Steve Daghlian

It was a very different set of circumstances back then.

So over the past seven days, our market has fallen by roughly 3%.

Four years ago, our market slumped by 10% over that losing streak because we had the most aggressive interest rate hikes in about 30 years in the US, the hottest inflation in decades post-COVID and recession fears as well in the United States.

But despite this,

even with today's small decline, it means that we're basically at a three-week low and it's just made April not look quite as impressive as it would have otherwise because we know that over the first couple of weeks of the month, the markets were going gangbusters and then we've kind of just taken the shine off that a bit because of the uncertainties and a bunch of data and other things that are due this week.

Yes, so transport costs up roughly 9.2% over the past month.

And as you say, to be expected considering the US-Iran conflict and the impact that has had on petrol prices, but also other energy products and other products as well outside of that space as far as supply is concerned.

So having said that, I mean, we did see headline inflation, you know, largely

as what CVA was expecting, but a touch below consensus.

And that's maybe a reason why we had that nice little boost, at least in the early stages, following the CPI data being handed down.

But that didn't really last too long because trimmed mean or underlying inflation was largely as anticipated, 3.5% higher over the year, well above the 2% to 3% target range that the Reserve Bank's

once.

So I don't think it's really changed much as far as what is next for the Reserve Bank.

So the RBA is meeting next Tuesday and Monday.

And prior to the data, we had markets pricing in 80% chance roughly of an interest rate hike next week.

Now the market reckons that's dropped back a bit to 70%.

So at the end of the day, it still looks like the RBA is probably going to feel inclined to lift interest rates and not risk sitting on its hands for another month.

Yeah, and for those who want a bit more insight into today's inflation numbers, you can head over to our socials.

Our colleague and morning podcast host, James Gruber, recorded his thoughts on the data, what it means as well.

And while you're there, you can check out our Market Moves content.