Shashank Joshi

But if the Americans cut everything and run, then we would be in a battlefield crisis probably by the end of this year, maybe early next year, where ammunition would be running dry, the Russian Air Force would be able to go over Ukraine more easily. And to answer your question directly, no, Ukraine would not be able to win. It would have to stay on the defensive.

It would be eking out its position, probably falling back. And I think it would be in a very, very difficult place at that point.

It would be eking out its position, probably falling back. And I think it would be in a very, very difficult place at that point.

It would be eking out its position, probably falling back. And I think it would be in a very, very difficult place at that point.

Well, at that stage, I suspect President Trump would have less interest in the war. He would have had to wash his hands of it at that point. But I also caution, you know, war is unpredictable. In early 2022, I was among the many people who thought that Ukraine was bound for defeat against these overwhelming odds.

Well, at that stage, I suspect President Trump would have less interest in the war. He would have had to wash his hands of it at that point. But I also caution, you know, war is unpredictable. In early 2022, I was among the many people who thought that Ukraine was bound for defeat against these overwhelming odds.

Well, at that stage, I suspect President Trump would have less interest in the war. He would have had to wash his hands of it at that point. But I also caution, you know, war is unpredictable. In early 2022, I was among the many people who thought that Ukraine was bound for defeat against these overwhelming odds.

And I completely hold my hands up and acknowledge I was wrong because wars are unpredictable. Things happen. We saw a rebellion in Moscow with one of Vladimir Putin's most important mercenaries, Evgeny Progozhin, rising up and marching on the Capitol. So who knows what happens in a year? The Russian economy could blow up. We could see other developments inside Russia.

And I completely hold my hands up and acknowledge I was wrong because wars are unpredictable. Things happen. We saw a rebellion in Moscow with one of Vladimir Putin's most important mercenaries, Evgeny Progozhin, rising up and marching on the Capitol. So who knows what happens in a year? The Russian economy could blow up. We could see other developments inside Russia.

And I completely hold my hands up and acknowledge I was wrong because wars are unpredictable. Things happen. We saw a rebellion in Moscow with one of Vladimir Putin's most important mercenaries, Evgeny Progozhin, rising up and marching on the Capitol. So who knows what happens in a year? The Russian economy could blow up. We could see other developments inside Russia.

You know, in some ways, the strategy on the Ukrainian side has been, look, keep it going, keep the Russians engaged, keep killing or wounding 1,200, 1,300 Russians a day, and something will turn up. At some point, they will just run out, they'll get exhausted. And so I'm always wary of saying... Ukraine will lose because we don't know all the other things that can happen in a conflict like this.

You know, in some ways, the strategy on the Ukrainian side has been, look, keep it going, keep the Russians engaged, keep killing or wounding 1,200, 1,300 Russians a day, and something will turn up. At some point, they will just run out, they'll get exhausted. And so I'm always wary of saying... Ukraine will lose because we don't know all the other things that can happen in a conflict like this.

You know, in some ways, the strategy on the Ukrainian side has been, look, keep it going, keep the Russians engaged, keep killing or wounding 1,200, 1,300 Russians a day, and something will turn up. At some point, they will just run out, they'll get exhausted. And so I'm always wary of saying... Ukraine will lose because we don't know all the other things that can happen in a conflict like this.

And technologies change as well. You know, the drone revolution that Ukraine is exploiting right now to inflict these massive casualty rates, those kind of drones, they did not exist as usable battlefield weapons back in February 2022.

And technologies change as well. You know, the drone revolution that Ukraine is exploiting right now to inflict these massive casualty rates, those kind of drones, they did not exist as usable battlefield weapons back in February 2022.

And technologies change as well. You know, the drone revolution that Ukraine is exploiting right now to inflict these massive casualty rates, those kind of drones, they did not exist as usable battlefield weapons back in February 2022.

I think there is, yes. I think we realize we're in a crisis here. And I know we've said that before. You may have heard that before. In Trump 1, you may have heard it before at other times. But this feels to me the most... a febrile, fluid moment in European security in my lifetime.

I think there is, yes. I think we realize we're in a crisis here. And I know we've said that before. You may have heard that before. In Trump 1, you may have heard it before at other times. But this feels to me the most... a febrile, fluid moment in European security in my lifetime.

I think there is, yes. I think we realize we're in a crisis here. And I know we've said that before. You may have heard that before. In Trump 1, you may have heard it before at other times. But this feels to me the most... a febrile, fluid moment in European security in my lifetime.

And possibly since, you know, I think certainly since the end of the Cold War, possibly the most dramatic rupture in transatlantic relations, maybe since the 1950s. And I can see people finding new ways to spend more on defense. You can have a big 150 billion euro loan facility for European defence programmes.