Stephen Koukoulas
speaker
2,355 appearances
24 recordings
2 series
first heard Apr 2026
last heard 6d ago
Stephen Koukoulas’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 24 in all, peaking in May 2026 with 6.
Appearances
Then I think that the uh November statement on monetary policy will have to revise those labor market numbers and with that revise the risks that inflation is too high for too long because a weak labor market is very powerful in pushing
It should be trending lower, correct?
Because we've got a very high number from July last year.
Dropping out of the year on year run rate.
So the current market uh thought process is that we get a a a monthly increase in the CPI of around about 0.5%.
Some of the petrol prices were increasing.
And there's a couple of other items that in the month of July, first of July, the beginning of the financial year, a lot of companies just sort of tweak their prices up a little bit in normal sort of circumstances.
So we're probably going to see a point five.
But because of that run rate on the annual figure, it should step down to about 3.5%, maybe 3.4%, just on the back of that run rate slowing.
So inflation still above target, but there'll be a hint of encouragement that perhaps it's stepping back towards the target.
Well, on the on the quarterly numbers, we tend to be pretty close.
On the monthly numbers, there can always be that that shock that we forecasters might miss.
It might be something that has a sort of a reasonably moderate weighting, so therefore it has a significant impact on the monthly CPI.
It could be the price of some food and groceries, for example, that we don't quite capture, or some insurance costs that we don't quite.
Capture fully in what we're trying to anticipate.
So, yes, there's a genuine risk of a surprise, which direction, who knows at this stage, because the quarterly CPI that you referred to a minute ago, that actually surprised on the downside by a tenth of a percent, which was welcome news.
So we'll be watching for surprises.
We'd it'd be lovely to see another slight downward uh surprise of 3.3%.
would be much better than a three point five percent uh because that would confirm that though m the momentum on inflation and inflation doesn't go from three and a half to two and a half percent in a n in a month.
But if we're moving towards the low threes, I think we can be a little more confident that the inflation momentum anyway is towards the target.
Showing 441–460 of 2,355 · page 23 of 118
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