Steve Yates
Appearances
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
Well, I mean, I'm okay with removing all the portraits of generals that suggested they were going to call the Chinese Communist Party and give them a heads up if the commander in chief was seeking to do something to them. If that story was true, then I think the removal of the portrait is a good down payment on what ought to come. Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked by little things here or there.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
And just for those that are keeping score, within an hour of the inauguration in 2021, I was leading a nonprofit grantee organization of the federal government. Received an illegal termination letter from the Biden team. Could have spent a year's salary fighting it. And then what? Win a chance to work for the people who didn't want me there?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
So just in case anyone thought that this was the only time people might be petty and whatever else, it's been going on a bit. So I'm not shocked that it's going back the other way. And Milley was outspoken in some other areas that are just not with the program that seems to be, soon to be, Secretary Pete is going to be putting through the building.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
There was no W in the vice president's office, national security staff computers.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
Well, I find it to be very reassuring in the sense that he's got a pretty long record of pretty deep exposure on almost every area of foreign policy. He has run for president and got now deeper than the average bear in the intersection between national politics and where foreign policy might be. And he flew very close to the sun in the 2016 cycle. The wings melted.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
He came back to earth, but survived and seems to have come up with a way to understand the movement that has reelected Donald Trump that goes beyond just the man. And he seems to have found a way to get along with the man too, which all says to me, I mean, I was in politics before.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
It wasn't necessarily the greatest of successes you learn from your losses in a way, but Rubio is on another level in that. And so I see a sense of maturity in him in doing this. I think he'll be an asset articulating what this America First foreign policy agenda is going to be. But the world is a tricky place.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
I expect we're going to get some challenges coming up in 2025 after the dust settles, and we'll see how the team works when it really matters.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
Well, very, very clear that the president is going to push hard for some kind of terms that, as he puts it, ends the killing. And if you can get a cessation of hostilities, then you start trying to come up with... some kind of a framework that is short-term, medium-term, where you try to work out reconstruction of affected areas.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
There have to be questions of what boundaries of Ukraine are going to be recognized, how peace is kept in the Russian occupied areas that they're not likely to give up. in the near term, even under some kind of a ceasefire or peace agreement.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
So, there's a lot of working pieces in that, and pretty clear he's going to be pushing Europe pretty hard, that Europeans can and should afford to do more for other Europeans. Having Andy Puzder as the ambassador to the EU, I think, is really interesting. and having Matt Whitaker go to be ambassador to NATO.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
Matt is an Iowa football-sized ambassador, a strong mind, an attorney, was acting attorney general before. He's going to be a force on behalf of the president's agenda. Those two will be a really interesting team engaging Europe. as they try to work that through. But the president's tried to put some feelers out for where Vladimir Putin is on this stuff.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
We don't have to like the fellow in Moscow to understand that if you're really going to have some kind of enduring peace agreement, you're going to have to talk to him. I don't understand why Biden didn't do that. But I think here we are, and we're just going to be watching. And of course, General Keith Kellogg has been made special envoy specifically to work through all of that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
And he and his friends at the America First Policy Institute have laid out some plausible benchmarks for that. But we'll have to see what reality is now that the team's in government.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
Yeah, I think that people have mostly focused on his statements over the years where he talks about how well he gets along with some of these tough guys around the world. To me, this is just Trump 101, where he is constantly shaping the information environment and constantly shaping the relationship environment to try to set up terms for negotiation. And so if you're going in and you're trying to
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
push for some kind of concessions or agreements, and you're talking up how strong and smart the other guy is, maybe that opens the door. But you might want to remind him where his vulnerabilities are, and we know so that he doesn't get too greedy in what the aspiring position might be for where this dust should settle with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. So I just see that as Trump being Trump.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
I think it's going to be very hard to see where the conversation with Putin comes down until they really get into it. This is a really tough situation. You know it very, very well. Them having taken Crimea decisively so many years ago and not really having to give any of it back is a pretty bad down payment on where this could end up in this second invasion.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
Well, it is kind of the power play. I think there's, to a lot of Americans, there's two things with the security clearances versus the security details. The security details were being provided because of the elimination of Iran's top spy when he made the mistake of hanging out in Iraq. And the Iranians had threatened retaliation.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
Of course, the Iranians had threatened assassination of President Trump over the course of this presidential campaign, too. And so this isn't just idle words and playing around. But I think to a lot of Americans, they might be surprised that any of these past officials still have active security clearances. And why would they? Why should they? People that swim in the swamp know that...
