Scott Wyatt
π€ SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
That doesn't occur all the time, fortunately, but can occur from time to time.
And it's a question for government about what is the right level above the normal commercial needs of the country that the country needs to hold in order to weather these sorts of events more successfully than we might feel we've weathered at the moment.
They're expensive, Alan.
Look, we're a long way from the markets, and they take a long time to build.
The modern refineries are big investments.
They can take five to ten years to build, and then they have to deliver a return to whoever invests in them.
So the challenge at the moment and the challenge right around the world is if you're facing into a future that's 10, 20 years out, and obviously...
in the midst of an energy transition with renewables and playing an increasingly important role, is the case there to build a new refinery with that longer term outlook, just from a pure economic sense.
And that's why you're not seeing the level of new refineries being built around the world at the moment, because everyone knows in 10, 20 years time, the demand for
hydrocarbons is going to reduce.
So from a pure commercial point of view, Alan, you probably wouldn't build one, but obviously we're dealing with different sets of issues at the moment.
I think hydrocarbons will have a much longer role to play in some of these hard-to-abate sectors.
So aviation, mining, road transport, they're all heavy users of diesel and jet fuel.
And yes, there are renewable fuel options to play a role, but they're
they will take a lot longer to commercialise in the quantities that we need to continue to enjoy the economic lifestyle that we have and the ability to continue to fly around the world.
So I think, you know, those hard to evade sectors will take some time.
Obviously, road transport or particularly light vehicles clearly will progress more quickly.
And EVs are here and they are a very effective way of moving to renewables and reducing the, you know,
the dependency we have on hydrocarbons for that mode of transport.
And you can see that with petrol demand in Australia.