Scott Tinker

Globally.

Globally.

And even in this country still, we're not over 50% in the US.

And even in this country still, we're not over 50% in the US.

Or hot ones.

Or hot ones.

They're tough. Again, that's a good topic to come to. But I'd say density is a fundamental concept. I did a TEDx talk to 1,100 kids and the way I explained density to start it was with food. I just said, hey, there's kale and there's cow. Right. And they both give me calories. Only marketers think kale is food, by the way. Well, okay. And a lot of people have written me and said, kale?

They're tough. Again, that's a good topic to come to. But I'd say density is a fundamental concept. I did a TEDx talk to 1,100 kids and the way I explained density to start it was with food. I just said, hey, there's kale and there's cow. Right. And they both give me calories. Only marketers think kale is food, by the way. Well, okay. And a lot of people have written me and said, kale?

Can you pick something else? But no, kale and cow are kind of fun. And I threw in ice cream too. But I'd have to eat a whole lot of kale. to get the same calories as a piece of steak, just volumetrically, right? And so the density, when you start thinking about density, you can think about it in food terms now.

Can you pick something else? But no, kale and cow are kind of fun. And I threw in ice cream too. But I'd have to eat a whole lot of kale. to get the same calories as a piece of steak, just volumetrically, right? And so the density, when you start thinking about density, you can think about it in food terms now.

Yeah, cows chew forever.

Yeah, cows chew forever.

Now, I happen to think, at least for my body, a mixture of food inputs isn't a bad thing. Okay, I don't have allergies, I'm good. So I have vegetables, I have some fruits, I eat meat for sure and other things, and it's a diverse diet. Think about that like energy. So in density terms, we come back to energy. Energy per unit weight.

Now, I happen to think, at least for my body, a mixture of food inputs isn't a bad thing. Okay, I don't have allergies, I'm good. So I have vegetables, I have some fruits, I eat meat for sure and other things, and it's a diverse diet. Think about that like energy. So in density terms, we come back to energy. Energy per unit weight.

Things like hay, our first energy ever that our vehicles ate to motor themselves around, and wood, and dung. And other kinds of biomass were the early human-like things used for energy.

Things like hay, our first energy ever that our vehicles ate to motor themselves around, and wood, and dung. And other kinds of biomass were the early human-like things used for energy.

And still do. We are consuming more of those things than we ever have still, which is ironic. There are more people. So not percentage-wise, but in actual consumption units, more of those. No, you start to transition naturally. We discover charcoal or coal. Nature took all the plants and made it into a dense carbon form called coal. Nature did the work, time, heat, pressure.

And still do. We are consuming more of those things than we ever have still, which is ironic. There are more people. So not percentage-wise, but in actual consumption units, more of those. No, you start to transition naturally. We discover charcoal or coal. Nature took all the plants and made it into a dense carbon form called coal. Nature did the work, time, heat, pressure.

So now I've got dense plants called coal. And in 1804, the very first commercial steam engine for a train in Wales took its first journey, 1804. And there were a billion people in the world in 1804. We'd grown from 110 million in 1000 BC. It was a perfect census back then, we know. They counted them all. 110 million to 1 billion in those thousands of years.

So now I've got dense plants called coal. And in 1804, the very first commercial steam engine for a train in Wales took its first journey, 1804. And there were a billion people in the world in 1804. We'd grown from 110 million in 1000 BC. It was a perfect census back then, we know. They counted them all. 110 million to 1 billion in those thousands of years.

And then we went from 1 billion people to 8.3 billion people in a couple hundred years. The hydrocarbon age kicked off. Then oil, again, carbon and hydrogen, natural gas, mostly methane, or mostly hydrogen and methane.

And then we went from 1 billion people to 8.3 billion people in a couple hundred years. The hydrocarbon age kicked off. Then oil, again, carbon and hydrogen, natural gas, mostly methane, or mostly hydrogen and methane.

So this was the accelerator of human development because now we had an energy source that could do useful work for us and humans didn't have to labor and toil ourselves or with a plow animal of some kind.

So this was the accelerator of human development because now we had an energy source that could do useful work for us and humans didn't have to labor and toil ourselves or with a plow animal of some kind.

At least, in the rich world. Yeah, in the rich world. So think about density. We've gone from that. Coal is denser by weight. Oil, denser still. Natural gas, by weight, denser still. And then the magic uranium and thorium radioactive elements come along, and they have a density per unit weight a million times more than wood.

At least, in the rich world. Yeah, in the rich world. So think about density. We've gone from that. Coal is denser by weight. Oil, denser still. Natural gas, by weight, denser still. And then the magic uranium and thorium radioactive elements come along, and they have a density per unit weight a million times more than wood.

A million times. Yeah. So... All a nuclear reactor does when you put, I say all, you put little uranium pellets that are about a centimeter tall, I've held them, you know, that wide, stuff them into these fuel rods, you activate them, basically you split those things, fission, and that creates a bunch of heat. And those are sitting in a...

A million times. Yeah. So... All a nuclear reactor does when you put, I say all, you put little uranium pellets that are about a centimeter tall, I've held them, you know, that wide, stuff them into these fuel rods, you activate them, basically you split those things, fission, and that creates a bunch of heat. And those are sitting in a...

Pool of water, the water starts to boil, make steam, turn a turbine, run a generator. It's just a different source of heat than burning coal or burning natural gas or burning oil to make electricity. Different source of heat. And by the way, the sun at the towers, that's heat too. All that's doing is boiling water with a bunch of mirrors.

Pool of water, the water starts to boil, make steam, turn a turbine, run a generator. It's just a different source of heat than burning coal or burning natural gas or burning oil to make electricity. Different source of heat. And by the way, the sun at the towers, that's heat too. All that's doing is boiling water with a bunch of mirrors.

So along comes uranium and thorium and nuclear, and this changes things. We can do a tremendous amount of work. Let me give the listeners a feel for that density in that little uranium pellet. there's enough energy contained in there to the equivalent energy to drive my car from New York to LA, back to Dallas, one pellet. Think of the gasoline that would take a lot and gasoline is very dense.

So along comes uranium and thorium and nuclear, and this changes things. We can do a tremendous amount of work. Let me give the listeners a feel for that density in that little uranium pellet. there's enough energy contained in there to the equivalent energy to drive my car from New York to LA, back to Dallas, one pellet. Think of the gasoline that would take a lot and gasoline is very dense.

Think of, so you start to extrapolate, this is the energy density, certain forms of energy just won the physics game, uranium and natural gas, basically.

Think of, so you start to extrapolate, this is the energy density, certain forms of energy just won the physics game, uranium and natural gas, basically.

That's the first principle. Energy underpins healthy economies. And, and we'll come to this, healthy economies can afford to invest in the environment.

That's the first principle. Energy underpins healthy economies. And, and we'll come to this, healthy economies can afford to invest in the environment.

Yeah, we should talk about some of those things. And I've probably been talking about that little triangle for 25 years. Energy, the economy, the environment, and all those investments. The cleanest air in the world, not talking about atmosphere, but the stuff we breathe, particulate matter 2.5, is where it's rich. Right. The worst air in the world is where it's poor. Right.

Yeah, we should talk about some of those things. And I've probably been talking about that little triangle for 25 years. Energy, the economy, the environment, and all those investments. The cleanest air in the world, not talking about atmosphere, but the stuff we breathe, particulate matter 2.5, is where it's rich. Right. The worst air in the world is where it's poor. Right.

They just can't afford to clean it up. So this is a fundamental... And it goes that direction. Energy, the economy, the environment.

They just can't afford to clean it up. So this is a fundamental... And it goes that direction. Energy, the economy, the environment.

And ironically, kind of an important point here, if you want to... Clean up the atmosphere emissions as well as the land, the air, and the water. You have to accelerate economic development. You have to accelerate human flourishing.

And ironically, kind of an important point here, if you want to... Clean up the atmosphere emissions as well as the land, the air, and the water. You have to accelerate economic development. You have to accelerate human flourishing.

Not push it down.

Not push it down.

And it's not just the billion who are in extreme poverty. Let's call them the emerging world. It's the next four to five billion people that have intermittent energy. Their power comes and goes. Their fuels vary and are not reliable to them. So it's this whole three to four billion people kind of emerging, another three to four billion developing, and 1.4 billion developed.

And it's not just the billion who are in extreme poverty. Let's call them the emerging world. It's the next four to five billion people that have intermittent energy. Their power comes and goes. Their fuels vary and are not reliable to them. So it's this whole three to four billion people kind of emerging, another three to four billion developing, and 1.4 billion developed.

That's an energy transition hierarchy. That's a global health hierarchy. Right. That's an access to food hierarchy. That's a clean water hierarchy. That's a clean soils hierarchy. That's a clean air hierarchy. Opportunity for your children hierarchy. It's everything. Right. And so if you could picture the average of the wealthy world, 1.3 billion of us, consume about 50 megawatt hours. Right.

That's an energy transition hierarchy. That's a global health hierarchy. Right. That's an access to food hierarchy. That's a clean water hierarchy. That's a clean soils hierarchy. That's a clean air hierarchy. Opportunity for your children hierarchy. It's everything. Right. And so if you could picture the average of the wealthy world, 1.3 billion of us, consume about 50 megawatt hours. Right.

And we make about $50,000 per person. 50 megawatt hours per capita, $50,000 per capita. That's the average of the wealthy world annually. The US is higher than that. 50-50, that's kind of convenient. At the end of every year, I tear apart a bunch of data for several weeks. It's my fun. And so I kind of was working on population data, economic data, and energy data at the end of last year.

And we make about $50,000 per person. 50 megawatt hours per capita, $50,000 per capita. That's the average of the wealthy world annually. The US is higher than that. 50-50, that's kind of convenient. At the end of every year, I tear apart a bunch of data for several weeks. It's my fun. And so I kind of was working on population data, economic data, and energy data at the end of last year.

And this is cool. Conveniently cool. 50-50. Yep. All right. Sticks in your head. 50-50. Seven billion other people in the world are below that. Some way below it. Now, it's not, well, there's a bunch of folks here and then there's some here and then here. It's a complete continuum, all right? But for convenience sake, there's 4 billion people emerging, You know, we have 50 megawatt hours.

And this is cool. Conveniently cool. 50-50. Yep. All right. Sticks in your head. 50-50. Seven billion other people in the world are below that. Some way below it. Now, it's not, well, there's a bunch of folks here and then there's some here and then here. It's a complete continuum, all right? But for convenience sake, there's 4 billion people emerging, You know, we have 50 megawatt hours.

They have five or three or one. And proportionately about $1,000 to $5,000 per capita.

They have five or three or one. And proportionately about $1,000 to $5,000 per capita.

Nothing.

Nothing.

Think about that. That's a couple cups of Starbucks or something a day. Yep, yep. And then as you come up through that, there's the developing world and then the developed world. Lumped all these 7 billion people. And they're stuck. Right. They're kind of stuck here. They haven't moved much. They're getting a little bit more. While the wealthy world, we consume more energy,

Think about that. That's a couple cups of Starbucks or something a day. Yep, yep. And then as you come up through that, there's the developing world and then the developed world. Lumped all these 7 billion people. And they're stuck. Right. They're kind of stuck here. They haven't moved much. They're getting a little bit more. While the wealthy world, we consume more energy,

and we're getting a lot wealthier. Now, we're consuming less energy per unit wealth, which is cool. That curve is flattening. It's really cool. Yeah, that's great.

and we're getting a lot wealthier. Now, we're consuming less energy per unit wealth, which is cool. That curve is flattening. It's really cool. Yeah, that's great.

Yes, yeah, yeah. Yeah, you plateau. And some of it is, well, you don't need any more stuff. You know, there's that reality. But we're making better things, more efficient things. There's a rebound effect.

Yes, yeah, yeah. Yeah, you plateau. And some of it is, well, you don't need any more stuff. You know, there's that reality. But we're making better things, more efficient things. There's a rebound effect.

An economist back in the 1800s, Jevons, showed, well, if you get a really nice, efficient, let's call it a refrigerator, and you're using a lot less energy and it doesn't cost as much, you're gonna get two. And we do. Two cars, two TVs.

An economist back in the 1800s, Jevons, showed, well, if you get a really nice, efficient, let's call it a refrigerator, and you're using a lot less energy and it doesn't cost as much, you're gonna get two. And we do. Two cars, two TVs.

Yes, it does. And the removal of choice and basic human freedoms and liberties.

Yes, it does. And the removal of choice and basic human freedoms and liberties.

Let's kind of set the idea that we could tell people what they can do aside for a second, even in places that tell people what they can do. I see behind me the Soviet Union post. I went there in 82 for three weeks when it was still the Soviet Union. The Cold War was on. We were behind the Iron Curtain and I was out of college. And it left a huge impression on me.

Let's kind of set the idea that we could tell people what they can do aside for a second, even in places that tell people what they can do. I see behind me the Soviet Union post. I went there in 82 for three weeks when it was still the Soviet Union. The Cold War was on. We were behind the Iron Curtain and I was out of college. And it left a huge impression on me.

I saw what it was like to live without liberty. In a command economy. It was very intense. And I went out when I shouldn't at night from hotels and met with young people my age, 22, 23, invincible. These are embedded forever. These are memories that are embedded forever of the look in young people's eyes who are now in their 60s, if they're still here. So what that system does, it doesn't work.

I saw what it was like to live without liberty. In a command economy. It was very intense. And I went out when I shouldn't at night from hotels and met with young people my age, 22, 23, invincible. These are embedded forever. These are memories that are embedded forever of the look in young people's eyes who are now in their 60s, if they're still here. So what that system does, it doesn't work.

You can't tell people that.

You can't tell people that.

how's that working yeah we'll eventually come back there you know yeah but but getting back uh kind of this dialogue yeah energy economies and that gives you the wherewithal to invest in cleaning up environments and we see that in all sorts of different right and that that final 50 50 50 50 that's the bottom half of the world well no oh okay yeah it's it's uh

how's that working yeah we'll eventually come back there you know yeah but but getting back uh kind of this dialogue yeah energy economies and that gives you the wherewithal to invest in cleaning up environments and we see that in all sorts of different right and that that final 50 50 50 50 that's the bottom half of the world well no oh okay yeah it's it's uh

So you say, okay, here we are with this continuum, and there's the 50-50. And I ask myself the question, why are we considering light bulbs and mud huds, which I've done, electrified? The world organizations say, well, that's electrified. No, no, that's a light bulb and a mud hud. Right. And it's more than they had. They can read at night. Yeah, yeah. Et cetera, it's a start.