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
The security clearances are keys to the realm to get some consulting contracts, might be good for onward advisement on boards or whatever else. But to most people, they probably think, hey, when the door closes and you're out, why are you cleared for anything anyway? I think that's a separate issue.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
I've long advocated that unless you have some really mission relevant active program you're working on, you really shouldn't have. an active security clearance. But I've been an outlier for many years. I think John Ratcliffe is going to put some reforms in place that might be more in the direction of my predisposition, but let's see. The details part is a little bit surprising.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
I've traveled with Pompeo and he definitely had a diplomatic security and other security detail with him. Robert O'Brien had his detail pulled back much earlier, but he supplemented it with private security, which is frankly what these other guys should do.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
And if you're a John Bolton and you thought that you could do the, let me say, inglorious thing of writing a book while you're in office as national security advisor that smears the guy you're supposed to be serving, well, then you shouldn't be shocked that anything gets pulled back. And maybe you should reach into that bag of cash you got for the book and pay for your own darn security.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
If you're Pompeo, you're former Secretary of State, former DCI, there may be a question of how long this should last, but this seemed to be a political move. We'll see how it plays out. Before anyone just sort of gets too wound up with the heartstrings about it, I think these guys can afford to pay for their own security at this point.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
And if there's a real threat, then yeah, we should protect Americans that are at risk.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
Well, I mean, there's really a lot to draw from because there's a lot of statement setting executive orders that are out there. I mean, one that might seem silly, but you got to show up to work order might be really, really consequential because even in the national security space, there are a lot of people that have not been showing up to work every day since COVID. And that was 2020, 2021.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
We're in 2025 now. And so, that might seem a small thing, but I think it'll make a little bit of difference.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
Well, I mean, it's one of those things where if you don't show up, why are we providing this building? And are we sure we need your full time if you're not giving us your full time? And so I think that's a really, really important move to remind people of for whom they work and to whom they're accountable.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
But beyond that, it might not seem like national security, but I think it really sets up the strategic competition with China in a profound way. It was this massive announcement of a half a trillion dollar potential investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure in the United States.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
I consider this to be like the space race of the past, or the Manhattan Project on nuclear weapons, where we're gonna invest in the architecture that we need, the energy, base load energy that we need, the real estate cooling capabilities, the personnel, all the things that are necessary to stay in a leading role in this and win the future on AI, those inputs are gonna have spillover effects
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
for our economy, for our military supply chains. I think it has the potential to revolutionize not just how we think about America, but what American's real comprehensive national power is.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
And without having to attack China, I think we and our responsible allies really have a way to chart a path toward peace and prosperity that kind of leaves them in the dust unless they behave more responsibly and more accountably. So, I think that's actually a massive, massive deal.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
They had been trying to corner the market, and we in the West, more broadly, have enabled them to somewhat corner the market on the inputs necessary for a high-tech, modern manufacturing export economy. And we've become overly dependent upon them. They are trying to corner the market on inputs for batteries. They're trying to corner the market on developing increasingly advanced chips.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
And even some of the lower-grade chips are still really important to our supply chains. And so, I think this is a down payment on telling them, we're serious about coming back, and we're serious about competing, and we're serious about not being dependent on you. That's not going to change things tomorrow, or next week, or next month. But it does shift things into another gear.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
And if the Chinese are thinking in cycles longer than the news cycle or our political cycle, this is going to resonate with them in a way that maybe causes them to have to think twice about pushing too hard too fast.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
I think Gordon is largely right, and the concept of war is different for the Communist Party than it is for most Americans, even in American leadership, because they follow kind of a people's war mentality. It's a comprehensive thing that involves everything from ideological and political war to being involved in economic warcraft.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
And so they've been engaged in a lot of elements of classical warfare for the whole period of pretty generous engagement we've had with them. And I think we've just started to sober up to elements of it. And a lot of the threats that they pose to us can do pretty bad damage without there having to be a classical war where aircraft carriers are moving and missiles are flying.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
There's a lot that they can do with bio threats and cyber threats and human threats. Even if you just look at the merger of a bioagent and drone technology, we have a terrifying level of vulnerability on that front from my point of view.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
