Scott Galloway
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Podcast Appearances
So clearly, there is still a lot of excitement around this company.
So we wanted to talk to someone who has actually run the numbers and attempted to value this stock.
So joining us to discuss SpaceX, we are speaking with Nicholas Owens, equity analyst for Morningstar.
Nicholas, thank you for joining us.
As someone who has actually done a discounted cash flow analysis of this company, you valued the company, you wrote about it, and your number that you reached was $780 billion, which is, I mean, we compare it to the current valuation, $2.6 trillion.
It is notably a lot lower.
Take us through how you got to that number.
This is the thing that I think is really important, which is that your valuation is weighing multiple probabilities at the same time, and it isn't ruling out what you describe as the moonshot scenario, which I think is an accurate portrayal of some of these businesses, orbital data centers, down the line...
civilizations and cities on Mars.
I mean, how do you even value that?
But the point being, you've actually taken all of that into account, weighed up the probability, and you've landed in a number that is less than half what the company is currently trading at.
And I think that that is striking.
I want to get to your reactions to how the stock is trading in a moment, but I want to stay on your valuation for a moment longer.
You also said, you said, quote, we value SpaceX at $780 billion with a Morningstar economic moat rating of narrow.
I've seen a lot of people pushing back, criticizing the moat rating.
A lot of people would say this is an extremely wide moat.
They're building rockets.
Not many people can do that.
Take us through why you landed on that.
Yeah, this is part of the problem with this stock, which is...