Scott Galloway

And again, to your point, this is why my belief is that this is going to go on a lot longer because he's never... I mean, he's unwilling to admit defeat on small issues.

This is the most important, difficult issue in the world.

Do we really believe...

that he's going to be okay with saying, actually, we're going to pull everyone out and we're going to call it a day and admit that we were wrong on this so that we didn't execute properly.

I mean, maybe he'll try to do it and he'll lie about it and say, actually, it was a win for these reasons, and then the rest of us will know.

But, I mean, when you're dealing with troops on the ground, when you're dealing with missiles, when you're literally dealing with people's lives, it becomes very, very difficult to do that.

And so my expectation is,

I don't think that he's going to make a deal with Iran or resolve it anytime soon, because I don't think that he is willing to reverse course.

This is his entire principle.

He never, ever wants to do this.

So I think that the oil is going to remain blocked for the foreseeable future.

I will note...

that when you look at the amount of oil that is blocked up right now, and this was research from the Institute of Energy Research, it comes out to around 6% of global oil supply.

So it's actually lower than you might expect, and the reason for that is, yes, the Middle East accounts for nearly a third of the global oil supply, but about a quarter of it takes alternative routes around the Strait, which leaves around 20% of it at risk, and a third of it currently is fully blocked.

My expectation is that that amount will remain blocked for the foreseeable future.

So my view is I don't think we're going to hit 8%, 9%, 10% inflation like we did in 2022.

But I do think that inflation is going to continue to rise for two reasons.

One, I think these oil prices that we have already seen, they still need time to funnel through the rest of the economy.

And two, I think as this goes on, you're going to see higher oil price expectations, which will lead to higher oil prices outright.

And so I don't know if you remember, but my prediction earlier in the year was that we would hit 4.5% inflation by the end of the year.