Scott Horsley

The unemployment rate has been inching up.

Fed Governor Chris Waller has been saying for months now the warning signs are flashing on the job market, and the central bank should lower interest rates to prevent a further deterioration.

The Fed already cut its benchmark interest rate in September and October, and a third cut would make it a little bit cheaper to borrow money so consumers might spend a bit more and businesses, in turn, might need to hire more people.

It's not because we've still got the specter of inflation out there.

That's the other part of the Fed's job.

And some policymakers think getting prices under control is a bigger concern right now than the softening job market.

Prices are still climbing faster than the Fed would like.

Just yesterday, we got some survey data showing that a lot of small businesses are raising prices.

There's concern that the president's tariffs will continue to push prices up in the new year.

Susan Collins, who heads the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, voted for rate cuts in both September and October, but she says the bar is pretty high before she would vote for a third cut this week.

Because of that six-week shutdown, we don't know what the unemployment rate was in October, and we don't know what the inflation rate was that month, because the federal workers who were furloughed were unable to gather that data.

What's more, the numbers for November, which the Fed would ordinarily have in its hands at this meeting, won't come out until next week.

So policymakers are at a bit of a handicap here as they try to steer the economy through thicker-than-usual fog.

You know, the Fed likes to operate by consensus.

It's not uncommon to have some disagreement, but it is unusual to have a lot, and in particular to have disagreement in both directions.

At the last Fed meeting, we had two dissents, one from a committee member who thought the Fed was cutting rates too aggressively, and another who thought the Fed wasn't moving fast enough.

It's been six years since there were three dissents on a Fed vote, and it's been 33 years since there were four dissents.

It's possible we could see that many today.

President Trump is certainly calling for more, but we'll see.

Fed officials will update their forecast today of where they think interest rates are likely to go next year.