Scott
đ€ SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And when I look at the uncertainty index, which has hit a new high since like the 80s, and consumer confidence, which has hit a new low since COVID, what it largely portends is that we're going to see a decline in GDP in the next quarter. I believe you're going to see a dramatic decrease in inventory in stores. If you just look at Diese unglaublichen Heatmaps von SchiffslÀnen.
And when I look at the uncertainty index, which has hit a new high since like the 80s, and consumer confidence, which has hit a new low since COVID, what it largely portends is that we're going to see a decline in GDP in the next quarter. I believe you're going to see a dramatic decrease in inventory in stores. If you just look at Diese unglaublichen Heatmaps von SchiffslÀnen.
And when I look at the uncertainty index, which has hit a new high since like the 80s, and consumer confidence, which has hit a new low since COVID, what it largely portends is that we're going to see a decline in GDP in the next quarter. I believe you're going to see a dramatic decrease in inventory in stores. If you just look at Diese unglaublichen Heatmaps von SchiffslÀnen.
Es gibt all diese Schiffe im Hongkonger Hafen, die nur warten, bis sie verpackt sind und nicht verpackt sind. Und dann der Port Los Angeles, der, glaube ich, der gröĂte Port in der westlichen HemisphĂ€re ist. Es wird sehr wenig Offloading vorgenommen. So at some point, and I don't know if the lag is two weeks or two months, you're just going to see an absence of inventory in stores.
Es gibt all diese Schiffe im Hongkonger Hafen, die nur warten, bis sie verpackt sind und nicht verpackt sind. Und dann der Port Los Angeles, der, glaube ich, der gröĂte Port in der westlichen HemisphĂ€re ist. Es wird sehr wenig Offloading vorgenommen. So at some point, and I don't know if the lag is two weeks or two months, you're just going to see an absence of inventory in stores.
Es gibt all diese Schiffe im Hongkonger Hafen, die nur warten, bis sie verpackt sind und nicht verpackt sind. Und dann der Port Los Angeles, der, glaube ich, der gröĂte Port in der westlichen HemisphĂ€re ist. Es wird sehr wenig Offloading vorgenommen. So at some point, and I don't know if the lag is two weeks or two months, you're just going to see an absence of inventory in stores.
And consumers have gotten to the point where if they can't get what they want, they're so used to such a robust supply chain, they're going to think, A, if they're not feeling good about the consumer economy, they don't want to as aggressively buy that new home gym or whatever, and B... If the products they want are available, they use that as an excuse just not to buy.
And consumers have gotten to the point where if they can't get what they want, they're so used to such a robust supply chain, they're going to think, A, if they're not feeling good about the consumer economy, they don't want to as aggressively buy that new home gym or whatever, and B... If the products they want are available, they use that as an excuse just not to buy.
And consumers have gotten to the point where if they can't get what they want, they're so used to such a robust supply chain, they're going to think, A, if they're not feeling good about the consumer economy, they don't want to as aggressively buy that new home gym or whatever, and B... If the products they want are available, they use that as an excuse just not to buy.
So I think winter is coming. And that is, I would imagine the next quarter there's going to be, you know, they'll find another reason to blame Hunter Biden or something. But this is... They get a pass on this one, right?
So I think winter is coming. And that is, I would imagine the next quarter there's going to be, you know, they'll find another reason to blame Hunter Biden or something. But this is... They get a pass on this one, right?
So I think winter is coming. And that is, I would imagine the next quarter there's going to be, you know, they'll find another reason to blame Hunter Biden or something. But this is... They get a pass on this one, right?
But the fact that there's, again, this massive surge in imports is because our economy is making asymmetric, irrational decisions based on an unpredictable administration and unpredictable economic policy.
But the fact that there's, again, this massive surge in imports is because our economy is making asymmetric, irrational decisions based on an unpredictable administration and unpredictable economic policy.
But the fact that there's, again, this massive surge in imports is because our economy is making asymmetric, irrational decisions based on an unpredictable administration and unpredictable economic policy.
They likely will be hurt more than us in the short term. But their tolerance for pain is much greater than ours. And I think over the medium and the long term, China is actually a winner because I think they're going to be more aggressive about establishing relationships with new partners that will be more apt or less reticent to engage in business with them.
They likely will be hurt more than us in the short term. But their tolerance for pain is much greater than ours. And I think over the medium and the long term, China is actually a winner because I think they're going to be more aggressive about establishing relationships with new partners that will be more apt or less reticent to engage in business with them.
They likely will be hurt more than us in the short term. But their tolerance for pain is much greater than ours. And I think over the medium and the long term, China is actually a winner because I think they're going to be more aggressive about establishing relationships with new partners that will be more apt or less reticent to engage in business with them.
And also you're already seeing that basically we're thrusting the EU into the arms of China and vice versa. Chinese e-commerce exports to the US fell by 65% last month, but exports to Europe rose by 28%. And also what we forget is that Europe is actually a bigger trading partner. So that's 28% on a bigger number.
And also you're already seeing that basically we're thrusting the EU into the arms of China and vice versa. Chinese e-commerce exports to the US fell by 65% last month, but exports to Europe rose by 28%. And also what we forget is that Europe is actually a bigger trading partner. So that's 28% on a bigger number.