Menu
Sign In Search Podcasts Charts People & Topics Add Podcast API Blog Pricing

Sholto Douglas

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
1567 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

I don't want to do the math on exactly how much, like, we can ramp up TSMC's production and this kind of stuff.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

Like, what fraction of the supply chain at the moment, we need Dylan in here for this, but, like, is currently GPU.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

It's, like, relatively small.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

5% or something like this, yeah.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

Like, Apple has a huge fraction.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

Yeah, yeah.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

And, like, are the 2028 estimates including, like, that ramping up over time?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

Yeah, yeah.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

To what?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

Like, 20, 30%?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

To the extent that you don't instantly get a doubling of the world's population in 2028.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

You maybe get...

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

you know tens of millions of geniuses in a data center um but you you don't get a doubling of the world's population yeah um and so a lot depends on like exactly how smart they are exactly how efficient the models are thinking about this kind of stuff uh these uh like let's do some rough math i guess like to factor the h100 thing um you could probably run like a hundred model do like about a thousand tokens or something like that um on h100 uh so

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

If, like, we're comparing that to the number of... Should we compare that number?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

No, okay.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

1,000 tokens a second.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

Humans are what?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

How fast can a human talk?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

Did you see this paper?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? โ€” Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken

Then it's like an H100 is 100 humans a second.