Stephen Miran

I think doing roll-off is passive and is less likely to have a substantial effect on long rates.

But I think at the end of the day, what really matters is the overall stance of policy as combined short rates and balance sheet policy.

And if you're at the zero lower bound, then the short rate can't do anything.

And then it's the balance sheet policy that's really setting the tone for the bond market, right?

But if you're not at the zero lower bound, then in theory, you can be moving the short rate around to offset whatever you're doing on the balance sheet.

And so what you're doing when you set policies, you're targeting a particular level of financial conditions that let you hit your monetary policy targets, stable prices and maximum employment.

And if for some reason financial conditions were to deviate from what allowed you to hit stable prices and maximum employment, you can change the short rate to offset that and thereby get back to stable prices and maximum employment.

So if you want to shrink the balance sheet because you have a principle that you want the Fed to have a minimal footprint in the economy,

for example, right?

Then if that were to cause an increase in long rates, you can offset that tightening of financial conditions by reducing the short rate.

So as long as you're not the zero lower bound, you have multiple tools to affect this situation.

Look, you know, I think that I think that Chairman Powell, you know, deserves a thank you from all Americans.

I think his work during the during the pandemic recession, you know, was part of a critical effort that really helped save the country from a second Great Depression.

And everyone everyone owes him a thank you for that.

However, I really can't tell you what he's going to decide to do, you know, and you got to get it.

You know, you got to get it from the source.

You know, I don't I don't know.

Yeah, so I'm unsurprisingly the lowest dot.

I'm looking for about a point and a half of cuts.

A lot of that is driven by my view of inflation.