So you say, okay, here we are with this continuum, and there's the 50-50. And I ask myself the question, why are we considering light bulbs and mud huds, which I've done, electrified? The world organizations say, well, that's electrified. No, no, that's a light bulb and a mud hud. Right. And it's more than they had. They can read at night. Yeah, yeah. Et cetera, it's a start.

If we had a light bulb in a mud hut here, we'd call it a brownout, Jordan. We would be in a brownout situation. We'd be one lamp. So what would it take really to lift seven billion people in various stages to 50 megawatts, hours, and 50,000 bucks? So I ran the numbers. And then by when? So it turns out the world today, all in, let's call it primary energy consumption.

If we had a light bulb in a mud hut here, we'd call it a brownout, Jordan. We would be in a brownout situation. We'd be one lamp. So what would it take really to lift seven billion people in various stages to 50 megawatts, hours, and 50,000 bucks? So I ran the numbers. And then by when? So it turns out the world today, all in, let's call it primary energy consumption.

And these are the fundamental inputs we've been talking about. Biomass, coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, solar, wind, hydro, big dams, and waves and tides, potentially all other, this little teeny thing today. So those are the, these are what come into the system. I didn't say electricity. You have to make electricity. Electricity is not primary energy. We make it.

And these are the fundamental inputs we've been talking about. Biomass, coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, solar, wind, hydro, big dams, and waves and tides, potentially all other, this little teeny thing today. So those are the, these are what come into the system. I didn't say electricity. You have to make electricity. Electricity is not primary energy. We make it.

So the things that make electricity. If you look across the world today, all in, we consume about 620 exajoules of energy. That means nothing to anybody. What's an exajoule? It's a big number, okay? 620 exajoules powers 8.3 billion people to varying levels. just take it as 620 something, some unit, to lift everybody up to 50-50 would take almost three times that. Almost 1800 exajoules.

So the things that make electricity. If you look across the world today, all in, we consume about 620 exajoules of energy. That means nothing to anybody. What's an exajoule? It's a big number, okay? 620 exajoules powers 8.3 billion people to varying levels. just take it as 620 something, some unit, to lift everybody up to 50-50 would take almost three times that. Almost 1800 exajoules.

For the oil and gas people, that's about 1,800 trillion cubic feet of gas a year, equivalent. Other units of energy measurement that are used. Tripling, though. So 3x. Now, that's not scarcity. That's not saying, hey, we're running out. Everybody's got to conserve. You can only have one pair of shoes and two pair of clothing. No, no, that's saying...

For the oil and gas people, that's about 1,800 trillion cubic feet of gas a year, equivalent. Other units of energy measurement that are used. Tripling, though. So 3x. Now, that's not scarcity. That's not saying, hey, we're running out. Everybody's got to conserve. You can only have one pair of shoes and two pair of clothing. No, no, that's saying...

We've got to find out how to make triple our energy, our primary energy in the world. Is it there? Some worry about that. Well, yes. The answer is there's a lot of energy in the world. It's in a variety of forms. But the density, here's where density comes back in. If I'm going to make another 1200 exodules or up to 1800, I've got to use the densest forms of energy.

We've got to find out how to make triple our energy, our primary energy in the world. Is it there? Some worry about that. Well, yes. The answer is there's a lot of energy in the world. It's in a variety of forms. But the density, here's where density comes back in. If I'm going to make another 1200 exodules or up to 1800, I've got to use the densest forms of energy.

That little uranium pellet, uranium oxides, thorium, another radioactive element. These are both fission inputs. And in the next period of time, we're not that far away from fusion working, not commercial yet, but fusion, that's hydrogen. It's a pretty common thing.

That little uranium pellet, uranium oxides, thorium, another radioactive element. These are both fission inputs. And in the next period of time, we're not that far away from fusion working, not commercial yet, but fusion, that's hydrogen. It's a pretty common thing.

So we've gotta go, we've gotta get our heads around this idea that to literally lift the world out of poverty and all the good things that come from that, we gotta go dense, dense, dense. You're not going to be doing it with low-density forms of energy. There'll be good pieces of that portfolio, the optionality and energy. I don't mind solar and wind where it's sunny and windy.

So we've gotta go, we've gotta get our heads around this idea that to literally lift the world out of poverty and all the good things that come from that, we gotta go dense, dense, dense. You're not going to be doing it with low-density forms of energy. There'll be good pieces of that portfolio, the optionality and energy. I don't mind solar and wind where it's sunny and windy.

You got a lot of sun here. Use it, you know, in places that make sense. It's a really, a very efficient use of the sun when you've got great sun. You know, you're in lower latitudes. You don't have many clouds. Winter doesn't happen much. Da-da-da-da. That's a pretty good... Use of sun and that use is called capacity factor.

You got a lot of sun here. Use it, you know, in places that make sense. It's a really, a very efficient use of the sun when you've got great sun. You know, you're in lower latitudes. You don't have many clouds. Winter doesn't happen much. Da-da-da-da. That's a pretty good... Use of sun and that use is called capacity factor.

So if I've got 100 units of sun and I can make it generate 30 units throughout the year, that's a 30% capacity factor. And that's pretty good for solar. Nuclear, 90% or more capacity factor. Nuclear is always on.

So if I've got 100 units of sun and I can make it generate 30 units throughout the year, that's a 30% capacity factor. And that's pretty good for solar. Nuclear, 90% or more capacity factor. Nuclear is always on.

But there are no energy poor countries.

But there are no energy poor countries.

And a lot of other things, petrochemicals and all sorts of things that we use. fossil fuels for that most people don't know.

And a lot of other things, petrochemicals and all sorts of things that we use. fossil fuels for that most people don't know.

So let's separate again our thought of electricity and molecules. That's just the simplest form we can do, electricity, molecules. Electricity is used for quite a few things and more things now. We need it. Electrons are very useful things and electric motors are actually very efficient machines. More efficient than a combustion engine, the motor. The battery isn't.

So let's separate again our thought of electricity and molecules. That's just the simplest form we can do, electricity, molecules. Electricity is used for quite a few things and more things now. We need it. Electrons are very useful things and electric motors are actually very efficient machines. More efficient than a combustion engine, the motor. The battery isn't.

The battery is less dense than dung on a per unit weight basis. A battery is a lot less dense than dung. Yes, on a weight basis. That's why it takes a thousand pounds of battery to drive a car. A Tesla S is a thousand pound battery pack, 7,000 batteries the size of your cell phone and that under the whole floor bed. It just, it has physics limits, okay.

The battery is less dense than dung on a per unit weight basis. A battery is a lot less dense than dung. Yes, on a weight basis. That's why it takes a thousand pounds of battery to drive a car. A Tesla S is a thousand pound battery pack, 7,000 batteries the size of your cell phone and that under the whole floor bed. It just, it has physics limits, okay.

So as we, but let's do electrons and molecules. We need molecules for a lot of useful things and burning them arguably is maybe not the best use if we had perfect other options for them now. I can electrify some things, vehicles, small cars, bigger cars. I can do hybrids for bigger buses. But because there's so much weight in that battery, when I fly here on an airplane...

So as we, but let's do electrons and molecules. We need molecules for a lot of useful things and burning them arguably is maybe not the best use if we had perfect other options for them now. I can electrify some things, vehicles, small cars, bigger cars. I can do hybrids for bigger buses. But because there's so much weight in that battery, when I fly here on an airplane...

The whole airplane would be a battery. Right, right, right. To get me to go.

The whole airplane would be a battery. Right, right, right. To get me to go.

Yeah, it's kind of cool. It's an electric plane, but it's doing nothing else. Right, right, right. And so go up that density curve again. I'm putting jet fuel, diesel, in those wings. Really dense energy. And that allows me to haul weight in humans and luggage and freight and other things. So you have to think about the end uses of energy.

Yeah, it's kind of cool. It's an electric plane, but it's doing nothing else. Right, right, right. And so go up that density curve again. I'm putting jet fuel, diesel, in those wings. Really dense energy. And that allows me to haul weight in humans and luggage and freight and other things. So you have to think about the end uses of energy.

It's not crazy to burn molecules when they're the only thing that will do that job. The rockets that Elon Musk launches and takes to space aren't flying on batteries. Those are on LNG, and they're actually on natural gas, but hydrogen too. So molecules have a great use for some things. natural gas and oil, electrons have a great use for other things.

It's not crazy to burn molecules when they're the only thing that will do that job. The rockets that Elon Musk launches and takes to space aren't flying on batteries. Those are on LNG, and they're actually on natural gas, but hydrogen too. So molecules have a great use for some things. natural gas and oil, electrons have a great use for other things.

We should try to get to the point where we're using the right form of energy to do the right job. Nuclear makes electricity.

We should try to get to the point where we're using the right form of energy to do the right job. Nuclear makes electricity.

And heat. You make a lot of heat with nuclear.

And heat. You make a lot of heat with nuclear.

My nephew was the third in command, or my cousin, third in command of a nuclear attack sub. I've been on it. It's an incredible little... I didn't get to see it, but the core is not very big.

My nephew was the third in command, or my cousin, third in command of a nuclear attack sub. I've been on it. It's an incredible little... I didn't get to see it, but the core is not very big.

And you're putting... quite a bit of oomph to drive that patented propeller.

And you're putting... quite a bit of oomph to drive that patented propeller.

I can't remember, 50s and 60s, somewhere in there, and also aircraft carriers.

I can't remember, 50s and 60s, somewhere in there, and also aircraft carriers.

Yeah, they're... When I was young, I was trained to be terrified of nuclear war. It was a Cold War. I mean, in kindergarten, I got under my desk in drills and hid, preparing for a nuclear attack, Jordan. Because I knew the desk would protect me from a nuclear- Yes, of course, of course. Yeah, I was safe under the little desk. So my generation grew up, your generation are scared of that.

Yeah, they're... When I was young, I was trained to be terrified of nuclear war. It was a Cold War. I mean, in kindergarten, I got under my desk in drills and hid, preparing for a nuclear attack, Jordan. Because I knew the desk would protect me from a nuclear- Yes, of course, of course. Yeah, I was safe under the little desk. So my generation grew up, your generation are scared of that.

Oh, definitely. And there's still some reverberation in fear. Fear is extremely powerful. You know this better than I do as a psychologist. It's a powerful motivator. And it inhibits logical thinking sometimes. I mean, the beginning of wisdom is do away with fear, okay? But that's the fear we were trained with. Young people today haven't had that fear of nuclear baked into them.

Oh, definitely. And there's still some reverberation in fear. Fear is extremely powerful. You know this better than I do as a psychologist. It's a powerful motivator. And it inhibits logical thinking sometimes. I mean, the beginning of wisdom is do away with fear, okay? But that's the fear we were trained with. Young people today haven't had that fear of nuclear baked into them.

They've had climate baked into them.

They've had climate baked into them.

They're terrified of that. And they literally are gutturally terrified of that. They are emotionally, psychologically depressed. don't want to have kids, get married, suicidal.

They're terrified of that. And they literally are gutturally terrified of that. They are emotionally, psychologically depressed. don't want to have kids, get married, suicidal.

In a productive world. Right. If you aren't allowed to be productive, you don't have the energy to be productive. It depends on where you are on that productivity scale. But, you know, Maslow outlined it pretty elegantly, I think, when he looked at the hierarchy from self-actualization kind of on down through love. But those bottom two tiers, safety, security, these things are made.

In a productive world. Right. If you aren't allowed to be productive, you don't have the energy to be productive. It depends on where you are on that productivity scale. But, you know, Maslow outlined it pretty elegantly, I think, when he looked at the hierarchy from self-actualization kind of on down through love. But those bottom two tiers, safety, security, these things are made.

I know those are addressed by energy and wealth. the fundamental physio things that we need, physical things we need, and safety and security, those bottom two tiers in that pyramid, energy and wealth. That lifts people up. So that's what we're talking about here with 7 billion people, is the fundamental things that make everybody safer, more secure, and productive.

I know those are addressed by energy and wealth. the fundamental physio things that we need, physical things we need, and safety and security, those bottom two tiers in that pyramid, energy and wealth. That lifts people up. So that's what we're talking about here with 7 billion people, is the fundamental things that make everybody safer, more secure, and productive.

Food in your stomach, some clothes on your back, a shelter. some climate control, perhaps if you're living in a hot place or a cold place, et cetera, clean water to drink. These are healthcare, education. These are fundamental things.

Food in your stomach, some clothes on your back, a shelter. some climate control, perhaps if you're living in a hot place or a cold place, et cetera, clean water to drink. These are healthcare, education. These are fundamental things.

Big time, big time. That is literally what drives a lot of those things. So you get to 7 billion people, that's a lot of energy. And you asked the question, do we have it? Are we running out? We would run out if we were using hay and wood and cutting biomass and dung. There's not enough of that to do. 8.3 billion people and growing.

Big time, big time. That is literally what drives a lot of those things. So you get to 7 billion people, that's a lot of energy. And you asked the question, do we have it? Are we running out? We would run out if we were using hay and wood and cutting biomass and dung. There's not enough of that to do. 8.3 billion people and growing.

We can talk about population because it's fascinating demographics, but there's not enough of that. Coal, there's quite a bit of coal still left in the world. Hundreds a year supply in the US. Asia has a lot of coal, blah, blah. Other impacts of coal from burning it.

We can talk about population because it's fascinating demographics, but there's not enough of that. Coal, there's quite a bit of coal still left in the world. Hundreds a year supply in the US. Asia has a lot of coal, blah, blah. Other impacts of coal from burning it.

It's solvable. The thing that you have to do, though, you want to say, what's my energy returned on my energy invested? That's a metric, EROI, it's called. And so how much energy does it take throughout the whole energy system to get useful energy out? With coal... You're mining it, moving it on trains, barges, trucks, you burn it.

It's solvable. The thing that you have to do, though, you want to say, what's my energy returned on my energy invested? That's a metric, EROI, it's called. And so how much energy does it take throughout the whole energy system to get useful energy out? With coal... You're mining it, moving it on trains, barges, trucks, you burn it.

And if you're gonna get out the SOX and the NOX and the particulates and the mercury and the CO2, each one of those things is a bolt-on system that runs on more energy. So you're lowering your EROI the more you clean up that coal. And it's still useful. It still has a decent return even after all that, but it's expensive because every one of those things isn't just energy, it's money.

