Scott Horsley

No.

Today's report is also expected to show an uptick in housing costs, and that's important because housing is such a big component of the government's cost of living index.

Some of that April increase in housing costs is real.

Some, though, is a statistical quirk that stems from the government shutdown last fall.

You know, there was a gap in data for October.

And so housing inflation looked artificially low for a while.

Hertz says, by contrast, today's report is going to show housing inflation looks higher than usual.

So take that housing inflation figure today with a grain of salt.

Yeah, this is not exactly the welcome mat that Kevin Warsh, President Trump's pick to be the new leader of the Fed, was hoping for.

Unfortunately for Warsh and other Fed policymakers, there's not a whole lot they can do to address this energy supply shock, given their limited toolkit.

The Fed typically fights inflation by raising interest rates, but that's not going to free up tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz or boost the supply of jet fuel.

Of course, President Trump has been pushing the central bank to lower interest rates, and that's looking less likely for now.

We could see a rate cut if it looked as if the job market were falling apart, but the jobs report we got last week showed no sign of that.

Employers added 115,000 jobs in April.

So for the time being, it looks like the Fed is just going to keep interest rates where they are.

By the way, that jobs report also showed that average wages in April were up 3.6% from a year ago.

If today's cost of living report comes in as expected, that means all of those wage gains over the last year have been gobbled up by higher prices.

You're welcome.

Crude oil prices have come down slightly from their peak on Monday, but the U.S.

benchmark is still well above $100 a barrel.