Stacy Rasgon
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
Yeah, to be fair, we've had a number of names over the last year or two or three move like this, but we haven't seen the whole group broadly move like this.
And I think it's a few things.
First, there's been a real appetite to play other names, I think, in the AI supply chain.
And frankly, AI is now getting so big that it's dragging everything along with it, right?
You know, it started with the GPUs and the accelerators, you know, a year or two years ago or whatever.
And then...
One at a time, different other end markets that are more peripheral to it but important for it have come into focus.
I mean, we went from the GPUs and accelerators and then we went to memory and then semi-cap and then optical and then power semiconductors and more recently CPUs.
And so one at a time, as demand has grown and grown and grown, it sucked a lot of these other things into it and driven demand.
unexpected upside.
These were not areas that investors broadly were looking at for upside from the AI trade.
So I think that's one.
Secondly, and maybe explain some of the recent rampant, to your point, I mean, I think the SOX index, which is a broad index of semiconductor stocks, is up, at least as of Friday, I'm not sure how it ends up today, but as of Friday, it was up 66% year-to-date, and it was up almost 50% since the beginning of March when earnings season kicked off.
Earnings estimates have actually exploded to the upside, and if you look at the interplay between earnings and multiples year-to-date, multiples valuations in the industry year-to-date are actually down slightly.
All of the growth in the stocks has been explainable via growth in earnings estimates.
We've actually had just a huge cycle of positive revisions in earnings.
across the board, probably most pronounced in memory.
But we've seen earnings go up like pretty much across the board.
And I think finally there's been a real scramble
Because not all investors maybe have been involved.