And if you're gonna get out the SOX and the NOX and the particulates and the mercury and the CO2, each one of those things is a bolt-on system that runs on more energy. So you're lowering your EROI the more you clean up that coal. And it's still useful. It still has a decent return even after all that, but it's expensive because every one of those things isn't just energy, it's money.

So now I've taken coal from affordable and reliable to kind of expensive, more expensive and reliable. China doesn't do all those things. Sometimes their scrubbers are on, sometimes they're off. Depends on what their economy is needing and the cost of electricity. We don't do that here. You turn off those here in regulated societies, you get massive fines or go to prison as you should.

So now I've taken coal from affordable and reliable to kind of expensive, more expensive and reliable. China doesn't do all those things. Sometimes their scrubbers are on, sometimes they're off. Depends on what their economy is needing and the cost of electricity. We don't do that here. You turn off those here in regulated societies, you get massive fines or go to prison as you should.

So that's the nice part about density again, oil a little bit less of those scrubbers, natural gas, you don't need any of that. You don't need CO2 if you wanna remove it, but there's a little bit of particulate in natural gas, not much, not much mercury, a little sulfur. Sometimes there's sulfur gases scrubbed out, but a lot less work needs to be done to make natural gas clean.

So that's the nice part about density again, oil a little bit less of those scrubbers, natural gas, you don't need any of that. You don't need CO2 if you wanna remove it, but there's a little bit of particulate in natural gas, not much, not much mercury, a little sulfur. Sometimes there's sulfur gases scrubbed out, but a lot less work needs to be done to make natural gas clean.

And we clean it up in our, and we cook with it in our homes. You know, it's not, I don't worry about that. There's some studies that say you should, I'm not. So that's the beauty of energy density.

And we clean it up in our, and we cook with it in our homes. You know, it's not, I don't worry about that. There's some studies that say you should, I'm not. So that's the beauty of energy density.

Depends on what you have to worry about.

Depends on what you have to worry about.

Looking pretty good.

Looking pretty good.

Looking pretty good if you're cooking with wood. LPG is saving so many lives in this world, replacing wood and charcoal and huts and homes. And I'm not talking a few lives. There are 3 billion people and 2.8 billion people in the world today that cook indoors with solid biomass. And 3 million of them die every year still, Jordan. 3 million people from breathing indoor smoke, particulates.

Looking pretty good if you're cooking with wood. LPG is saving so many lives in this world, replacing wood and charcoal and huts and homes. And I'm not talking a few lives. There are 3 billion people and 2.8 billion people in the world today that cook indoors with solid biomass. And 3 million of them die every year still, Jordan. 3 million people from breathing indoor smoke, particulates.

The major pollution problem. That's it. In cities outdoor, this is just indoor. There's another two, at least that many outdoors breathing indoor particulate pollution, real pollution. So you replace that with an LPG tank, liquid propane, you save lives, instantly save lives, or an induction cooktop, something that doesn't have that happening.

The major pollution problem. That's it. In cities outdoor, this is just indoor. There's another two, at least that many outdoors breathing indoor particulate pollution, real pollution. So you replace that with an LPG tank, liquid propane, you save lives, instantly save lives, or an induction cooktop, something that doesn't have that happening.

It's an incredible life-saving technology, if you will. So on the abundance thing, back to that, here we are, there's a lot of natural gas in the world, okay, a lot.

It's an incredible life-saving technology, if you will. So on the abundance thing, back to that, here we are, there's a lot of natural gas in the world, okay, a lot.

If you want to clean up the atmosphere emissions, as well as the land, the air and the water, you have to accelerate economic development.

If you want to clean up the atmosphere emissions, as well as the land, the air and the water, you have to accelerate economic development.

Correct.

Correct.

No, we're not out of energy options, we're out of ideas sometimes.

No, we're not out of energy options, we're out of ideas sometimes.

So in 08, Mr. Obama brought me up to ask me to be Assistant Secretary of Energy under Stephen Chu. 08, first term, first month Obama, and I visited and we talked and they were looking at me doing fossil energy, coal, oil, gas, strategic petroleum reserve and other things.

So in 08, Mr. Obama brought me up to ask me to be Assistant Secretary of Energy under Stephen Chu. 08, first term, first month Obama, and I visited and we talked and they were looking at me doing fossil energy, coal, oil, gas, strategic petroleum reserve and other things.

And I spoke with the secretary and this was right as that fracking revolution, evolution really, because I know that it's kind of an evolution of technologies, came together. The Barnett shale really kicked it off in 2001 and two with George Mitchell. But by 08... We saw the Barnett, the Fayetteville had gotten started, the Haynesville was coming, the Marcellus is just getting started.

And I spoke with the secretary and this was right as that fracking revolution, evolution really, because I know that it's kind of an evolution of technologies, came together. The Barnett shale really kicked it off in 2001 and two with George Mitchell. But by 08... We saw the Barnett, the Fayetteville had gotten started, the Haynesville was coming, the Marcellus is just getting started.

These are big shale gas basins in the country. And you mean big. Big. They're huge. They're big. Right. And oil followed, more technology. Natural gas is a little molecule. I think you'll be interested in this. Why do you have to frack? Why do you have to crack rock? Okay, and here's why.

These are big shale gas basins in the country. And you mean big. Big. They're huge. They're big. Right. And oil followed, more technology. Natural gas is a little molecule. I think you'll be interested in this. Why do you have to frack? Why do you have to crack rock? Okay, and here's why.

And when you're cracking rock, what you're doing is putting water, which is not very compressible, under a lot of pressure, and then putting it into the ground under pressure and releasing that pressure. And that pressure release cracks rock down there a couple, five, six, 10,000 feet. Cracks the rock, makes these little teeny cracks. Why?

And when you're cracking rock, what you're doing is putting water, which is not very compressible, under a lot of pressure, and then putting it into the ground under pressure and releasing that pressure. And that pressure release cracks rock down there a couple, five, six, 10,000 feet. Cracks the rock, makes these little teeny cracks. Why?

Well, because the holes where the natural gas is, are, the molecules are, are about, they're so small, they're in the nanometer scale. I could fit about a hundred of those little holes across the width of one human hair.

Well, because the holes where the natural gas is, are, the molecules are, are about, they're so small, they're in the nanometer scale. I could fit about a hundred of those little holes across the width of one human hair.

Yeah, there are a hundred of those little teeny pools across one human hair. And so the molecules, it's not easy to get them out of there. Now, so you gotta crack that rock. You're creating, you got little teeny rooms and you're creating little pathways, doorways and hallways for them to flow toward a lower pressure area.

Yeah, there are a hundred of those little teeny pools across one human hair. And so the molecules, it's not easy to get them out of there. Now, so you gotta crack that rock. You're creating, you got little teeny rooms and you're creating little pathways, doorways and hallways for them to flow toward a lower pressure area.

And that wellbore, when it comes down and goes down and cracks rock, and then you open it up, you've created a low pressure pipe and everything wants to go towards low pressure, like humans. Hey, less pressure, give me less pressure, I'm good. I don't like the high pressure. In they go, and they start to flow up. So that's why fracking, hydraulic fracturing, came about.

And that wellbore, when it comes down and goes down and cracks rock, and then you open it up, you've created a low pressure pipe and everything wants to go towards low pressure, like humans. Hey, less pressure, give me less pressure, I'm good. I don't like the high pressure. In they go, and they start to flow up. So that's why fracking, hydraulic fracturing, came about.

It had been happening again for five decades.

It had been happening again for five decades.

Cracking vertical. And then the horizontal wells, they came together. So that changed things here. Our natural gas production in 2007-8 from shale, that's the name of these rocks, was about 4% of our natural gas came from shale in 08. Today, 70%. Wow.

Cracking vertical. And then the horizontal wells, they came together. So that changed things here. Our natural gas production in 2007-8 from shale, that's the name of these rocks, was about 4% of our natural gas came from shale in 08. Today, 70%. Wow.

And oil was essentially nothing from shale, and now it's 63% of our oil comes from shale.

And oil was essentially nothing from shale, and now it's 63% of our oil comes from shale.

Less than two decades. And the oil molecule, it's a big, complicated, remember, complex carbon-hydrogen change. You can't get it out of those little holes very easy. Technology continued to evolve to allow the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, and West Texas Permian Basin to produce oil. This is revolutionary. Now look, so that's supply. Won't last forever, but this is important.

Less than two decades. And the oil molecule, it's a big, complicated, remember, complex carbon-hydrogen change. You can't get it out of those little holes very easy. Technology continued to evolve to allow the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, and West Texas Permian Basin to produce oil. This is revolutionary. Now look, so that's supply. Won't last forever, but this is important.

We've been producing those now for 20 years, some of those basins, and 10 years. The total amount of oil and gas in those basins is called the resource.

We've been producing those now for 20 years, some of those basins, and 10 years. The total amount of oil and gas in those basins is called the resource.

It's pretty accurate. My organization did those studies for 20 years, and others have too. But we did that resource estimates of all the big shale basins at UT Austin, Bureau of Economic Geology. You can estimate what's in place. The reserve, and this is where language gets kind of funny, is what you can produce with today's technology at today's price. Price changes, reserves change.

It's pretty accurate. My organization did those studies for 20 years, and others have too. But we did that resource estimates of all the big shale basins at UT Austin, Bureau of Economic Geology. You can estimate what's in place. The reserve, and this is where language gets kind of funny, is what you can produce with today's technology at today's price. Price changes, reserves change.

You know, I can produce more at a higher price. The price goes down. So the reserves change. And then you got your production. Of all those tanks, those resources, we've only produced about 5%. in those 20 years. There's 95% still down there. It's hard to get out.

You know, I can produce more at a higher price. The price goes down. So the reserves change. And then you got your production. Of all those tanks, those resources, we've only produced about 5%. in those 20 years. There's 95% still down there. It's hard to get out.

I do, I do, yeah. Yeah, so all those basins added up in the US is about 500 billion barrels equivalent. That's a lot, big numbers. The oil sands in Alberta, I don't know those numbers precisely, but they're big numbers, too. They're in that range, but very hard to get out.

I do, I do, yeah. Yeah, so all those basins added up in the US is about 500 billion barrels equivalent. That's a lot, big numbers. The oil sands in Alberta, I don't know those numbers precisely, but they're big numbers, too. They're in that range, but very hard to get out.

Completely different technology. Our first film, Switch.

Completely different technology. Our first film, Switch.

And if you're allowed, and the environmental regulations allow it. Right. Because the cool part about, we featured those in our first film, the stuff at the surface that they're mining... And for your viewer, I mean, these are conventional oil reservoir that's been impacted by surface waters and the oil, all the light stuff came off. So it's really heavy kind of tar-like oil.

And if you're allowed, and the environmental regulations allow it. Right. Because the cool part about, we featured those in our first film, the stuff at the surface that they're mining... And for your viewer, I mean, these are conventional oil reservoir that's been impacted by surface waters and the oil, all the light stuff came off. So it's really heavy kind of tar-like oil.

So for your listeners, that's what we're talking about here. So you got to move tar out of rock. Not easy. You can mine it at the surface. That's pretty environmentally destructive, but that's 20%. 80% is below the surface. And what they do is they drill wells down in and they inject steam at high pressures because when you put heat on tar, it becomes a liquid and kind of a sludge.

So for your listeners, that's what we're talking about here. So you got to move tar out of rock. Not easy. You can mine it at the surface. That's pretty environmentally destructive, but that's 20%. 80% is below the surface. And what they do is they drill wells down in and they inject steam at high pressures because when you put heat on tar, it becomes a liquid and kind of a sludge.

And then they flow this sludge in and they add more natural gas and other things and they make it into an oil again and move it away. So they're literally taking... tar or heavy oil sands away that way. Huge resource.

And then they flow this sludge in and they add more natural gas and other things and they make it into an oil again and move it away. So they're literally taking... tar or heavy oil sands away that way. Huge resource.

No, it's not. And here's the biggest, here's kind of the mic drop on it all. Okay. The U.S. and Canada and Argentina are really the only ones producing oil and gas from shale today. We're not the only ones that have it.

No, it's not. And here's the biggest, here's kind of the mic drop on it all. Okay. The U.S. and Canada and Argentina are really the only ones producing oil and gas from shale today. We're not the only ones that have it.

But the big ones, because these are the source rocks, it's the kitchen. This is where the oil was made millions of years ago. and then leaked off into these conventional reservoirs with time, heat and pressure and time, up comes the oil. Those are the source rocks, that's what they're called. Mer de huile in French, you know, the mother of oil, sits down there.

But the big ones, because these are the source rocks, it's the kitchen. This is where the oil was made millions of years ago. and then leaked off into these conventional reservoirs with time, heat and pressure and time, up comes the oil. Those are the source rocks, that's what they're called. Mer de huile in French, you know, the mother of oil, sits down there.

Where you find these conventional oil and gas fields, like we have in the Middle East and Russia and South America, et cetera, there are mature source rocks leaking oil and gas. Some of the most mature and biggest source rocks in the world are in, you guessed it, the Middle East and Russia. They've been quietly testing them, quietly seeing, hey, let's learn that technology. How do we get ready?

Where you find these conventional oil and gas fields, like we have in the Middle East and Russia and South America, et cetera, there are mature source rocks leaking oil and gas. Some of the most mature and biggest source rocks in the world are in, you guessed it, the Middle East and Russia. They've been quietly testing them, quietly seeing, hey, let's learn that technology. How do we get ready?

Because it's more expensive.

Because it's more expensive.

And they still have these conventional reservoirs, a lot of oil and gas in the Middle East, a lot of gas in Russia, some oil, big basins.

And they still have these conventional reservoirs, a lot of oil and gas in the Middle East, a lot of gas in Russia, some oil, big basins.

Yes.

Yes.

Well, here we've literally created a production curve that is higher than it was in the 70s. King Hubbard, a famous guy that worked with my dad, Shell, predicted peak oil in the US in 73. And he was right until we turned it around with Shell. And now we're producing more oil than we ever have. So it will be more than they've produced so far in each of those regions, at least.

Well, here we've literally created a production curve that is higher than it was in the 70s. King Hubbard, a famous guy that worked with my dad, Shell, predicted peak oil in the US in 73. And he was right until we turned it around with Shell. And now we're producing more oil than we ever have. So it will be more than they've produced so far in each of those regions, at least.

They're quietly testing them. Why? And guess who was against fracking? If you chase the money back in the early 2000s, the anti-fracking movement, you chase it to Russia and the Middle East, and it's not even that hard to track it.

They're quietly testing them. Why? And guess who was against fracking? If you chase the money back in the early 2000s, the anti-fracking movement, you chase it to Russia and the Middle East, and it's not even that hard to track it.

