Siobhan Hughes

To see this group of Republicans who are pretty much go-along, get-along guys, not likely to be difficult for leadership, do this, really underscores the political potency of the insurance issue.

It is absolutely extraordinary to see this group of Republicans buck their own House leadership, essentially muscle Speaker Johnson aside and say, no, no, no, you must schedule a vote on this bill.

To see this group of Republicans, who are pretty much go-along, get-along guys, not likely to be difficult for leadership, do this really underscores the political potency of the insurance issue.

These Republicans are all in very, very tough races next year.

And health care is going to be on the ballot.

Everybody remembers the 2018 elections were very much about Republican efforts to try to repeal and end the Affordable Care Act.

And so fearing a repeat of the blue wave in 2018, these Republicans are jumping out to defend their own constituents interests.

The premiums of the 24 million people who have Affordable Care Act coverage are going to spike next year.

Subsidies will revert to pre-pandemic levels and people making over 400 percent of the federal poverty line will lose subsidies entirely.

But that is not going to be the final word.

There is going to be a vote in January in the House on a three year extension of the subsidies.

And while that version is not going to make it into law, there are very intense and real conversations among both Republicans and Democrats about how to in some form extend these subsidies.

Oh, and by the way, Democrats have a hammer that they can use here.

Funding for much of the federal government expires starting on January 31st.

And so in theory, Democrats could trigger another government shutdown if they wanted to make a point about this.

So this forced maneuver could make it more likely to extend the subsidies?

Absolutely.

It's going to put enormous pressure on Republicans to do something because it puts a very fine point on the fact that their House majority is

is on the line over health care costs.

And it also reminds the Senate Republicans that they too could either lose or more likely see their majority diminished over this issue.