Simone Stolzoff

Thank you.

It's a pleasure to be here.

A little bit of both.

And so it's hard to have an objective measure of uncertainty.

There's this one academic project that has done a really good job of tracking global uncertainty over time, but it began in the 80s.

And what they found is that the five highest measurements since the study began have all occurred in the last five years.

So you think about things like COVID and the war in Iran, Ukraine, tariff policy.

But you also question how they're measuring uncertainty.

And so there's not just like one number.

One thing that they use is mentions of uncertainty in newspaper articles, for example.

But I would argue if you were, say, a handloom weaver before the Industrial Revolution or living in Florence before the bubonic plague, you might think that modern day uncertainty is sort of like small potatoes.

But the feeling of uncertainty is definitely heightened right now.

And it's something that is in the air that we breathe.

There's some really interesting research on the rise of the internet and mobile phones.

And what they found is that the rise of the internet is correlated with our increase in intolerance of uncertainty.

So basically, these phones in our pockets have given us access to more information.

They have allowed us to reach and see what's happening on the other side of the world.

But it's two things.

One is it takes all of the uncertainty in the world and brings it directly to us.

A crisis that's happening, what your kid might be doing at any given moment.