Simon Belanger
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Appearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
They're issuing equity.
They're taking on debt.
They're issuing preferred shares.
It's a complete reversal.
It used to be a very cash flow positive company, very shareholder friendly.
And now they're just kind of tapping the well consistently now.
And again, as I had mentioned, it used to be a software company, but it's kind of looking like a...
infrastructure utility play and i just don't think the market will pay that much for it as they would when they were a software company and the thing is like you're still paying 22x ev but like enterprise value to ebitda to effectively fund the company's just cash burn build out in hopes
that those RPOs materialize, the very long-dated RPOs.
For this, if somebody were to say, would I buy this one, I would not touch this company.
There's just way too much risk here for me.
The RPOs look flashy on the surface, but that's where the key difference is with something like Alphabet, who I believe has like 50-some percent of their backlog to be realized over the next couple of years, whereas Oracle...
is like, well, 10% over the next 12 months.
And you could probably say 20, maybe 20, 25, 30% over the next two years.
A lot of that is way out in the future.
Yeah, this is a company in 2021.
Yeah, like again, this is a situation where it all depends on the risk you want to take.
Because if it does realize all those RPOs, there's a lot of potential here after they build out that infrastructure.
But with them being as long dated as they are, there's a lot of risk that it doesn't materialize.
And I guess the other thing you say about all the equity issuances, like good management teams tap the equity market when prices are high.