Stephen Stanley

I would say that if the economy is doing better, that is likely to reduce the level of agita in the White House, right?

So even if the Fed is not cutting, as the president has suggested he would like, the

If people are feeling better about the economy and the president is maybe feeling better at the margin about election prospects in November, I suspect the heat will tamp down a little bit.

What we're seeing now is the Fed has moved into pause mode.

And there are at least some on the committee that would like to move further, I think.

But what you heard from Powell in December, I thought was really important, where he said that the rate is now within the plausible range of neutrality.

So there's no urgency to move.

economic issues are going to be very important to voters, right?

So are voters feeling good about things?

Do they feel more confident in their job?

Are they feeling like inflation is less of a concern?

Those are things that are obviously going to, if things are moving in a good direction on that front, that's probably good for the president and for the Republican Party and vice versa.

What we're seeing now is the Fed has moved into pause mode.

And there are at least some on the committee that would like to move further, I think.

But what you heard from Powell in December, I thought was really important, where he said that the rate is now within the plausible range of neutrality.

So there's no urgency to move.