year, but that they still won't be able to autonomously operate for long periods on their own because... By 2025, when you say it won't be able to act coherently for long periods of time in computer use...

My guess is that by the end of this year, there'll be something that can sort of like