Stephen Fowler

Republicans have had a huge advantage because of gerrymandering over the years where a lot of the districts in the country lean a little bit more toward the right.

But that gap has actually been closing in recent years.

So that gap is not quite as big, but we have fewer and fewer competitive districts.

So the universe of competitive seats is smaller than it ever has been.

But long story short, things are starting to tip in Democrats direction because midterm elections are usually a referendum on the president.

Trump has had a really bad month.

He's been under.

40% for his job approval rating in our NPR PBS News Marist poll since November.

Affordability still a big issue in the country.

People feeling like Trump is not focused on that as much as he should be.

That has a tendency to depress the base.

So you don't get as many people to turn out to vote.

And Republicans have had issues turning out conservatives when Trump's not on the ballot.

And independents are lining up with Democrats on almost every issue in very strong ways.

So that makes it really hard when in those swing districts,

Independence are so important.

And they're, you know, Trump is really proving toxic to independence.

Although I'd say running for governor is often a better leaping off point to run for president than being a senator.

The old joke in Washington is that senators wake up in the morning and look at themselves and see a potential president, but they have far less success often running.

than governors do given that executive experience.