Sean Carroll

Why don't we make that prediction?

Why don't we have the courage of our convictions?

Right.

It might be.

I'm thinking that in the Boltzmann case, you have a prior given by the dynamics, the Liouville measure, things like that.

But I think that that's certainly contestable, and we're probably not going to get to solve it right here.

Brilliant narrative strategy to bring us back to exactly where we started.

Let me just close with one final question.

I mean, there's a lot of next-door neighbor questions that people have been talking about that we haven't quite had a chance to discuss, but things like the doomsday argument, the simulation argument.

The simulation argument is not just, oh, maybe we're in a computer simulation, but people think it's most likely that

that we are.

There are people out there who think that.

I presume that all this talk of self-locating uncertainty and Bayesian rationality gives one a perspective on this.

Do you have a particular perspective you'd like to share?

But that's an easy question.

No, of course the AI should not trust us.

Let's think about that.

I usually like to end on optimistic notes, but we land where we land.

That's not an especially optimistic one, but you've given us an awful lot to think about.

So Adam Elga, thanks so much for being on the Mindscape podcast.