Stephen Koukoulas

Things like meat prices, beef and lamb, as the farmers are restocking their herds, they're not slaughtering their beasts.

So the price of beef is going up and that's clearly nothing to do with the war in the

There were inflation pressures before.

They're still simmering there.

And we've just had the extra whammy, if you like, of the oil shock coming through.

I'm an interest rate dove, but I would hike.

I think we've come to the point where we need a bit of tough love now.

And while there's a case, there's a very good case to sit tight.

And as we saw last meeting, there were five voters on the board in favour of the hike, four for no change.

We're probably going to get the same sort of split decision occurring because, as I was saying, sensible people can disagree on what we need to do.

On inflation, hike 100%.

It's a given.

The dovish people might say, well, hang on.

We've got consumer sentiment that's gone through the floor.

We've got business optimism weakening dramatically.

The whole economy is pretty subdued.

And the other thing that comes out tomorrow afternoon is a statement on monetary policy with the revised forecasts.

And I dare say, and rightly so, there'll be more caveats on those forecasts than anything else, because when the war ends, when the oil price goes, it's a huge unknown when it comes to the outlook for the economy.

But I think you're quite right.

We are getting very close to the end of the rate hiking cycle.