Steve McKnight

And so what's really interesting here is that

In previous podcasts, I've talked about how the Reserve Bank might not ramp up the OCR if all of this inflation is imported, which is basically what it is, right?

New Zealand's domestic inflation, non-tradable inflation, is basically flat at the moment.

The reason that they're taking the OCR or forecasting that they're going to take the OCR back up to 3% is just to remove any stimulus from the economy.

The fact that the OCR has been at 2.25%, that tells us that's what we consider to be a stimulatory position where they're trying to get the economy going.

And what they're effectively saying is, look, if inflation is going to be outside our target band, we want it to be 1% to 3%.

We're going to be sitting at 4.3% by their forecast.

Let's just take away that stimulus because we don't necessarily want the economy rushing forward and adding more inflation when we're trying to get less of it anyway.

So it's not necessarily that they're trying to knock us all over the head and say, stop spending, you profligate little New Zealanders, you little consumers.

They're saying, hey, we're not going to put on the brakes, but we're going to take off the acceleration.

Oh, sorry, Andrew.

You were talking to your wife.

I was talking to my wife.

I knew it.

Let me just pull them up now.

Well, can I just say on the OCR, by the way, while I'm waiting for my swap rates to come up,

because the markets have been pricing in some increase, right?

Yeah.

For a while.

But one thing that's really interesting is the Reserve Bank gave us three different scenarios in their reports as well.