I wouldn't want to encourage them on that, but I do think that, again, this investment in AI and the kinds of technologies that will be related to it give us the best shot of preserving a sense of homeland security and eliminating some of those vulnerabilities. So I think Gordon is largely right about the direction. We don't get to know when or how they choose to do things.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
COVID was something in that. Fentanyl is something in that. The balloon was something in that. But there's more elements to it. And I think we've got an administration now that is taking some of the layers of that more seriously. And so, everything from the Ag Department to our Secretary of Interior being in charge of the Energy Commission,
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
that the president is using, is going to look at our federal lands and the resources there. It just shows us serious as a purpose to lessen that dependence and kind of make us better prepared for contingencies. But that military manufacturing supply chain, that's the mother load. We are way behind on that. And so I hope that all this money is going to be investing in that. Yeah.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
Well, I think that there's a mix, as far as I can tell, of what the public statements have been. Of course, the public statements of the president are going to matter more than the chattering classes that occupy the rings below him in agencies. But there's a clear sense that Xi Jinping stating things like having Plausible military options by 2027 have not gone unnoticed.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
The pressure that has been very obvious in Europe to increase defense spending and provide for self-defense and collective defense is echoed in Asia. And there's been a movement in the right direction in several quarters. The challenge we have is that democracies can have divided government.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
We have South Korea with a lot of natural assets that are relevant to all of this that are sort of crucifying themselves politically right now with two impeachments in a row of a president and an acting president.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
We have to see how that sorts out, but we have a military alliance and a manufacturing supply chain on tech, but also shipbuilding that's really, really critical there that is going to matter. Japan has increased defense spending and done things in categories outside of defense like Coast Guard activity that's meaningful to maritime security in the region.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
And they're working with the Philippines in ways that seem to have awakened. All of that is not direct Taiwan, but around Taiwan it complicates the freedom of action that China has had. And it sort of solidifies that first island chain in ways that the United States doesn't have to play a direct role, but the Trump team is going to have to do some direct things. That supply chain matters.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
Taiwan paid for billions of dollars in articles that were supposed to be delivered in 2023. It's 2025 and they're nowhere to be seen. That's on us. We got to make sure that we're building things on time and at cost before we're jawboning allies to pay more.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
It's at least as important as the missile gap was when Kennedy was trying to bring it up, leaving aside real or unreal. This is a real gap, and I think it's strategically possibly the most important gap we have.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
Well, I have to separate a little bit of the personal and the practical on this one, because I have personal skin in the game on what happens with the cartels and the Chinese money launderers that work with them, because the fentanyl that they work on killed my daughter, and I want some retribution on that front, and so do hundreds of thousands of other American families.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
But in terms of the practical operations of this, if you look at it just from a policy view, after 9-11, a lot of tools were opened up under terrorism designations, whether they were treasury tools that were used to go after funds, to close accounts, squeeze people, special sanctions that could be targeted on individuals.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
Also approvals for action that could be taken in the clandestine side of the government once you move into this category that otherwise wouldn't be dealt with the same way. I don't think any American can step back and say,
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
that the cartels haven't already been at war with us, and what they've been doing in American society is at least as significant as a terrorist act that people would usually think of, whether it's the Twin Towers, the Pentagon getting hit. other kinds of actions. But what does it really mean?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
I strongly suspect there's going to be some demonstrated hit on those capabilities within the first few months of the administration. And I expect that there's going to be a reaction to that. We're going to have to see how that plays out. I hope what it actually means, though, is that key bank accounts in Mexico and in Asia get a quick thaw.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
And we'll see whether they make a recalibration on their business as a result of those financial measures. But, you know, it's a really important move. I think it's been waiting for a long time and we'll have to see what the response is.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
Well, it's dangerous. I mean, they face life and death in their own country and we may too in some ways in response to this and that really can't be taken lightly. It's one thing to talk about making these moves. But these cartels have horrifying lethal capabilities. And because of dastardly policies in our own country, they have reach into a lot of our communities.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 25th, 2025: The Border Crackdown Has Already Begun & Trump Cleans House in DC
And so if they really want to make Americans feel pain, they can and they might. And we have to be careful about that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Well, it's definitely different, but we are in unprecedented times and circumstances in any number of different ways. I have kind of noted the Riyadh location as being interesting also in a number of ways. Obviously, Secretary Rubio arrived there and was talking with various folks about things that were not just Russia-Ukraine related, and having that
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