I wrote a piece about that. I mean, like, oh, no, the U.S. is coming back. All of a sudden, OPEC doesn't control. It was a wild time.

I wrote a piece about that. I mean, like, oh, no, the U.S. is coming back. All of a sudden, OPEC doesn't control. It was a wild time.

Yeah, and it lights on fire and da-da-da-da-da-da-da. Documentary films.

Yeah, and it lights on fire and da-da-da-da-da-da-da. Documentary films.

Yes. So, well, and you've got to do fracking, right? Let me defend that. You know, you can't go out there like the wild west. Fracking is a major industrial operation. It is. You're lining up big trucks around a hole, putting a bunch of water under pressure. You're producing oil and gas. You've got to do it right.

Yes. So, well, and you've got to do fracking, right? Let me defend that. You know, you can't go out there like the wild west. Fracking is a major industrial operation. It is. You're lining up big trucks around a hole, putting a bunch of water under pressure. You're producing oil and gas. You've got to do it right.

And it's regulated. Occasionally there's a bad actor. So what I'm saying here, remember we have 95% still left in the US, very hard to get a lot of it out technologically, but we'll get more. Middle East and Russia haven't even started to release that because the oil they sell to the world's markets today is cheaper. So the arbitrage is better.

And it's regulated. Occasionally there's a bad actor. So what I'm saying here, remember we have 95% still left in the US, very hard to get a lot of it out technologically, but we'll get more. Middle East and Russia haven't even started to release that because the oil they sell to the world's markets today is cheaper. So the arbitrage is better.

It depends on the fields, and I've been there many times. It depends on the fields. But yeah, it's an incredible... There's lots of stories we won't go into, but they're just beautiful reservoirs. Now, some of them are getting kind of old. And the oil doesn't last forever. Remember that leaked off, but they still have their source rocks.

It depends on the fields, and I've been there many times. It depends on the fields. But yeah, it's an incredible... There's lots of stories we won't go into, but they're just beautiful reservoirs. Now, some of them are getting kind of old. And the oil doesn't last forever. Remember that leaked off, but they still have their source rocks.

So I don't want to give people the impression that oil and natural gas are forever. They're not. They're naturally formed. They're not replaceable in human time scales because it took millions of years to cook those plants. But there's a lot of resource still left.

So I don't want to give people the impression that oil and natural gas are forever. They're not. They're naturally formed. They're not replaceable in human time scales because it took millions of years to cook those plants. But there's a lot of resource still left.

Not done.

Not done.

They're not taken dry. We leave a bunch of oil and gas behind in shale and in conventional reservoirs. Think of your driveway, your cement driveway, when you spill a little oil on there. Can you get it out? It's stuck in that limestone. That's just limestone. Cement is limestone. It's stuck forever. It sticks to the rock. And that's what secondary and tertiary recovery processes do.

They're not taken dry. We leave a bunch of oil and gas behind in shale and in conventional reservoirs. Think of your driveway, your cement driveway, when you spill a little oil on there. Can you get it out? It's stuck in that limestone. That's just limestone. Cement is limestone. It's stuck forever. It sticks to the rock. And that's what secondary and tertiary recovery processes do.

They put in carbon dioxide, ironically, CO2 floods. And you can, it changes the way the oil and the rock interact. It's called wettability and releases more oil. So there's these enhanced, but you're putting something kind of, it costs money, just like the bolted on coal. It's expensive. So I'm putting money in the ground to get more oil out.

They put in carbon dioxide, ironically, CO2 floods. And you can, it changes the way the oil and the rock interact. It's called wettability and releases more oil. So there's these enhanced, but you're putting something kind of, it costs money, just like the bolted on coal. It's expensive. So I'm putting money in the ground to get more oil out.

I can always get more oil out, but I don't always get more money out. So the things you put in have to be cheaper than the value of the oil that you produce.

I can always get more oil out, but I don't always get more money out. So the things you put in have to be cheaper than the value of the oil that you produce.

We don't run out of commodities. Why? something better comes along. You described it. The supply demand economics kick in and we say, well, holy crap. We'll switch. Let's invent something better. And there we go.

We don't run out of commodities. Why? something better comes along. You described it. The supply demand economics kick in and we say, well, holy crap. We'll switch. Let's invent something better. And there we go.

Incredibly complicated. And you see the technological uses of these things with energy always changing. I was riding over here today and there's this autonomous car just driving along with us, you know, and so... you don't run out of oil, it becomes too expensive. And back to what we talked about earlier, we start using it for those things that only it can uniquely do. Yeah, right.

Incredibly complicated. And you see the technological uses of these things with energy always changing. I was riding over here today and there's this autonomous car just driving along with us, you know, and so... you don't run out of oil, it becomes too expensive. And back to what we talked about earlier, we start using it for those things that only it can uniquely do. Yeah, right.

Instead of transportation and burning it, Well, maybe we use hybrids or maybe we use fuel cells, hydrogen. There's a lot of hydrogen in the world. You gotta make it, you gotta split the water.

Instead of transportation and burning it, Well, maybe we use hybrids or maybe we use fuel cells, hydrogen. There's a lot of hydrogen in the world. You gotta make it, you gotta split the water.

You take nuclear, you can split the water molecule, hydrolysis essentially, you can split the methane molecule easier, energetically cheaper, and that's called steam reforming. So I'd make hydrogen and I can put it in a fuel cell and drive my cars. So this will, it's economics. Which one's more affordable today? There's optionality out there in the future. We're not gonna run out of oil.

You take nuclear, you can split the water molecule, hydrolysis essentially, you can split the methane molecule easier, energetically cheaper, and that's called steam reforming. So I'd make hydrogen and I can put it in a fuel cell and drive my cars. So this will, it's economics. Which one's more affordable today? There's optionality out there in the future. We're not gonna run out of oil.

And I haven't even talked about one important source of, two important source of natural gas. One is called hydrates. I don't know if you've heard of natural gas.

And I haven't even talked about one important source of, two important source of natural gas. One is called hydrates. I don't know if you've heard of natural gas.

Oceanic and permafrost. You're freezing, they're called clathrates, you're freezing gas molecules. And you're not freezing molecules, you're locking them up in ice. In the deep ocean floor, because it's cold and pressure and dark, and in the permafrost, there's a plethora of methane locked up in ice. They're called hydrates. I don't know if you've heard of them.

Oceanic and permafrost. You're freezing, they're called clathrates, you're freezing gas molecules. And you're not freezing molecules, you're locking them up in ice. In the deep ocean floor, because it's cold and pressure and dark, and in the permafrost, there's a plethora of methane locked up in ice. They're called hydrates. I don't know if you've heard of them.

In the ocean and up in the permafrost.

In the ocean and up in the permafrost.

It's the ice, yeah, that's a decent analogy. It's the ice equivalent of shale rock. You've locked this methane in. How much of that is there? It's bigger than anything we've talked about.

It's the ice, yeah, that's a decent analogy. It's the ice equivalent of shale rock. You've locked this methane in. How much of that is there? It's bigger than anything we've talked about.

They're expensive. Right. So I don't want your listener to say, oh, well, why don't we go do that?

They're expensive. Right. So I don't want your listener to say, oh, well, why don't we go do that?

It doesn't matter if you get rich enough. If you get rich enough and with technology, the cost comes down. And so when you need that thing, there it is.

It doesn't matter if you get rich enough. If you get rich enough and with technology, the cost comes down. And so when you need that thing, there it is.

And then there's this crazy thing. And I, myself... I like to say when I'm completely thought something that was completely wrong, which is often, there was a guy named Thomas Golem and he talked about abiogenic gas, abiotic gas, not from organics.

And then there's this crazy thing. And I, myself... I like to say when I'm completely thought something that was completely wrong, which is often, there was a guy named Thomas Golem and he talked about abiogenic gas, abiotic gas, not from organics.

Russian guy.

Russian guy.

So a really smart guy that I respect tremendously. I was with him in D.C. earlier this week named Jesse Ausubel. He's done so many cool things. Really smart thinker. Jesse Ausubel.

So a really smart guy that I respect tremendously. I was with him in D.C. earlier this week named Jesse Ausubel. He's done so many cool things. Really smart thinker. Jesse Ausubel.

He'd be a good guest. He'd be a great guest. Okay. And he could talk about, he started many things, but one of those was this thing called the Deep Carbon Observatory. And he got for a decade a bunch of smart people together to look at whether there's natural gas, carbon, deep in the earth that couldn't have come from organics. And they concluded, yes, there it is.

He'd be a good guest. He'd be a great guest. Okay. And he could talk about, he started many things, but one of those was this thing called the Deep Carbon Observatory. And he got for a decade a bunch of smart people together to look at whether there's natural gas, carbon, deep in the earth that couldn't have come from organics. And they concluded, yes, there it is.

And there's a lot of work to be done, but there's natural gas in the world still from other terrestrial things that you can make CH4. It doesn't have to be organics in that sense. Carbon is a pretty common element and so is hydrogen. So that work show, we got a lot of thinking to do and that's here on earth. And I might sound a little sanguine about oil and gas.

And there's a lot of work to be done, but there's natural gas in the world still from other terrestrial things that you can make CH4. It doesn't have to be organics in that sense. Carbon is a pretty common element and so is hydrogen. So that work show, we got a lot of thinking to do and that's here on earth. And I might sound a little sanguine about oil and gas.

It's there at the right price for the right needs for molecules and then nuclear for electricity.

It's there at the right price for the right needs for molecules and then nuclear for electricity.

So we come back to the original piece here.

So we come back to the original piece here.

There's a great experiment going on right now as we've put more intermittent energy, led by solar and wind, onto grids. How much can you push that? When that sun or wind go away, something has to be there immediately to back that up. to make it continue to work. And it's brutal managing a grid that has things coming and going.

There's a great experiment going on right now as we've put more intermittent energy, led by solar and wind, onto grids. How much can you push that? When that sun or wind go away, something has to be there immediately to back that up. to make it continue to work. And it's brutal managing a grid that has things coming and going.

We should.

We should.

Okay, so... Yeah, so that's this thought that... and I've been in 60 countries in the world, I've been lucky into them, the worst environments in the world, the physical environment, where the worst soil, the worst water, polluted water, local air is where it's poor.

Okay, so... Yeah, so that's this thought that... and I've been in 60 countries in the world, I've been lucky into them, the worst environments in the world, the physical environment, where the worst soil, the worst water, polluted water, local air is where it's poor.

We're not out of energy options, we're out of ideas.

We're not out of energy options, we're out of ideas.

Correct. Right. So your local resources can have limits, right? And gathering of wood, for example, deforestation can have limits. In Nepal now, we take in our second film, Switch On, they've had to restrict gathering of wood. But a lot of people can only cook with biomass. And this is where LPG is so critical to them and induction cooktops because the forests are literally being destroyed.

Correct. Right. So your local resources can have limits, right? And gathering of wood, for example, deforestation can have limits. In Nepal now, we take in our second film, Switch On, they've had to restrict gathering of wood. But a lot of people can only cook with biomass. And this is where LPG is so critical to them and induction cooktops because the forests are literally being destroyed.

Right. Well, it's good to be here with you. And that's a tough situation and tragic. It's dangerous for human lives when you have major blackouts like that. So I always go back to some of the underlying principles of all these things, Jordan. And I am not against any form of energy. In fact, I've put solar in an indigenous village in Colombia, our Waco people. Oh, that's all they had.

Right. Well, it's good to be here with you. And that's a tough situation and tragic. It's dangerous for human lives when you have major blackouts like that. So I always go back to some of the underlying principles of all these things, Jordan. And I am not against any form of energy. In fact, I've put solar in an indigenous village in Colombia, our Waco people. Oh, that's all they had.

harvested right and and uncontrollably so so another thing they grow but natural gas is an excellent substitute for deforestation oh completely right right saves the forest so so okay and oil oil saved the whales we used to use whale oil to light our homes and for other uses and then along comes this natural thing and it really it was kerosene that came out of oil for initially and we put that in lanterns and boy it burned and it didn't wasn't explosive like refined

harvested right and and uncontrollably so so another thing they grow but natural gas is an excellent substitute for deforestation oh completely right right saves the forest so so okay and oil oil saved the whales we used to use whale oil to light our homes and for other uses and then along comes this natural thing and it really it was kerosene that came out of oil for initially and we put that in lanterns and boy it burned and it didn't wasn't explosive like refined

Gasolines are another thing. So there's this wonderful technological transition that happens with energy, energy systems, where we keep getting denser, cleaner, and ironically, more reliable, and in many ways, more affordable, especially if you adjust for the time value of money. That's why we can do so much work with it. Now, What prevents that?

Gasolines are another thing. So there's this wonderful technological transition that happens with energy, energy systems, where we keep getting denser, cleaner, and ironically, more reliable, and in many ways, more affordable, especially if you adjust for the time value of money. That's why we can do so much work with it. Now, What prevents that?

You keep going back and saying, damn it, Scott, why aren't we doing this?

You keep going back and saying, damn it, Scott, why aren't we doing this?

Right.

Right.

Marxist.

Marxist.

Let me support that for a second. Hold that thought for a second. The substrate switching that's going on right now with wealth... So if you look at, and there's reasons this, preface it, some of this might not be good in terms of outcome, but here's what's happening. So I'm going to describe it. Fertility rates against wealth.

Let me support that for a second. Hold that thought for a second. The substrate switching that's going on right now with wealth... So if you look at, and there's reasons this, preface it, some of this might not be good in terms of outcome, but here's what's happening. So I'm going to describe it. Fertility rates against wealth.

If you look at that, highest fertility rates down to the lowest, wealth going this way. The wealthiest countries over here and our fertility rates are below replacement of 2.1.

If you look at that, highest fertility rates down to the lowest, wealth going this way. The wealthiest countries over here and our fertility rates are below replacement of 2.1.

The poorer you are, the higher your fertility rates are. Because you need kids for one thing to do the basic agrarian kinds of things and they die of a tooth infection or diarrhea. It's morally awful in a modern world, so-called. But it isn't fertility rates driving wealth. It's wealth pulling down the fertility rates.

The poorer you are, the higher your fertility rates are. Because you need kids for one thing to do the basic agrarian kinds of things and they die of a tooth infection or diarrhea. It's morally awful in a modern world, so-called. But it isn't fertility rates driving wealth. It's wealth pulling down the fertility rates.

