Scott Horsley

Unemployments climb from 4% at the beginning of this year to 4.4% in September.

That's still low by historical standards.

But people feel like, gosh, if I'm struggling to pay the bills now, what happens if the job market really turns south and a lot of people get laid off?

How are Fed officials approaching this?

Yeah, they're really in a tough spot, you know, because inflation is still well above their target.

And ordinarily, the central bank would try to curb inflation by keeping interest rates high.

But the Fed's also worried about that softening job market.

And the way it usually deals with that is by lowering interest rates.

So there's a real tug of war here.

The Fed did cut rates at its last two meetings, but minutes show there were strongly differing views about whether a third cut would be warranted this month.

Members of the committee who are most worried about unemployment say yes.

Those who are more worried about inflation say no.

So we could see a real split vote next week.

And what does that mean for workers and shoppers?

Well, right now, markets think it's likely the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate by another quarter point.

It's not a slam dunk, and there could be more dissents than usual.

But if those forecasts are right, that would make it a little cheaper to borrow money to

buy a car or get a new refrigerator or whatever.

And the idea is that increased demand would perk up the economy a little bit and prompt employers to keep more people on the payroll.

In that University of Michigan survey, people do say they feel a little more confident about where the economy is going to be in the future than where it is right now.