Stephen Miran

Well, look, we've already had some whiplash this morning.

And I think that underlines that we shouldn't be making policy based on short-term headlines, right?

We should wait for all the information to come in before really changing our outlook.

And I think it's just still premature to have a clear view about what this is going to look like as you look 12 months out.

And because of monetary policy lags, we really need to be looking a year to a year and a half out.

And there's just not enough information yet about what that looks like.

I do.

Look, you know, traditional central banking, Federal Reserve wisdom is that oil shocks hit headline inflation.

but they don't really pass that much into core by as much as they do into headline.

And the two ways that you would want to respond to it, and so therefore you typically look through an oil shock.

Now, the two exceptions would be if inflation expectations beyond the first year start to move higher.

That hasn't happened thus far.

Inflation expectations for the first year out have moved higher, of course.

But as I look at the CPI swap market beyond the first year, there hasn't been that much movement.

Medium term, five year, five year, longer term, five year, five year forward expectations have actually been coming down

So there's no evidence of that.

And the other reason why you would want to respond to an oil shock is if you saw a wage price spiral, if you saw wages responding to oil price increases, gas price increases, that could result in the type of reinforcing inflation dynamics that you want to forestall.

Now, again, thus far, there's little evidence of that.

In fact, wage pressures have been declining for the last few years on a steady, steady, steady basis.

So that's also something that I don't really see right now.