And part of the reason that's happening is, you just described it, we have a brain. People are saying we choose not to have as many kids. Morally, religiously, we could talk about that and you'll be better than me, but this is just what's happening. So the fertility rates in almost every country in the world have been plummeting in the last 30 years, except Africa.

And part of the reason that's happening is, you just described it, we have a brain. People are saying we choose not to have as many kids. Morally, religiously, we could talk about that and you'll be better than me, but this is just what's happening. So the fertility rates in almost every country in the world have been plummeting in the last 30 years, except Africa.

So the point you're making is that- Is population in 50 years, and here comes the last 50.

So the point you're making is that- Is population in 50 years, and here comes the last 50.

We put three and a half kilowatt array to put light bulbs in mud huts and ceiling fans in a refrigerator. They didn't have wires. They didn't have roads. They didn't have pipes. Right. First electricity. Get started with it. Scaling things is the great challenge in energy. And so when you, let's just think about the physics of these things a little bit. intermittent source of energy.

We put three and a half kilowatt array to put light bulbs in mud huts and ceiling fans in a refrigerator. They didn't have wires. They didn't have roads. They didn't have pipes. Right. First electricity. Get started with it. Scaling things is the great challenge in energy. And so when you, let's just think about the physics of these things a little bit. intermittent source of energy.

50 megawatt hours, 50,000 bucks. In 2075, most demographers agree now, given the current trends in fertility rates plummeting, population in this world will peak. And it won't plateau, Jordan. It plummets. It plummets.

50 megawatt hours, 50,000 bucks. In 2075, most demographers agree now, given the current trends in fertility rates plummeting, population in this world will peak. And it won't plateau, Jordan. It plummets. It plummets.

We're going to be going, whoa, this has got to... 2075, my kids will still be alive. And so why am I not concerned about resources? Well, I kind of believe that's coming and there may be a human super cycle. Who knows? We may choose to have more kids and not go extinct. I think we're going to choose to have kids personally. I think so too.

We're going to be going, whoa, this has got to... 2075, my kids will still be alive. And so why am I not concerned about resources? Well, I kind of believe that's coming and there may be a human super cycle. Who knows? We may choose to have more kids and not go extinct. I think we're going to choose to have kids personally. I think so too.

50, 50, 50.

50, 50, 50.

We can do that. Yeah. And this is what Toby Rice and I have started, the Energy Core, C-O-R-P-S, to try to do that very thing, is to not get mud huts and light bulbs, to literally help everybody who's doing great work in this area, lift the world into prosperity. Let's go. What's stopping that?

We can do that. Yeah. And this is what Toby Rice and I have started, the Energy Core, C-O-R-P-S, to try to do that very thing, is to not get mud huts and light bulbs, to literally help everybody who's doing great work in this area, lift the world into prosperity. Let's go. What's stopping that?

Right.

Right.

Yes. And who won? Inflation adjusted. Less. Right.

Yes. And who won? Inflation adjusted. Less. Right.

Early.

Early.

1.2.

1.2.

India went below 2.1 last year, India. Now the population will grow there, that's math. But eventually India peaks and China said, three kids. Will financially incentivize you to have kids? And the kids are saying, no. Yeah. This is big stuff. Yeah, that's for sure. I'd love to be alive in 2075 and be able to sort of see how we start to find things. If growth isn't the measure of good, what is?

India went below 2.1 last year, India. Now the population will grow there, that's math. But eventually India peaks and China said, three kids. Will financially incentivize you to have kids? And the kids are saying, no. Yeah. This is big stuff. Yeah, that's for sure. I'd love to be alive in 2075 and be able to sort of see how we start to find things. If growth isn't the measure of good, what is?

The sun sets at night and it's cloudy sometimes and sometimes it's cloudy for a long time. The Germans have a word for it, Dunkelflotte. Sometimes it hails, too. And sometimes the wind, you know, quits blowing. So... When that happens in the modern world anyway, the developed world, we like our electricity 24 seven. We want it on. And when it's not on, systems fail, big systems.

The sun sets at night and it's cloudy sometimes and sometimes it's cloudy for a long time. The Germans have a word for it, Dunkelflotte. Sometimes it hails, too. And sometimes the wind, you know, quits blowing. So... When that happens in the modern world anyway, the developed world, we like our electricity 24 seven. We want it on. And when it's not on, systems fail, big systems.

How does a generation of young people take care of us oldies for the next 50 years? Because there's more of us than them in rich societies.

How does a generation of young people take care of us oldies for the next 50 years? Because there's more of us than them in rich societies.

Or he's having enough kids too.

Or he's having enough kids too.

But in poor societies, it's young. There's a population pyramid. It's young, poor societies, and they die. Yeah. Maybe into the 50s. And then you get into these moderate societies, wealthy. And in rich societies, the whole thing inverts. We're old. We're toppling over because of this very issue. And this is non-trivial stuff. That's really important.

But in poor societies, it's young. There's a population pyramid. It's young, poor societies, and they die. Yeah. Maybe into the 50s. And then you get into these moderate societies, wealthy. And in rich societies, the whole thing inverts. We're old. We're toppling over because of this very issue. And this is non-trivial stuff. That's really important.

Especially if you have to put a time term on it.

Especially if you have to put a time term on it.

Working Group 1, which is kind of the technical group that looks at the models and some of the outcomes of those things. Working Group 1, Chapter 12. Then you expand all sections and go to Table 12.12 and this big thing. You showed me that. There's a table here. And I have a lot of respect for the IPCC for publishing this table.

Working Group 1, which is kind of the technical group that looks at the models and some of the outcomes of those things. Working Group 1, Chapter 12. Then you expand all sections and go to Table 12.12 and this big thing. You showed me that. There's a table here. And I have a lot of respect for the IPCC for publishing this table.

Because... It shows with the highest degree of confidence, which is hard, statistically highest degree of confidence, what are the impacts, the extreme weather impacts that have emerged from the historical past so far? And the past being 100 years, because that's how far we can measure it, or less. Right. Of all these things... What has emerged from the past so far?

Because... It shows with the highest degree of confidence, which is hard, statistically highest degree of confidence, what are the impacts, the extreme weather impacts that have emerged from the historical past so far? And the past being 100 years, because that's how far we can measure it, or less. Right. Of all these things... What has emerged from the past so far?

In Jordan, there's only three things. It's gotten warmer, the oceans have gotten warmer, and one other thing.

In Jordan, there's only three things. It's gotten warmer, the oceans have gotten warmer, and one other thing.

Yeah, and then they run it to 2050 and 2100, the composite models. In the worst warming scenario, RCP 8.5, The worst, no climate scientists really think that's gonna happen, but let's run the worst. What's gonna emerge? Not much more emerges.

Yeah, and then they run it to 2050 and 2100, the composite models. In the worst warming scenario, RCP 8.5, The worst, no climate scientists really think that's gonna happen, but let's run the worst. What's gonna emerge? Not much more emerges.

And by 2100, so if you look at the white space in that table, and again, you bring the degree of confidence lower, stuff could start to emerge with a 50-50 or 70% or 30% confidence. But when you're up there, what's really emerged with high, high confidence There's a ton of white space in that table. It's really important to understand.

And by 2100, so if you look at the white space in that table, and again, you bring the degree of confidence lower, stuff could start to emerge with a 50-50 or 70% or 30% confidence. But when you're up there, what's really emerged with high, high confidence There's a ton of white space in that table. It's really important to understand.

I'm not saying that... I don't think that... I think humans have helped to warm the planet some. I think CO2 and methane have done that. 280 parts per million up to 430.

I'm not saying that... I don't think that... I think humans have helped to warm the planet some. I think CO2 and methane have done that. 280 parts per million up to 430.

And it's greener, it's food. There's pros and there's trade-offs for everything. Of course. Everything in the world has trade-offs, okay? And change has costs, right?

And it's greener, it's food. There's pros and there's trade-offs for everything. Of course. Everything in the world has trade-offs, okay? And change has costs, right?

Any rapid transformation... Change scares people. Yeah, and it disrupts ecosystems and... But this table says to me, hey, young people especially, it's not an existential threat. Humans aren't gone in 15 years. There's some time in here to think wisely, do wisely, react wisely. And then you compound that with the population demographics.

Any rapid transformation... Change scares people. Yeah, and it disrupts ecosystems and... But this table says to me, hey, young people especially, it's not an existential threat. Humans aren't gone in 15 years. There's some time in here to think wisely, do wisely, react wisely. And then you compound that with the population demographics.

And our energy access and lifting the world all up from poverty so they don't remain anchored down here. Seven billion people and we're over here. That doesn't end well, Jordan. No, no, that's right. That never ends well. You look at any historical country region in the world and you're growing disparity.

And our energy access and lifting the world all up from poverty so they don't remain anchored down here. Seven billion people and we're over here. That doesn't end well, Jordan. No, no, that's right. That never ends well. You look at any historical country region in the world and you're growing disparity.

So there's a great experiment going on right now as we've put more intermittent energy, but it's led by solar and wind onto grids. And how much can you push that? Because what has to happen when you increase the percentage of intermittent energy on an electric grid is when the, because we consume electrons in real time, right? You generate them, you use them.

So there's a great experiment going on right now as we've put more intermittent energy, but it's led by solar and wind onto grids. And how much can you push that? Because what has to happen when you increase the percentage of intermittent energy on an electric grid is when the, because we consume electrons in real time, right? You generate them, you use them.

The masses rise and they say, enough. We have to do this.

The masses rise and they say, enough. We have to do this.

And guess what? No longer ignorant. I put a 40-watt panel on a Maasai house in Kenya. And the first thing they got in this little metal shed cooking indoors, you go in there, you literally can't stand the heat and the smoke. I don't know how they do it and they die. First thing has a cell phone. Everybody in the world knows what's going on in the world now. It's no longer a secret. No secrets.

And guess what? No longer ignorant. I put a 40-watt panel on a Maasai house in Kenya. And the first thing they got in this little metal shed cooking indoors, you go in there, you literally can't stand the heat and the smoke. I don't know how they do it and they die. First thing has a cell phone. Everybody in the world knows what's going on in the world now. It's no longer a secret. No secrets.

So this No secrets. This has to happen. We've got to, we've got to, for everyone, bring everybody up. Yep. Got to unleash energy. Yep. Dense energy.

So this No secrets. This has to happen. We've got to, we've got to, for everyone, bring everybody up. Yep. Got to unleash energy. Yep. Dense energy.

All forms, I like solar and wind for certain things where it's sunny and windy. Great. Yep. They're not going to, they don't address these dams.

All forms, I like solar and wind for certain things where it's sunny and windy. Great. Yep. They're not going to, they don't address these dams.

Nuclear energy. natural gas for molecules, cooking fuels, oil is still important for lots of uses as we've described, coal in some places to continue to lift out of poverty till they can transition away from it. Accelerate economic growth to protect the environment.

Nuclear energy. natural gas for molecules, cooking fuels, oil is still important for lots of uses as we've described, coal in some places to continue to lift out of poverty till they can transition away from it. Accelerate economic growth to protect the environment.

Great.

Great.

I really enjoyed it. Thank you.

I really enjoyed it. Thank you.

When that sun or wind go away, something has to be there immediately, right then in real time to back that up, to make it continue to work. And it's brutal managing a grid that has things coming and going.

When that sun or wind go away, something has to be there immediately, right then in real time to back that up, to make it continue to work. And it's brutal managing a grid that has things coming and going.

Stable inputs, 60 hertz, you know, bring it to us.

Stable inputs, 60 hertz, you know, bring it to us.

Just like, you know, you could fry a blow dryer in your home, you can fry bigger things on a grid if you get big grid fluctuations.

Just like, you know, you could fry a blow dryer in your home, you can fry bigger things on a grid if you get big grid fluctuations.

Right. And let's come back... because it's such a big component of my work and life's passion too. Let's come back to those who don't have much or any in transitioning. So we're kind of starting with the rich world. We're starting here with a modern world, right? The developed world. We have a grid and it's a complicated beast. Grids are not simple. They have multiple different inputs.

Right. And let's come back... because it's such a big component of my work and life's passion too. Let's come back to those who don't have much or any in transitioning. So we're kind of starting with the rich world. We're starting here with a modern world, right? The developed world. We have a grid and it's a complicated beast. Grids are not simple. They have multiple different inputs.

Transmitting across, stepping up to big voltages, transmitting across multiple different wire systems. Think of interstate freeways stepping down to state highways, stepping down to county roads, stepping down to the little driveway that goes to your house. Well, that's what your wires do. So you're having to take...

Transmitting across, stepping up to big voltages, transmitting across multiple different wire systems. Think of interstate freeways stepping down to state highways, stepping down to county roads, stepping down to the little driveway that goes to your house. Well, that's what your wires do. So you're having to take...

Big voltages coming out of power plants and step them down ever more to little homes and industries and businesses.

Big voltages coming out of power plants and step them down ever more to little homes and industries and businesses.

And hospitals, and guess what? AI and data centers that want 99.99% reliability.

And hospitals, and guess what? AI and data centers that want 99.99% reliability.

They have to always be on.

They have to always be on.

You can't fail. Right. Essentially, you can't fail. Right, right. So you're putting all these inputs in, and the more inputs in some ways is good. Optionality in energy is good, like your stock portfolio, your real estate portfolio. I like options in energy. If you get limited to one or two, you're betting a lot on that thing. I don't buy one stock. So I don't mind a lot of inputs.

You can't fail. Right. Essentially, you can't fail. Right, right. So you're putting all these inputs in, and the more inputs in some ways is good. Optionality in energy is good, like your stock portfolio, your real estate portfolio. I like options in energy. If you get limited to one or two, you're betting a lot on that thing. I don't buy one stock. So I don't mind a lot of inputs.

But we've got to realize that they're not all created equal. And when we talk about the intermittent forms of energy, the sun and the wind and some others... They come and go, and that's not judgment. That's just physics. That's just the reality of the way the sun and the wind work. So I got to have something there.

But we've got to realize that they're not all created equal. And when we talk about the intermittent forms of energy, the sun and the wind and some others... They come and go, and that's not judgment. That's just physics. That's just the reality of the way the sun and the wind work. So I got to have something there.

Dunkelflaute.

Dunkelflaute.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Yeah, you're building two systems. And they're redundant, which makes them expensive. Right, right. I mean, you think poor air traffic controllers, I flew today, have a... you know, pull out your hair job, stressful, try managing a grid. Because I've been inside them. ERCOT is the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. Texas has its own grid. It's Texas. We can secede someday from the nations.

