Scott Alexander

With respect to the quantity, of course, yeah, we're imagining you get like hundreds of thousands of AI agents, a million AI agents.

But that just means you get bottlenecked on the other stuff.

Like you've got tons of parallel agents.

That's no longer your bottleneck.

What do you get bottlenecked on?

Taste and compute.

So by the time it's mid-2027 in our story, when they've, like, fully automated the AI research, there's basically the two things that matter is, like, what's, like, the level of taste of your AIs?

How good are they at learning from the experiments that you're doing?

And then, like, how much compute do you have for running those experiments?

Right.

And that's, like, the sort of, like, core setup of our model.

And when we get our, like, 25x multiplier, it's sort of, like, starting from those premises.

Possibly the Industrial Revolution.

I'm just extemporizing here.

I hadn't thought about this before.

But as Scott's famous post that was hugely influential to me a decade ago talks about, there's been this decoupling of population growth from overall economic growth that happened with the Industrial Revolution.

And so, in some sense, maybe you could say that's an example of, like, previously these things grew in tandem.

Like, more population, more technology, more farms, more houses, et cetera.

Like, your sort of capital infrastructure and your, like, human infrastructure was, like, going up together.

But then we got the industrial roof and they started to come apart.