Simone Stolzoff

Shooting at the hip on social media.

I was going to say, we look at the wrong signals.

But a PhD isn't necessarily a water, airtight plan to show that someone is going to be correct about what they're saying.

The truth is that, especially with anything that is going to happen, anything that's going to happen in the future, we really don't know.

One great example is there's a lot of talk right now about AI, what AI is going to do to jobs.

And one of the smartest sort of godfathers of AI is...

said that by the end of 2025, the number of radiologists is going to fall off a cliff.

And yet, in 2025, there were more radiologists than when he made that prediction five years ago.

And so there is something to be said for wanting to know the direction of the world.

But I think, especially in these moments of transition, we have a tendency to pull to extremes.

So with AI, maybe you believe that AI is going to automate all rote work and

usher us into this age of higher level creative problem solving.

Or maybe you believe that AI is going to lead to this class warfare where the robots show up with the pink slips and it's going to lead to all of this destruction.

And the truth is, it's probably not either extreme.

It's probably going to look somewhere more in the middle.

But by attaching our identity to one of these hot takes, it allows us to feel more secure because we think, oh, I'm in the boomer camp or I'm in the doomer camp.

And it's like, OK, I've already made my bet.

What's the best way to sound credible without faking certainty?

It's to be clear about what you don't know.

There you go.