Yeah, you're building two systems. And they're redundant, which makes them expensive. Right, right. I mean, you think poor air traffic controllers, I flew today, have a... you know, pull out your hair job, stressful, try managing a grid. Because I've been inside them. ERCOT is the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. Texas has its own grid. It's Texas. We can secede someday from the nations.

We have our own electric grid. I've been inside ERCOT and there are a wall of panels and grid operators and all the different lines and you see arrows flowing different directions and they are literally calling on people, start up that gas plant. Shut it down. It's orchestrating it. It's incredible. Make sure the baseload nuclear is always running. You don't turn nukes on and off. They just run.

We have our own electric grid. I've been inside ERCOT and there are a wall of panels and grid operators and all the different lines and you see arrows flowing different directions and they are literally calling on people, start up that gas plant. Shut it down. It's orchestrating it. It's incredible. Make sure the baseload nuclear is always running. You don't turn nukes on and off. They just run.

We have four nuclear reactors in Texas, two at Comanche Peak, two at South Texas Project. They always run. Coal, it likes to always be on. Yeah. Think of cooking indoors in your kitchen. Would you bring charcoal in and light it up? That takes a while to get started. And once it's going, it takes a long time.

We have four nuclear reactors in Texas, two at Comanche Peak, two at South Texas Project. They always run. Coal, it likes to always be on. Yeah. Think of cooking indoors in your kitchen. Would you bring charcoal in and light it up? That takes a while to get started. And once it's going, it takes a long time.

No, you... Everybody likes it always on. Some are not fully reliable, reliant on it. But so, you know, coal isn't great for that. Nuclear and coal, they're called baseload. They satisfy the minimum demand on that grid. So that's what you want in place. You need that in place, some baseload. That's the foundation. Foundation. Yeah. And natural gas... It's like cooking.

No, you... Everybody likes it always on. Some are not fully reliable, reliant on it. But so, you know, coal isn't great for that. Nuclear and coal, they're called baseload. They satisfy the minimum demand on that grid. So that's what you want in place. You need that in place, some baseload. That's the foundation. Foundation. Yeah. And natural gas... It's like cooking.

I can turn on my gas stove, boom, it's hot.

I can turn on my gas stove, boom, it's hot.

No sulfur, no SOX, no nitrogen in NOx, no mercury, no particulates. Right, right. It has CO2 when you burn it.

No sulfur, no SOX, no nitrogen in NOx, no mercury, no particulates. Right, right. It has CO2 when you burn it.

Well, we won't go there. But let's, yeah, relative to coal and oil, natural gas is extremely clean. It doesn't have all the... Why? Coal is all carbon. Hydrocarbons or oil is complex carbon and hydrogen chains. Natural gas is CH4, methane, one carbon, four hydrogens. It has more energy intensity density, natural gas, than oil and coal. And that sounds weird. Gas? Per unit weight. Right.

Well, we won't go there. But let's, yeah, relative to coal and oil, natural gas is extremely clean. It doesn't have all the... Why? Coal is all carbon. Hydrocarbons or oil is complex carbon and hydrogen chains. Natural gas is CH4, methane, one carbon, four hydrogens. It has more energy intensity density, natural gas, than oil and coal. And that sounds weird. Gas? Per unit weight. Right.

So I take a pound of natural gas, you gotta get it really cold to make it liquid or a super critical form. A pound of natural gas has more energy in it than a pound of oil.

So I take a pound of natural gas, you gotta get it really cold to make it liquid or a super critical form. A pound of natural gas has more energy in it than a pound of oil.

Sure, and we'll come back to the grid. And also I want to say with the grid, the electricity, most people don't think about this, including our leaders. Electricity is only about 25 to 30% of our total energy consumption. 65 to 70% is something else. Okay, and that's all the fuels we use, the molecules, to do transportation and commercial and residential and industrial uses of various kinds.

Sure, and we'll come back to the grid. And also I want to say with the grid, the electricity, most people don't think about this, including our leaders. Electricity is only about 25 to 30% of our total energy consumption. 65 to 70% is something else. Okay, and that's all the fuels we use, the molecules, to do transportation and commercial and residential and industrial uses of various kinds.

Travel's a big piece of it. Residential, commercial, and industrial heating and cooling, basically, to keep buildings cool or warm. And then we use molecules for a lot of other things. We make fertilizers.

Travel's a big piece of it. Residential, commercial, and industrial heating and cooling, basically, to keep buildings cool or warm. And then we use molecules for a lot of other things. We make fertilizers.

At least now, and growing. Ammonia comes from methane. Yeah. And plastics. We use natural gas for plastics. All the things we do in the world that have physical constructs around them are molecules. So we're not going to electrify everything. That's a silly notion. Right, right. It's a soundbite, but it's a silly notion.

At least now, and growing. Ammonia comes from methane. Yeah. And plastics. We use natural gas for plastics. All the things we do in the world that have physical constructs around them are molecules. So we're not going to electrify everything. That's a silly notion. Right, right. It's a soundbite, but it's a silly notion.

Globally.

And even in this country still, we're not over 50% in the US.

Or hot ones.

They're tough. Again, that's a good topic to come to. But I'd say density is a fundamental concept. I did a TEDx talk to 1,100 kids and the way I explained density to start it was with food. I just said, hey, there's kale and there's cow. Right. And they both give me calories. Only marketers think kale is food, by the way. Well, okay. And a lot of people have written me and said, kale?

Can you pick something else? But no, kale and cow are kind of fun. And I threw in ice cream too. But I'd have to eat a whole lot of kale. to get the same calories as a piece of steak, just volumetrically, right? And so the density, when you start thinking about density, you can think about it in food terms now.

Yeah, cows chew forever.

Now, I happen to think, at least for my body, a mixture of food inputs isn't a bad thing. Okay, I don't have allergies, I'm good. So I have vegetables, I have some fruits, I eat meat for sure and other things, and it's a diverse diet. Think about that like energy. So in density terms, we come back to energy. Energy per unit weight.

Things like hay, our first energy ever that our vehicles ate to motor themselves around, and wood, and dung. And other kinds of biomass were the early human-like things used for energy.

And still do. We are consuming more of those things than we ever have still, which is ironic. There are more people. So not percentage-wise, but in actual consumption units, more of those. No, you start to transition naturally. We discover charcoal or coal. Nature took all the plants and made it into a dense carbon form called coal. Nature did the work, time, heat, pressure.

So now I've got dense plants called coal. And in 1804, the very first commercial steam engine for a train in Wales took its first journey, 1804. And there were a billion people in the world in 1804. We'd grown from 110 million in 1000 BC. It was a perfect census back then, we know. They counted them all. 110 million to 1 billion in those thousands of years.

And then we went from 1 billion people to 8.3 billion people in a couple hundred years. The hydrocarbon age kicked off. Then oil, again, carbon and hydrogen, natural gas, mostly methane, or mostly hydrogen and methane.

So this was the accelerator of human development because now we had an energy source that could do useful work for us and humans didn't have to labor and toil ourselves or with a plow animal of some kind.

At least, in the rich world. Yeah, in the rich world. So think about density. We've gone from that. Coal is denser by weight. Oil, denser still. Natural gas, by weight, denser still. And then the magic uranium and thorium radioactive elements come along, and they have a density per unit weight a million times more than wood.

A million times. Yeah. So... All a nuclear reactor does when you put, I say all, you put little uranium pellets that are about a centimeter tall, I've held them, you know, that wide, stuff them into these fuel rods, you activate them, basically you split those things, fission, and that creates a bunch of heat. And those are sitting in a...

Pool of water, the water starts to boil, make steam, turn a turbine, run a generator. It's just a different source of heat than burning coal or burning natural gas or burning oil to make electricity. Different source of heat. And by the way, the sun at the towers, that's heat too. All that's doing is boiling water with a bunch of mirrors.

So along comes uranium and thorium and nuclear, and this changes things. We can do a tremendous amount of work. Let me give the listeners a feel for that density in that little uranium pellet. there's enough energy contained in there to the equivalent energy to drive my car from New York to LA, back to Dallas, one pellet. Think of the gasoline that would take a lot and gasoline is very dense.

Think of, so you start to extrapolate, this is the energy density, certain forms of energy just won the physics game, uranium and natural gas, basically.

That's the first principle. Energy underpins healthy economies. And, and we'll come to this, healthy economies can afford to invest in the environment.

Yeah, we should talk about some of those things. And I've probably been talking about that little triangle for 25 years. Energy, the economy, the environment, and all those investments. The cleanest air in the world, not talking about atmosphere, but the stuff we breathe, particulate matter 2.5, is where it's rich. Right. The worst air in the world is where it's poor. Right.

They just can't afford to clean it up. So this is a fundamental... And it goes that direction. Energy, the economy, the environment.

And ironically, kind of an important point here, if you want to... Clean up the atmosphere emissions as well as the land, the air, and the water. You have to accelerate economic development. You have to accelerate human flourishing.

Not push it down.

And it's not just the billion who are in extreme poverty. Let's call them the emerging world. It's the next four to five billion people that have intermittent energy. Their power comes and goes. Their fuels vary and are not reliable to them. So it's this whole three to four billion people kind of emerging, another three to four billion developing, and 1.4 billion developed.

That's an energy transition hierarchy. That's a global health hierarchy. Right. That's an access to food hierarchy. That's a clean water hierarchy. That's a clean soils hierarchy. That's a clean air hierarchy. Opportunity for your children hierarchy. It's everything. Right. And so if you could picture the average of the wealthy world, 1.3 billion of us, consume about 50 megawatt hours. Right.

And we make about $50,000 per person. 50 megawatt hours per capita, $50,000 per capita. That's the average of the wealthy world annually. The US is higher than that. 50-50, that's kind of convenient. At the end of every year, I tear apart a bunch of data for several weeks. It's my fun. And so I kind of was working on population data, economic data, and energy data at the end of last year.

And this is cool. Conveniently cool. 50-50. Yep. All right. Sticks in your head. 50-50. Seven billion other people in the world are below that. Some way below it. Now, it's not, well, there's a bunch of folks here and then there's some here and then here. It's a complete continuum, all right? But for convenience sake, there's 4 billion people emerging, You know, we have 50 megawatt hours.

They have five or three or one. And proportionately about $1,000 to $5,000 per capita.

Nothing.

Think about that. That's a couple cups of Starbucks or something a day. Yep, yep. And then as you come up through that, there's the developing world and then the developed world. Lumped all these 7 billion people. And they're stuck. Right. They're kind of stuck here. They haven't moved much. They're getting a little bit more. While the wealthy world, we consume more energy,

and we're getting a lot wealthier. Now, we're consuming less energy per unit wealth, which is cool. That curve is flattening. It's really cool. Yeah, that's great.

Yes, yeah, yeah. Yeah, you plateau. And some of it is, well, you don't need any more stuff. You know, there's that reality. But we're making better things, more efficient things. There's a rebound effect.

An economist back in the 1800s, Jevons, showed, well, if you get a really nice, efficient, let's call it a refrigerator, and you're using a lot less energy and it doesn't cost as much, you're gonna get two. And we do. Two cars, two TVs.

Yes, it does. And the removal of choice and basic human freedoms and liberties.

Let's kind of set the idea that we could tell people what they can do aside for a second, even in places that tell people what they can do. I see behind me the Soviet Union post. I went there in 82 for three weeks when it was still the Soviet Union. The Cold War was on. We were behind the Iron Curtain and I was out of college. And it left a huge impression on me.

I saw what it was like to live without liberty. In a command economy. It was very intense. And I went out when I shouldn't at night from hotels and met with young people my age, 22, 23, invincible. These are embedded forever. These are memories that are embedded forever of the look in young people's eyes who are now in their 60s, if they're still here. So what that system does, it doesn't work.

You can't tell people that.

how's that working yeah we'll eventually come back there you know yeah but but getting back uh kind of this dialogue yeah energy economies and that gives you the wherewithal to invest in cleaning up environments and we see that in all sorts of different right and that that final 50 50 50 50 that's the bottom half of the world well no oh okay yeah it's it's uh

So you say, okay, here we are with this continuum, and there's the 50-50. And I ask myself the question, why are we considering light bulbs and mud huds, which I've done, electrified? The world organizations say, well, that's electrified. No, no, that's a light bulb and a mud hud. Right. And it's more than they had. They can read at night. Yeah, yeah. Et cetera, it's a start.

If we had a light bulb in a mud hut here, we'd call it a brownout, Jordan. We would be in a brownout situation. We'd be one lamp. So what would it take really to lift seven billion people in various stages to 50 megawatts, hours, and 50,000 bucks? So I ran the numbers. And then by when? So it turns out the world today, all in, let's call it primary energy consumption.

And these are the fundamental inputs we've been talking about. Biomass, coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, solar, wind, hydro, big dams, and waves and tides, potentially all other, this little teeny thing today. So those are the, these are what come into the system. I didn't say electricity. You have to make electricity. Electricity is not primary energy. We make it.

So the things that make electricity. If you look across the world today, all in, we consume about 620 exajoules of energy. That means nothing to anybody. What's an exajoule? It's a big number, okay? 620 exajoules powers 8.3 billion people to varying levels. just take it as 620 something, some unit, to lift everybody up to 50-50 would take almost three times that. Almost 1800 exajoules.

For the oil and gas people, that's about 1,800 trillion cubic feet of gas a year, equivalent. Other units of energy measurement that are used. Tripling, though. So 3x. Now, that's not scarcity. That's not saying, hey, we're running out. Everybody's got to conserve. You can only have one pair of shoes and two pair of clothing. No, no, that's saying...

We've got to find out how to make triple our energy, our primary energy in the world. Is it there? Some worry about that. Well, yes. The answer is there's a lot of energy in the world. It's in a variety of forms. But the density, here's where density comes back in. If I'm going to make another 1200 exodules or up to 1800, I've got to use the densest forms of energy.

That little uranium pellet, uranium oxides, thorium, another radioactive element. These are both fission inputs. And in the next period of time, we're not that far away from fusion working, not commercial yet, but fusion, that's hydrogen. It's a pretty common thing.

So we've gotta go, we've gotta get our heads around this idea that to literally lift the world out of poverty and all the good things that come from that, we gotta go dense, dense, dense. You're not going to be doing it with low-density forms of energy. There'll be good pieces of that portfolio, the optionality and energy. I don't mind solar and wind where it's sunny and windy.

You got a lot of sun here. Use it, you know, in places that make sense. It's a really, a very efficient use of the sun when you've got great sun. You know, you're in lower latitudes. You don't have many clouds. Winter doesn't happen much. Da-da-da-da. That's a pretty good... Use of sun and that use is called capacity factor.

