Stephen Miran

I think we have negative net migration when it

comes to the United States this year, right?

So my view is driven by two things.

Services are the more persistent and sticky part of inflation.

Services are driven in large part by housing.

And I expect housing inflation to come down through those channels.

If something were to happen that were to tell me that that channel is invalidated, that there's some shock that's going to be pushing rents materially higher,

The benign inflation forecast that I have would have to be adjusted as a result.

All else equal, right?

If nothing else were to change to offset that.

But to me, that's the core of my inflation view.

And I would want to see something come along and tell me that that channel is wrong and that I'm thinking about it the wrong way.

Yeah, so it's important when you think about economics to think about the elasticity of supply and demand.

And when you cut taxes on American production, whether that's labor or whether it's corporate income, you want to think about the elasticity of supply of those activity.

And is it going to lead to additional labor supply?

Is it going to lead to additional investment?

And so that's the way that cutting taxes can actually generate economic growth in the United States.

When you think about tariffs, again, you think about the elasticity of demand and supply, and in this case, American consumers and firms are the demand, and foreign producers are the supply.

Now, the economic evidence is overwhelmingly that the elasticity of the demand in imports is much higher than the elasticity of the supply.

Put another way, foreign producers are inelastic.