Stephen Koukoulas

In terms of the negative gearing rules and capital gains tax rules, the effect will be later rather than sooner.

It takes a little while.

The fact that they're not starting until 2027 to take their full effect means that by definition they're not going to have a big impact.

But I'm wondering if in five and 10 and 15 years' time the effect will come through.

Yeah, they seem right and they're consistent with a lot of other research on the topic.

The housing advocate, Peter Tulip, has been very vocal on some of those effects of the tax changes.

They're not the biggest issue impacting on house prices and unapportability right now.

they do help.

And when you're talking, even a couple of percent is $20,000 on a million dollars.

So you're actually having an effect over and above what's happening to the housing market.

And in concert with some of the other reductions in compliance costs for builders, dare I say, red tape costs, and that's going to be good in terms of adding to new supply.

So the housing...

problem was caused by many issues and it'll be fixed by the unwinding of many of the issues.

So what seems to be a small impact from negative gearing changes, capital gains tax changes, productivity changes, the changes in zoning laws that Claire O'Neill's been trying to implement with the state and local government sector, none of them by themselves will fix the problem.

But when they're all working...

you actually get a little bit of a compounding effect that, well, yeah, it'll still take a few years to have its full effect, but it will have an effect and add to supply and add to affordability.

I think it's fairly clear that the combination is quite powerful.

Well, the issue that is still there, if you want to buy a dwelling, a residential property for investment purposes, you can, just that you're not getting other taxpayers to subsidise your costs.

And that's the element of fairness or unfairness that was in the existing system.

Now, it's going to, again, it's one of those ones where part of the problem, in addition to affordability, is that it costs the budget a lot of money.