Stephanie Findley

I was talking with Clearview Energy's Kevin Book, who was emphasizing exactly as you're saying, it's now going to get really interesting.

There was a whole bunch of oil and gas inventory out on the water when the conflict broke out.

We saw countries, including the U.S., release strategic reserves.

Both of those acted as a kind of cushion for this supply shock.

But soon those are going to run out, which means the pockets of shortages, which we're seeing now, may become more severe, or we start to see people using less oil, bringing down demand.

On the ConocoPhillips earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Andy O'Brien said the company had actually downgraded global oil demand to be flat this year as a result of the conflict, and also warned import-dependent countries will potentially start to face critical shortages as we head into the summer.

So again, coming back to the point, I think a rise in shale production would help, but it can in no way compensate for the severe amount of barrels which are offline now because of the war.