Stefan Vogel

With a war here in the Strait of Hormuz, the question really is

who can offset the shortfall of supply that comes from that region.

And that is very difficult because it is very big numbers.

Nobody knows when the Strait of Hormuz will really be open.

By as long as it closed, how long does it take for others to step up and supply more?

So with that, Australia is doing one thing right now fairly well.

We're trying to get imported goods that we really need from the world market.

But the longer that conflict drags on, the higher the costs will probably be and the more painful it will get for the whole supply chain, including also the consumer inflation.

Yeah, so right now the farmers basically face the higher cost immediately.

So on the first day of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, fertilizer prices went up, diesel prices went up, so that this cost shock comes very quickly on the farm.

The transport sector, it's the same thing.

Diesel prices went up.

Like all of us go to the gas station and see the high tickets, the transport sector faces the same thing.

So the costs are immediately pushed up on us.

However, the capability of moving those costs further down the chain up until at the end of the day, the consumer is something that sometimes isn't 100%.

And second of all, it takes a little bit of time.

So with that, I think we will see the second half of the year food prices rising.

It might actually be that Christmas is the time when food gets more expensive or is more expensive, even if the Strait of Hormuz opens tomorrow.

We're expecting that the flow of goods from that region will take time.

Because right now the import companies are buying for a very high price.