Stephen Miran

where you're removing barriers to operations that companies can make more, more cheaply, which, by the way, is disinflationary and pushes out the Apple cap, then, of course, that's also going to be reflected in asset markets.

So I think it's a mistake to conflate

uh the state of financial conditions with monetary policy they're connected they're related they affect each other but they're not exactly the same thing and in the speech i go line by line through these different items and the reason why monetary policy doesn't have to react to the hawkish side in response to these active into these policy changes is because they push out the supply side of the economy at the same time they push out demand and so if you're increasing supply and demand at the same time there's no change to the output gap and of course it's monetary policy job

at the end of the day to be balancing the output gap, to be balancing aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the economy so it doesn't overheat or underheat.

Yeah, so this year is merely a function of where the calendar is.

So my view is that policy is quite restrictive, and so I'd like to adjust quickly to get back to a more neutral area, right?

That just means a series of 50s until you get much closer to zero.

The fact that it's this year is just a function of the calendar.

But again, it comes back to the longer that you stay restrictive, the greater the risks.

And let me put it this way.

Like, it was just a few years ago

that we were having endless conversations about declining population growth rates and the whole world becoming Japan in terms of interest rate profiles, right?

Those forces are still real.

Those dynamics are still real.

They didn't go away.

Those channels by which population growth affects neutral rates didn't disappear.

I would rather act proactively

And we know that we just had the biggest population growth shocks in many people's lifetimes, mine included.

We know what the consequences of those are economically.

I would rather act proactively and lower rates as a result ahead of time rather than wait for some giant catastrophe to occur because you suddenly wake up and find out that you are resuming those dynamics.