So if I've got 100 units of sun and I can make it generate 30 units throughout the year, that's a 30% capacity factor. And that's pretty good for solar. Nuclear, 90% or more capacity factor. Nuclear is always on.

But there are no energy poor countries.

And a lot of other things, petrochemicals and all sorts of things that we use. fossil fuels for that most people don't know.

So let's separate again our thought of electricity and molecules. That's just the simplest form we can do, electricity, molecules. Electricity is used for quite a few things and more things now. We need it. Electrons are very useful things and electric motors are actually very efficient machines. More efficient than a combustion engine, the motor. The battery isn't.

The battery is less dense than dung on a per unit weight basis. A battery is a lot less dense than dung. Yes, on a weight basis. That's why it takes a thousand pounds of battery to drive a car. A Tesla S is a thousand pound battery pack, 7,000 batteries the size of your cell phone and that under the whole floor bed. It just, it has physics limits, okay.

So as we, but let's do electrons and molecules. We need molecules for a lot of useful things and burning them arguably is maybe not the best use if we had perfect other options for them now. I can electrify some things, vehicles, small cars, bigger cars. I can do hybrids for bigger buses. But because there's so much weight in that battery, when I fly here on an airplane...

The whole airplane would be a battery. Right, right, right. To get me to go.

Yeah, it's kind of cool. It's an electric plane, but it's doing nothing else. Right, right, right. And so go up that density curve again. I'm putting jet fuel, diesel, in those wings. Really dense energy. And that allows me to haul weight in humans and luggage and freight and other things. So you have to think about the end uses of energy.

It's not crazy to burn molecules when they're the only thing that will do that job. The rockets that Elon Musk launches and takes to space aren't flying on batteries. Those are on LNG, and they're actually on natural gas, but hydrogen too. So molecules have a great use for some things. natural gas and oil, electrons have a great use for other things.

We should try to get to the point where we're using the right form of energy to do the right job. Nuclear makes electricity.

And heat. You make a lot of heat with nuclear.

My nephew was the third in command, or my cousin, third in command of a nuclear attack sub. I've been on it. It's an incredible little... I didn't get to see it, but the core is not very big.

And you're putting... quite a bit of oomph to drive that patented propeller.

I can't remember, 50s and 60s, somewhere in there, and also aircraft carriers.

Yeah, they're... When I was young, I was trained to be terrified of nuclear war. It was a Cold War. I mean, in kindergarten, I got under my desk in drills and hid, preparing for a nuclear attack, Jordan. Because I knew the desk would protect me from a nuclear- Yes, of course, of course. Yeah, I was safe under the little desk. So my generation grew up, your generation are scared of that.

Oh, definitely. And there's still some reverberation in fear. Fear is extremely powerful. You know this better than I do as a psychologist. It's a powerful motivator. And it inhibits logical thinking sometimes. I mean, the beginning of wisdom is do away with fear, okay? But that's the fear we were trained with. Young people today haven't had that fear of nuclear baked into them.

They've had climate baked into them.

They're terrified of that. And they literally are gutturally terrified of that. They are emotionally, psychologically depressed. don't want to have kids, get married, suicidal.

In a productive world. Right. If you aren't allowed to be productive, you don't have the energy to be productive. It depends on where you are on that productivity scale. But, you know, Maslow outlined it pretty elegantly, I think, when he looked at the hierarchy from self-actualization kind of on down through love. But those bottom two tiers, safety, security, these things are made.

I know those are addressed by energy and wealth. the fundamental physio things that we need, physical things we need, and safety and security, those bottom two tiers in that pyramid, energy and wealth. That lifts people up. So that's what we're talking about here with 7 billion people, is the fundamental things that make everybody safer, more secure, and productive.

Food in your stomach, some clothes on your back, a shelter. some climate control, perhaps if you're living in a hot place or a cold place, et cetera, clean water to drink. These are healthcare, education. These are fundamental things.

Big time, big time. That is literally what drives a lot of those things. So you get to 7 billion people, that's a lot of energy. And you asked the question, do we have it? Are we running out? We would run out if we were using hay and wood and cutting biomass and dung. There's not enough of that to do. 8.3 billion people and growing.

We can talk about population because it's fascinating demographics, but there's not enough of that. Coal, there's quite a bit of coal still left in the world. Hundreds a year supply in the US. Asia has a lot of coal, blah, blah. Other impacts of coal from burning it.

It's solvable. The thing that you have to do, though, you want to say, what's my energy returned on my energy invested? That's a metric, EROI, it's called. And so how much energy does it take throughout the whole energy system to get useful energy out? With coal... You're mining it, moving it on trains, barges, trucks, you burn it.

And if you're gonna get out the SOX and the NOX and the particulates and the mercury and the CO2, each one of those things is a bolt-on system that runs on more energy. So you're lowering your EROI the more you clean up that coal. And it's still useful. It still has a decent return even after all that, but it's expensive because every one of those things isn't just energy, it's money.

So now I've taken coal from affordable and reliable to kind of expensive, more expensive and reliable. China doesn't do all those things. Sometimes their scrubbers are on, sometimes they're off. Depends on what their economy is needing and the cost of electricity. We don't do that here. You turn off those here in regulated societies, you get massive fines or go to prison as you should.

So that's the nice part about density again, oil a little bit less of those scrubbers, natural gas, you don't need any of that. You don't need CO2 if you wanna remove it, but there's a little bit of particulate in natural gas, not much, not much mercury, a little sulfur. Sometimes there's sulfur gases scrubbed out, but a lot less work needs to be done to make natural gas clean.

And we clean it up in our, and we cook with it in our homes. You know, it's not, I don't worry about that. There's some studies that say you should, I'm not. So that's the beauty of energy density.

Depends on what you have to worry about.

Looking pretty good.

Looking pretty good if you're cooking with wood. LPG is saving so many lives in this world, replacing wood and charcoal and huts and homes. And I'm not talking a few lives. There are 3 billion people and 2.8 billion people in the world today that cook indoors with solid biomass. And 3 million of them die every year still, Jordan. 3 million people from breathing indoor smoke, particulates.

The major pollution problem. That's it. In cities outdoor, this is just indoor. There's another two, at least that many outdoors breathing indoor particulate pollution, real pollution. So you replace that with an LPG tank, liquid propane, you save lives, instantly save lives, or an induction cooktop, something that doesn't have that happening.

It's an incredible life-saving technology, if you will. So on the abundance thing, back to that, here we are, there's a lot of natural gas in the world, okay, a lot.

If you want to clean up the atmosphere emissions, as well as the land, the air and the water, you have to accelerate economic development.

Correct.

No, we're not out of energy options, we're out of ideas sometimes.

So in 08, Mr. Obama brought me up to ask me to be Assistant Secretary of Energy under Stephen Chu. 08, first term, first month Obama, and I visited and we talked and they were looking at me doing fossil energy, coal, oil, gas, strategic petroleum reserve and other things.

And I spoke with the secretary and this was right as that fracking revolution, evolution really, because I know that it's kind of an evolution of technologies, came together. The Barnett shale really kicked it off in 2001 and two with George Mitchell. But by 08... We saw the Barnett, the Fayetteville had gotten started, the Haynesville was coming, the Marcellus is just getting started.

These are big shale gas basins in the country. And you mean big. Big. They're huge. They're big. Right. And oil followed, more technology. Natural gas is a little molecule. I think you'll be interested in this. Why do you have to frack? Why do you have to crack rock? Okay, and here's why.

And when you're cracking rock, what you're doing is putting water, which is not very compressible, under a lot of pressure, and then putting it into the ground under pressure and releasing that pressure. And that pressure release cracks rock down there a couple, five, six, 10,000 feet. Cracks the rock, makes these little teeny cracks. Why?

Well, because the holes where the natural gas is, are, the molecules are, are about, they're so small, they're in the nanometer scale. I could fit about a hundred of those little holes across the width of one human hair.

Yeah, there are a hundred of those little teeny pools across one human hair. And so the molecules, it's not easy to get them out of there. Now, so you gotta crack that rock. You're creating, you got little teeny rooms and you're creating little pathways, doorways and hallways for them to flow toward a lower pressure area.

And that wellbore, when it comes down and goes down and cracks rock, and then you open it up, you've created a low pressure pipe and everything wants to go towards low pressure, like humans. Hey, less pressure, give me less pressure, I'm good. I don't like the high pressure. In they go, and they start to flow up. So that's why fracking, hydraulic fracturing, came about.

It had been happening again for five decades.

Cracking vertical. And then the horizontal wells, they came together. So that changed things here. Our natural gas production in 2007-8 from shale, that's the name of these rocks, was about 4% of our natural gas came from shale in 08. Today, 70%. Wow.

And oil was essentially nothing from shale, and now it's 63% of our oil comes from shale.

Less than two decades. And the oil molecule, it's a big, complicated, remember, complex carbon-hydrogen change. You can't get it out of those little holes very easy. Technology continued to evolve to allow the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, and West Texas Permian Basin to produce oil. This is revolutionary. Now look, so that's supply. Won't last forever, but this is important.

We've been producing those now for 20 years, some of those basins, and 10 years. The total amount of oil and gas in those basins is called the resource.

It's pretty accurate. My organization did those studies for 20 years, and others have too. But we did that resource estimates of all the big shale basins at UT Austin, Bureau of Economic Geology. You can estimate what's in place. The reserve, and this is where language gets kind of funny, is what you can produce with today's technology at today's price. Price changes, reserves change.

You know, I can produce more at a higher price. The price goes down. So the reserves change. And then you got your production. Of all those tanks, those resources, we've only produced about 5%. in those 20 years. There's 95% still down there. It's hard to get out.

I do, I do, yeah. Yeah, so all those basins added up in the US is about 500 billion barrels equivalent. That's a lot, big numbers. The oil sands in Alberta, I don't know those numbers precisely, but they're big numbers, too. They're in that range, but very hard to get out.

Completely different technology. Our first film, Switch.

And if you're allowed, and the environmental regulations allow it. Right. Because the cool part about, we featured those in our first film, the stuff at the surface that they're mining... And for your viewer, I mean, these are conventional oil reservoir that's been impacted by surface waters and the oil, all the light stuff came off. So it's really heavy kind of tar-like oil.

So for your listeners, that's what we're talking about here. So you got to move tar out of rock. Not easy. You can mine it at the surface. That's pretty environmentally destructive, but that's 20%. 80% is below the surface. And what they do is they drill wells down in and they inject steam at high pressures because when you put heat on tar, it becomes a liquid and kind of a sludge.

And then they flow this sludge in and they add more natural gas and other things and they make it into an oil again and move it away. So they're literally taking... tar or heavy oil sands away that way. Huge resource.

No, it's not. And here's the biggest, here's kind of the mic drop on it all. Okay. The U.S. and Canada and Argentina are really the only ones producing oil and gas from shale today. We're not the only ones that have it.

But the big ones, because these are the source rocks, it's the kitchen. This is where the oil was made millions of years ago. and then leaked off into these conventional reservoirs with time, heat and pressure and time, up comes the oil. Those are the source rocks, that's what they're called. Mer de huile in French, you know, the mother of oil, sits down there.

Where you find these conventional oil and gas fields, like we have in the Middle East and Russia and South America, et cetera, there are mature source rocks leaking oil and gas. Some of the most mature and biggest source rocks in the world are in, you guessed it, the Middle East and Russia. They've been quietly testing them, quietly seeing, hey, let's learn that technology. How do we get ready?

Because it's more expensive.

And they still have these conventional reservoirs, a lot of oil and gas in the Middle East, a lot of gas in Russia, some oil, big basins.

Yes.

Well, here we've literally created a production curve that is higher than it was in the 70s. King Hubbard, a famous guy that worked with my dad, Shell, predicted peak oil in the US in 73. And he was right until we turned it around with Shell. And now we're producing more oil than we ever have. So it will be more than they've produced so far in each of those regions, at least.

They're quietly testing them. Why? And guess who was against fracking? If you chase the money back in the early 2000s, the anti-fracking movement, you chase it to Russia and the Middle East, and it's not even that hard to track it.

I wrote a piece about that. I mean, like, oh, no, the U.S. is coming back. All of a sudden, OPEC doesn't control. It was a wild time.

Yeah, and it lights on fire and da-da-da-da-da-da-da. Documentary films.

Yes. So, well, and you've got to do fracking, right? Let me defend that. You know, you can't go out there like the wild west. Fracking is a major industrial operation. It is. You're lining up big trucks around a hole, putting a bunch of water under pressure. You're producing oil and gas. You've got to do it right.

And it's regulated. Occasionally there's a bad actor. So what I'm saying here, remember we have 95% still left in the US, very hard to get a lot of it out technologically, but we'll get more. Middle East and Russia haven't even started to release that because the oil they sell to the world's markets today is cheaper. So the arbitrage is better.

It depends on the fields, and I've been there many times. It depends on the fields. But yeah, it's an incredible... There's lots of stories we won't go into, but they're just beautiful reservoirs. Now, some of them are getting kind of old. And the oil doesn't last forever. Remember that leaked off, but they still have their source rocks.

So I don't want to give people the impression that oil and natural gas are forever. They're not. They're naturally formed. They're not replaceable in human time scales because it took millions of years to cook those plants. But there's a lot of resource still left.

Not done.

They're not taken dry. We leave a bunch of oil and gas behind in shale and in conventional reservoirs. Think of your driveway, your cement driveway, when you spill a little oil on there. Can you get it out? It's stuck in that limestone. That's just limestone. Cement is limestone. It's stuck forever. It sticks to the rock. And that's what secondary and tertiary recovery processes do.

They put in carbon dioxide, ironically, CO2 floods. And you can, it changes the way the oil and the rock interact. It's called wettability and releases more oil. So there's these enhanced, but you're putting something kind of, it costs money, just like the bolted on coal. It's expensive. So I'm putting money in the ground to get more oil out.

I can always get more oil out, but I don't always get more money out. So the things you put in have to be cheaper than the value of the oil that you produce.

We don't run out of commodities. Why? something better comes along. You described it. The supply demand economics kick in and we say, well, holy crap. We'll switch. Let's invent something better. And there we go.

Incredibly complicated. And you see the technological uses of these things with energy always changing. I was riding over here today and there's this autonomous car just driving along with us, you know, and so... you don't run out of oil, it becomes too expensive. And back to what we talked about earlier, we start using it for those things that only it can uniquely do. Yeah, right.

