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Stacy Rasgon

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
105 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

Yeah, to be fair, we've had a number of names over the last year or two or three move like this, but we haven't seen the whole group broadly move like this.

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

And I think it's a few things.

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

First, there's been a real appetite to play other names, I think, in the AI supply chain.

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

And frankly, AI is now getting so big that it's dragging everything along with it, right?

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

You know, it started with the GPUs and the accelerators, you know, a year or two years ago or whatever.

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

And then...

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

One at a time, different other end markets that are more peripheral to it but important for it have come into focus.

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

I mean, we went from the GPUs and accelerators and then we went to memory and then semi-cap and then optical and then power semiconductors and more recently CPUs.

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

And so one at a time, as demand has grown and grown and grown, it sucked a lot of these other things into it and driven demand.

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

unexpected upside.

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

These were not areas that investors broadly were looking at for upside from the AI trade.

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

So I think that's one.

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

Secondly, and maybe explain some of the recent rampant, to your point, I mean, I think the SOX index, which is a broad index of semiconductor stocks, is up, at least as of Friday, I'm not sure how it ends up today, but as of Friday, it was up 66% year-to-date, and it was up almost 50% since the beginning of March when earnings season kicked off.

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

Earnings estimates have actually exploded to the upside, and if you look at the interplay between earnings and multiples year-to-date, multiples valuations in the industry year-to-date are actually down slightly.

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

All of the growth in the stocks has been explainable via growth in earnings estimates.

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

We've actually had just a huge cycle of positive revisions in earnings.

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

across the board, probably most pronounced in memory.

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

But we've seen earnings go up like pretty much across the board.

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

And I think finally there's been a real scramble

Prof G Markets
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem

Because not all investors maybe have been involved.

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