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Steve Keen

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
316 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

They published a paper called The Capital Asset Pricing Model Theory and Evidence in 2004.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

And they literally said that this should not be used for practical purposes.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

Now they continue promoting it because they can't work anything else to do.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

You'd also know of Sharpe who came up with the idea of the capital asset pricing model itself.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

wrote that he made the assumptions to actually go from a model of a single individual to the model of the entire market.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

He said he's seen what he called homogeneity of investor expectations.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

Investors are seen to agree on all the various details, the mean return, standard deviations, et cetera, for every share in the market.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

And he justified that by an appeal to Friedman's nonsense ideas of methodology.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

But in the paper in 2004, Fama and French, first of all, said it fails.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

It doesn't empirically fit the data by any stretch of imagination.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

And in fact, the angle, like it'll talk about the slope of a trade-off between risk and return.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

Well, the slope has to be the opposite of what they say when you do the empirical measurements.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

And they admitted in that paper that not only does Sharpe assume that we all have the same expectations, he also assumes they're correct.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

That's William Sharpe, right?

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

Yeah, well, that's stuff you can find in alternative theorems.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

So you've got, for example, the stuff that Mandelbrot gave us, the fractal markets hypothesis.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

That's one that covers it.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

You get the work of Hagen.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

Yeah.

The MOST Important Thing
How Prof. Steve Keen Predicted the 2008 Crash and What (he says) Economists Still Get Wrong

Well, he said textbook bullshit.