Stephen Bush

And they will, of course, hold on to Kensington, which has a very cosmopolitan European and also various British ethnic minorities there.

Now,

The thing is, is there are very few seats in the United Kingdom which are both high affluence, high ethnic diversity, and the Liberal Democrats are not a factor in, right?

So essentially, the conservative line on this is, hey, look, guys, if you look at the most eccentric seats in British politics...

We're on our way.

But if you look at the traditional backbone of the Conservative Party, they're in real, real trouble.

Yeah, no, I mean, it's not.

I mean, so obviously the important caveat is in Wales, Plaid Cymru are running on a platform of more powers for the parliament.

To be honest, the other parties have talked more about the constitution than they have because in lots of the polls, Plaid Cymru are more popular than the idea of Welsh independence.

And it's very hard to say because the other parties, other than Reform and Plaid Cymru, are so close together under their new electoral system.

You could have a situation where

The only viable alternative is some kind of Plaid Cymru-Labour coalition arrangement similar to the One Wales deal from 2007 to 2011, but with the parties reversed.

You could end up in a situation where the Labour Party vanishes from the Senate because of how the new system was.

Similarly, you have a situation where the Conservatives vanish from the Senate, and all of that will change the mood music quite significantly.

But yeah, I mean, I think the big defeat for unionism in these elections are...

The SNP have been in power for 19 years.

Their policy record is not much to write over.

They've been mired in scandal.

They changed leaders three times, just as the Conservatives did in the last Parliament.

And unlike the Conservatives who were sharply repudiated, they will almost certainly be re-elected for another term.