Siobhan Hughes
Appearances
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And with these narrow margins that he has, the loss of 15 Republicans always throws him into the arms of Democrats. And this is their point of maximum leverage And this may be the place where they take their stand in a way that does send the federal government into a shutdown.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
Democrats would dispute your characterization of that, Ryan. They would be furious if they thought you were saying it was Democrats because their perspective is, look, House Republicans own it. They have enough votes to steer this through the House if they want to. And if it gets broken, that's on them.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
So, what was in it is something that's just in very, very broad brushstrokes. This is not the package that Congress is going to ultimately vote on. These are the marching orders. And they tell various committees, most predominantly the Tax Writing Committee, the House Ways and Means Committee— that it can cut taxes by a certain amount, essentially.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And then it gives marching orders to other entities like the House Energy and Commerce Committee to find a certain amount of savings. And so the action is going to be in these committees where we figure out, for example, does the House Energy and Commerce Committee decide to really make big cuts to Medicaid?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And the Ways and Means Committee, how does the chairman, Jason Smith, get around these constraints on how much in taxes he's able to cut and still extend those 2017 tax cuts?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
These are worlds apart because it's starting out with this narrow package focused predominantly on border security and military spending. It's just going to put money into those areas, popular programs among Republicans, and then come back and work out the difficult details of a tax package later. And so these two are on a collision course.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
Mike Johnson's theory of the case is that if you do everything in one big, beautiful bill, everybody gets something and you smooth over these interparty tensions, get it done in one shot, and you can all move on. And the Senate Republicans' theory of the case is that
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
no, no, no, you risk getting bogged down the same way you did in 2017 when you tried unsuccessfully to repeal the Affordable Care Act. So let's come out of the gates with a win, especially now when Trump is still in his honeymoon phase.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
The theory of the case had been that House Republicans were going to land smack on their face. And at least with that vote on Tuesday, they showed they were able to start the process.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
They got it passed. It was a nail-biter. It squeaked through. If one Republican had gone a different direction, this would not have passed. But they got it done. And as Molly points out, the reason they got it done was because they brought in their heavy hitter.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
They brought in Donald Trump, who was on the phone while House members were on that floor, twisting arms and sort of saying, hey, you've just got to open this process.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
Yeah, Molly's right. I mean, sometimes in politics, you don't have to get every single thing right, but you do have to have one good insight or idea. And Mike Johnson's key insight, the key to all of this is Donald Trump has proved right.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
It is tenuous. There's no question about it. But he's pretty driven about this right now. And one thing that this vote did show is that Republicans who harbored doubts about the package, whether it's conservatives worried that really Congress is about to blow up the deficit, or moderates concerned that their Medicaid programs are about to be decimated, they swallowed those concerns and voted yes.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And in a pressure cooker environment on that floor, when you are under pressure from the leader of your party, lawmakers can cave in ways they don't necessarily think they are going to when they are hewing closely to their values.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
Well, we've seen some contentious town halls over the past week where people like Congressman McCormick down in Georgia really got an earful when he had a town hall with people horrified by what they saw Elon Musk and Doge and the Republicans doing. The response to that, and you heard Mike Johnson talk about this this week, is that they think it's really an astroturf effort.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
They don't think that the Republican grassroots are opposed to what is coming and that instead you've got Democrats riled up grabbing the microphone and that once the dust settles, things are going to be OK. But, you know, beyond that, there are some real concerns on the part of Republican voters.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
I was talking to a congressperson down in Florida who talked about how when some of her Republican officials had been meeting with the government about where they were going to get money to rebuild after hurricanes, they were told, look, we don't know if you're going to be able to get the money. Everything's kind of on pause. We're not sure we're going to deliver for you.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And once those real-world issues start to hit in a very personal way, That's what can be the game changer. And that's certainly what Democrats are banking on.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
Oh, absolutely. They've been ringing off the hooks to the point that you couldn't get through. Things almost got frozen up.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
Behind the scenes, that is a drama that's probably about to explode onto center stage because there is this deadline of March 14th.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
It's really right around the corner when you measure it in terms of legislative days and think about how long it takes to get a bill through the floor.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And you're seeing Democrats really starting to plant a flag here and say, look, if we do not include in this spending bill some type of guarantee or assurances that Elon Musk will not take a hacksaw to the programs that we have funded, as is our right— then we are going to withhold votes for these spending bills.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: A Big, Beautiful Bill
And the reason that is important is because Mike Johnson, during his entire tenure, has essentially been governing the country in a coalition with Democrats. He needs Democrats in order to pass these spending bills because he's got roughly 15 Republican lawmakers who just have never voted with him to keep the government open.
WSJ What’s News
House Republicans Face Difficult Trade-Offs to Pass Tax Bill
It stands where it has stood all year, which is very much in flux. Mike Johnson, the House speaker, eked out a win when he persuaded some holdout conservatives to drop their resistance, keep going. But the problem is that there's still very much a live conversation about the big three.
WSJ What’s News
House Republicans Face Difficult Trade-Offs to Pass Tax Bill
the clean energy, the Medicaid work requirements, and the state and local taxes, but that's far from a dispositive list. There are a lot of other little items in the mix, and we're not going to know if all of those are going to be sorted out, really, until we see that vote on the House floor.
WSJ What’s News
House Republicans Face Difficult Trade-Offs to Pass Tax Bill
So if this bill passes the House, it next heads to the Senate where Republican senators and this bill is going to have to pass with only Republican votes and a simple majority. Republican senators have made very clear they have no intention of swallowing whole what the House has produced. There are some Senate Republicans who don't like what they see coming out of the House in terms of Medicaid.
WSJ What’s News
House Republicans Face Difficult Trade-Offs to Pass Tax Bill
And then, of course, there is the usual wrangling where the senators, each of them realizing they've got a lot of leverage here, is going to try to figure out how much of their own wish list they can get incorporated into this bill.
WSJ What’s News
House Republicans Face Difficult Trade-Offs to Pass Tax Bill
Well, this is part of the fight that's going on in the House right now. You're seeing the conservatives really want to get some more spending cuts in here. But beyond that, and the Republicans are not tipping their hand here on the specifics, but generally, a lot of Republicans are looking to Trump's budget director, Russ Vogt,
WSJ What’s News
House Republicans Face Difficult Trade-Offs to Pass Tax Bill
And what he and his allies over in the Department of Government Efficiency are going to do to try to cut spending, essentially by going around Congress to do it. And there's always been some sense kind of latent underneath the surface that some of the cuts being enacted through the executive branch could potentially be enough to get the country to a better fiscal place.
WSJ What’s News
House Republicans Face Difficult Trade-Offs to Pass Tax Bill
Every time people have bet against House Speaker Mike Johnson, they have ended up losing. And a piece of that track record is he has got the very powerful hammer held by President Donald Trump, who magically, when votes come up on the floor, is able to twist enough arms that bills get through this narrow majority.
WSJ What’s News
Does Europe Have What it Would Take to Fight Russia?
Schumer's decision is a politically risky one. He is set to lose more than half of the Democratic caucus as he votes in favor of the Republican bill. to keep the government open. A shutdown, Schumer argued, would give President Trump even greater power to lay off federal workers beyond those in agencies he has already targeted.