Scott Galloway

And we could also note that it has some kind of funky lockups compared to traditional IPOs, which usually there's an 180-day cliff.

And instead, SpaceX has opted for this rolling release valve where they essentially let you sell your stock in days.

what is essentially 20-day increments.

It starts off to 70 days and then 90 days and then under 20 days.

It's a kind of complicated setup, which is designed to make it easier to sell your stock over the short term.

And my assumption is we're going to see unprecedented selling.

Because I think everyone knows this thing is very hot right now.

It's in demand, big day on the IPO, and that is somewhat what we're seeing.

But then over time, they're going to start to realize, okay, now I want to cash out.

Now I'm going to sell.

And so my expectation is that the stock is going to get cut in half over the next six months as the lockup periods expire and as all of the hype and the excitement starts to wear off.

There's just so many things here that lead to a transfer of wealth and power from the little guy to the big guy.

So, for example, $3.75 billion was reserved to give to, like, friends and family with no lockup.

So why wouldn't they give those to, I don't know, journalists who say nice things about SpaceX or to Trump Don Jr.?

Hey, we have worked with our bankers.

We think there's going to be a 20% pop here.

you know, would you like an easy $2 million, put $10 million in?

Not that I'm recommending this, but you can sell in the first trade if you want.

We think there's going to be at least a 20% pop.

And meanwhile, the retail investor who might be subject to these weird lockups is crazy.