Instead of transportation and burning it, Well, maybe we use hybrids or maybe we use fuel cells, hydrogen. There's a lot of hydrogen in the world. You gotta make it, you gotta split the water.

You take nuclear, you can split the water molecule, hydrolysis essentially, you can split the methane molecule easier, energetically cheaper, and that's called steam reforming. So I'd make hydrogen and I can put it in a fuel cell and drive my cars. So this will, it's economics. Which one's more affordable today? There's optionality out there in the future. We're not gonna run out of oil.

And I haven't even talked about one important source of, two important source of natural gas. One is called hydrates. I don't know if you've heard of natural gas.

Oceanic and permafrost. You're freezing, they're called clathrates, you're freezing gas molecules. And you're not freezing molecules, you're locking them up in ice. In the deep ocean floor, because it's cold and pressure and dark, and in the permafrost, there's a plethora of methane locked up in ice. They're called hydrates. I don't know if you've heard of them.

In the ocean and up in the permafrost.

It's the ice, yeah, that's a decent analogy. It's the ice equivalent of shale rock. You've locked this methane in. How much of that is there? It's bigger than anything we've talked about.

They're expensive. Right. So I don't want your listener to say, oh, well, why don't we go do that?

It doesn't matter if you get rich enough. If you get rich enough and with technology, the cost comes down. And so when you need that thing, there it is.

And then there's this crazy thing. And I, myself... I like to say when I'm completely thought something that was completely wrong, which is often, there was a guy named Thomas Golem and he talked about abiogenic gas, abiotic gas, not from organics.

Russian guy.

So a really smart guy that I respect tremendously. I was with him in D.C. earlier this week named Jesse Ausubel. He's done so many cool things. Really smart thinker. Jesse Ausubel.

He'd be a good guest. He'd be a great guest. Okay. And he could talk about, he started many things, but one of those was this thing called the Deep Carbon Observatory. And he got for a decade a bunch of smart people together to look at whether there's natural gas, carbon, deep in the earth that couldn't have come from organics. And they concluded, yes, there it is.

And there's a lot of work to be done, but there's natural gas in the world still from other terrestrial things that you can make CH4. It doesn't have to be organics in that sense. Carbon is a pretty common element and so is hydrogen. So that work show, we got a lot of thinking to do and that's here on earth. And I might sound a little sanguine about oil and gas.

It's there at the right price for the right needs for molecules and then nuclear for electricity.

So we come back to the original piece here.

There's a great experiment going on right now as we've put more intermittent energy, led by solar and wind, onto grids. How much can you push that? When that sun or wind go away, something has to be there immediately to back that up. to make it continue to work. And it's brutal managing a grid that has things coming and going.

We should.

Okay, so... Yeah, so that's this thought that... and I've been in 60 countries in the world, I've been lucky into them, the worst environments in the world, the physical environment, where the worst soil, the worst water, polluted water, local air is where it's poor.

We're not out of energy options, we're out of ideas.

Correct. Right. So your local resources can have limits, right? And gathering of wood, for example, deforestation can have limits. In Nepal now, we take in our second film, Switch On, they've had to restrict gathering of wood. But a lot of people can only cook with biomass. And this is where LPG is so critical to them and induction cooktops because the forests are literally being destroyed.

Right. Well, it's good to be here with you. And that's a tough situation and tragic. It's dangerous for human lives when you have major blackouts like that. So I always go back to some of the underlying principles of all these things, Jordan. And I am not against any form of energy. In fact, I've put solar in an indigenous village in Colombia, our Waco people. Oh, that's all they had.

harvested right and and uncontrollably so so another thing they grow but natural gas is an excellent substitute for deforestation oh completely right right saves the forest so so okay and oil oil saved the whales we used to use whale oil to light our homes and for other uses and then along comes this natural thing and it really it was kerosene that came out of oil for initially and we put that in lanterns and boy it burned and it didn't wasn't explosive like refined

Gasolines are another thing. So there's this wonderful technological transition that happens with energy, energy systems, where we keep getting denser, cleaner, and ironically, more reliable, and in many ways, more affordable, especially if you adjust for the time value of money. That's why we can do so much work with it. Now, What prevents that?

You keep going back and saying, damn it, Scott, why aren't we doing this?

Right.

Marxist.

Let me support that for a second. Hold that thought for a second. The substrate switching that's going on right now with wealth... So if you look at, and there's reasons this, preface it, some of this might not be good in terms of outcome, but here's what's happening. So I'm going to describe it. Fertility rates against wealth.

If you look at that, highest fertility rates down to the lowest, wealth going this way. The wealthiest countries over here and our fertility rates are below replacement of 2.1.

The poorer you are, the higher your fertility rates are. Because you need kids for one thing to do the basic agrarian kinds of things and they die of a tooth infection or diarrhea. It's morally awful in a modern world, so-called. But it isn't fertility rates driving wealth. It's wealth pulling down the fertility rates.

And part of the reason that's happening is, you just described it, we have a brain. People are saying we choose not to have as many kids. Morally, religiously, we could talk about that and you'll be better than me, but this is just what's happening. So the fertility rates in almost every country in the world have been plummeting in the last 30 years, except Africa.

So the point you're making is that- Is population in 50 years, and here comes the last 50.

We put three and a half kilowatt array to put light bulbs in mud huts and ceiling fans in a refrigerator. They didn't have wires. They didn't have roads. They didn't have pipes. Right. First electricity. Get started with it. Scaling things is the great challenge in energy. And so when you, let's just think about the physics of these things a little bit. intermittent source of energy.

50 megawatt hours, 50,000 bucks. In 2075, most demographers agree now, given the current trends in fertility rates plummeting, population in this world will peak. And it won't plateau, Jordan. It plummets. It plummets.

We're going to be going, whoa, this has got to... 2075, my kids will still be alive. And so why am I not concerned about resources? Well, I kind of believe that's coming and there may be a human super cycle. Who knows? We may choose to have more kids and not go extinct. I think we're going to choose to have kids personally. I think so too.

50, 50, 50.

We can do that. Yeah. And this is what Toby Rice and I have started, the Energy Core, C-O-R-P-S, to try to do that very thing, is to not get mud huts and light bulbs, to literally help everybody who's doing great work in this area, lift the world into prosperity. Let's go. What's stopping that?

Right.

Yes. And who won? Inflation adjusted. Less. Right.

Early.

1.2.

India went below 2.1 last year, India. Now the population will grow there, that's math. But eventually India peaks and China said, three kids. Will financially incentivize you to have kids? And the kids are saying, no. Yeah. This is big stuff. Yeah, that's for sure. I'd love to be alive in 2075 and be able to sort of see how we start to find things. If growth isn't the measure of good, what is?

The sun sets at night and it's cloudy sometimes and sometimes it's cloudy for a long time. The Germans have a word for it, Dunkelflotte. Sometimes it hails, too. And sometimes the wind, you know, quits blowing. So... When that happens in the modern world anyway, the developed world, we like our electricity 24 seven. We want it on. And when it's not on, systems fail, big systems.

How does a generation of young people take care of us oldies for the next 50 years? Because there's more of us than them in rich societies.

Or he's having enough kids too.

But in poor societies, it's young. There's a population pyramid. It's young, poor societies, and they die. Yeah. Maybe into the 50s. And then you get into these moderate societies, wealthy. And in rich societies, the whole thing inverts. We're old. We're toppling over because of this very issue. And this is non-trivial stuff. That's really important.

Especially if you have to put a time term on it.

Working Group 1, which is kind of the technical group that looks at the models and some of the outcomes of those things. Working Group 1, Chapter 12. Then you expand all sections and go to Table 12.12 and this big thing. You showed me that. There's a table here. And I have a lot of respect for the IPCC for publishing this table.

Because... It shows with the highest degree of confidence, which is hard, statistically highest degree of confidence, what are the impacts, the extreme weather impacts that have emerged from the historical past so far? And the past being 100 years, because that's how far we can measure it, or less. Right. Of all these things... What has emerged from the past so far?

In Jordan, there's only three things. It's gotten warmer, the oceans have gotten warmer, and one other thing.

Yeah, and then they run it to 2050 and 2100, the composite models. In the worst warming scenario, RCP 8.5, The worst, no climate scientists really think that's gonna happen, but let's run the worst. What's gonna emerge? Not much more emerges.

And by 2100, so if you look at the white space in that table, and again, you bring the degree of confidence lower, stuff could start to emerge with a 50-50 or 70% or 30% confidence. But when you're up there, what's really emerged with high, high confidence There's a ton of white space in that table. It's really important to understand.

I'm not saying that... I don't think that... I think humans have helped to warm the planet some. I think CO2 and methane have done that. 280 parts per million up to 430.

And it's greener, it's food. There's pros and there's trade-offs for everything. Of course. Everything in the world has trade-offs, okay? And change has costs, right?

Any rapid transformation... Change scares people. Yeah, and it disrupts ecosystems and... But this table says to me, hey, young people especially, it's not an existential threat. Humans aren't gone in 15 years. There's some time in here to think wisely, do wisely, react wisely. And then you compound that with the population demographics.

And our energy access and lifting the world all up from poverty so they don't remain anchored down here. Seven billion people and we're over here. That doesn't end well, Jordan. No, no, that's right. That never ends well. You look at any historical country region in the world and you're growing disparity.

So there's a great experiment going on right now as we've put more intermittent energy, but it's led by solar and wind onto grids. And how much can you push that? Because what has to happen when you increase the percentage of intermittent energy on an electric grid is when the, because we consume electrons in real time, right? You generate them, you use them.

The masses rise and they say, enough. We have to do this.

And guess what? No longer ignorant. I put a 40-watt panel on a Maasai house in Kenya. And the first thing they got in this little metal shed cooking indoors, you go in there, you literally can't stand the heat and the smoke. I don't know how they do it and they die. First thing has a cell phone. Everybody in the world knows what's going on in the world now. It's no longer a secret. No secrets.

So this No secrets. This has to happen. We've got to, we've got to, for everyone, bring everybody up. Yep. Got to unleash energy. Yep. Dense energy.

All forms, I like solar and wind for certain things where it's sunny and windy. Great. Yep. They're not going to, they don't address these dams.

Nuclear energy. natural gas for molecules, cooking fuels, oil is still important for lots of uses as we've described, coal in some places to continue to lift out of poverty till they can transition away from it. Accelerate economic growth to protect the environment.

Great.

I really enjoyed it. Thank you.

When that sun or wind go away, something has to be there immediately, right then in real time to back that up, to make it continue to work. And it's brutal managing a grid that has things coming and going.

Stable inputs, 60 hertz, you know, bring it to us.

Just like, you know, you could fry a blow dryer in your home, you can fry bigger things on a grid if you get big grid fluctuations.

Right. And let's come back... because it's such a big component of my work and life's passion too. Let's come back to those who don't have much or any in transitioning. So we're kind of starting with the rich world. We're starting here with a modern world, right? The developed world. We have a grid and it's a complicated beast. Grids are not simple. They have multiple different inputs.

Transmitting across, stepping up to big voltages, transmitting across multiple different wire systems. Think of interstate freeways stepping down to state highways, stepping down to county roads, stepping down to the little driveway that goes to your house. Well, that's what your wires do. So you're having to take...

Big voltages coming out of power plants and step them down ever more to little homes and industries and businesses.

And hospitals, and guess what? AI and data centers that want 99.99% reliability.

They have to always be on.

You can't fail. Right. Essentially, you can't fail. Right, right. So you're putting all these inputs in, and the more inputs in some ways is good. Optionality in energy is good, like your stock portfolio, your real estate portfolio. I like options in energy. If you get limited to one or two, you're betting a lot on that thing. I don't buy one stock. So I don't mind a lot of inputs.

But we've got to realize that they're not all created equal. And when we talk about the intermittent forms of energy, the sun and the wind and some others... They come and go, and that's not judgment. That's just physics. That's just the reality of the way the sun and the wind work. So I got to have something there.

Dunkelflaute.

Thank you.

Yeah, you're building two systems. And they're redundant, which makes them expensive. Right, right. I mean, you think poor air traffic controllers, I flew today, have a... you know, pull out your hair job, stressful, try managing a grid. Because I've been inside them. ERCOT is the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. Texas has its own grid. It's Texas. We can secede someday from the nations.

We have our own electric grid. I've been inside ERCOT and there are a wall of panels and grid operators and all the different lines and you see arrows flowing different directions and they are literally calling on people, start up that gas plant. Shut it down. It's orchestrating it. It's incredible. Make sure the baseload nuclear is always running. You don't turn nukes on and off. They just run.

We have four nuclear reactors in Texas, two at Comanche Peak, two at South Texas Project. They always run. Coal, it likes to always be on. Yeah. Think of cooking indoors in your kitchen. Would you bring charcoal in and light it up? That takes a while to get started. And once it's going, it takes a long time.

No, you... Everybody likes it always on. Some are not fully reliable, reliant on it. But so, you know, coal isn't great for that. Nuclear and coal, they're called baseload. They satisfy the minimum demand on that grid. So that's what you want in place. You need that in place, some baseload. That's the foundation. Foundation. Yeah. And natural gas... It's like cooking.

I can turn on my gas stove, boom, it's hot.

No sulfur, no SOX, no nitrogen in NOx, no mercury, no particulates. Right, right. It has CO2 when you burn it.

Well, we won't go there. But let's, yeah, relative to coal and oil, natural gas is extremely clean. It doesn't have all the... Why? Coal is all carbon. Hydrocarbons or oil is complex carbon and hydrogen chains. Natural gas is CH4, methane, one carbon, four hydrogens. It has more energy intensity density, natural gas, than oil and coal. And that sounds weird. Gas? Per unit weight. Right.

So I take a pound of natural gas, you gotta get it really cold to make it liquid or a super critical form. A pound of natural gas has more energy in it than a pound of oil.

Sure, and we'll come back to the grid. And also I want to say with the grid, the electricity, most people don't think about this, including our leaders. Electricity is only about 25 to 30% of our total energy consumption. 65 to 70% is something else. Okay, and that's all the fuels we use, the molecules, to do transportation and commercial and residential and industrial uses of various kinds.

Travel's a big piece of it. Residential, commercial, and industrial heating and cooling, basically, to keep buildings cool or warm. And then we use molecules for a lot of other things. We make fertilizers.

At least now, and growing. Ammonia comes from methane. Yeah. And plastics. We use natural gas for plastics. All the things we do in the world that have physical constructs around them are molecules. So we're not going to electrify everything. That's a silly notion. Right, right. It's a soundbite, but it's a silly notion.