sort of great power conversation there couldn't have gone unnoticed by Tehran. And so, it's also a signal of where things may be going with regard to the broader Middle East revival of notions of Abraham Accords elements, maximum pressure towards Iran, et cetera, et cetera, we shall see. But that's sort of some of the preamble to the main
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
horse that was sitting across the table with Russia in Saudi Arabia. It's definitely true that Ukraine wasn't present, but Keith Kellogg has been in Ukraine a lot, and he has a lot of experience having been in Ukraine before going back to the White House as a special envoy this time. And Vice President Vance, Secretary Rubio, Secretary Hegseth, all had been through Europe
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And so it's not as if they haven't been a part of conversations. They were not in this room, but it's also be really fair to say that the bases have not been touched. Now, we do have the conversation in Riyadh. It's kind of hard to tell what exactly was transacted. It sure seemed to me to be kind of a temperature taker, a scene setter.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
It seemed like the president asked Secretary Rubio, give me a sense of, are the Russians really willing to deal on some of the terms that we've talked about? Is there kind of a stable landing place here to reduce tensions and pick up where we are? And just acknowledging that we aren't where we were in 21 and 22, that there's been three years of a war of attrition that's been grinding along.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And so we're not really looking at optimal outcomes. We're looking at the outcomes we might work with now, kind of said. And it seems like Secretary Rubio told the president that we've got something to work with. We shall see. At least that's the impression the president has hinted at.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Yeah, I think there's pieces of this that I think are worth kicking around. Obviously, the relationship between Trump and Zelensky was never good. And I don't think it's going to end up good. There is this substantive issue of we are fighting for democracy, but right now Ukraine is not entering into an election cycle. And so there's going to be some bumps and bruises there for sure.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
I also just don't take the first round. I see this as sort of like a heavyweight match where we're going to have multiple rounds. And so there's been jousting and floating of ideas and things that happened in the course of the campaign of things getting tossed out. There's been exploring of where things might go through the transition.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
So I think there's a lot of kicking the tires in multiple directions going on. So I don't take the Riyadh meeting as the beginning of even the really much more than just the first stage of where are we. after three years of Joe Biden not talking with Putin at all.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And we can argue whether you should or you shouldn't, but to your point to a degree, if you're going to get a durable peace deal, how are you going to get it if you don't have any talk directly with the Russian side? So, this might just be a different way of inchworming toward where this sit down might ultimately get. But
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
I think they would have been foolish to imagine that you're going to go to Riyadh, sit down, and come out with a victory that's durable. This is at best a temperature take for how to proceed.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
I don't disagree on that front either. I mean, it just is definitely when there's rifts on your opposition side, you probably have net advantage. We'll see how all that rolls forward. But there's also this issue of the NATO versus not NATO issue. I mean, really before NATO. The first Trump term was over. Trump and his team were not advocates for Ukraine joining NATO.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And there was a debate about, is this provocative? Now, I'm not a super fan of blaming the victim if the victim is provocative to an aggressive neighbor, but there is a certain logic to what's the net gain and what's the net risk in doing so, especially if you have Europe that's not ready, willing, and able to step up the way they should. And so I think that was part of the calculus on NATO.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
I do think that there's going to have to be security assurances for Ukraine, and they're going to have to be better than what the early non-Lugar promise was. If you give up your nukes, we'll protect your territory. That didn't happen. It can't be what Putin says that no European forces, no NATO forces can be there. And so he's free to say what he thinks he's gotten at this stage.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
I think this is verbal jousting. Look, I don't think that they're going to get to a conclusion. under the shortened timeline.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
From the sort of Indo-Pacific or Asia theater, looking back in the direction of what's going on with Russia and Ukraine, and also the Gaza and broader Middle East situation, Certainly, China thinks at some level there is advantage when America is distracted or spread thinly. We also have a lot going on domestically.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And so they might feel like these are times of opportunity to maybe seek some advantage with President Trump and the new team. However, I think that they're a little bit concerned about the new administration because it's Not necessarily as predictable as they might have had with previous administrations.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And they aren't completely sure that if they poke the bear, the bear might not swat back in certain ways. So they know that there is an initial wave of tariffs. Maybe they can negotiate a way or act in ways that get round two of that conversation, but maybe the tariffs go up or target other areas. They also see this Doge effort, which is a real distraction in the United States.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
But if the Doge stuff is serious about making our Pentagon manufacturing supply chains more timely, more productive at lower cost. It means we have more lethality as Secretary Hegseth likes to focus on going out there. And we've got things we can sell to our allies and partners that would challenge the stuff that China's got coming down the line.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
It doesn't affect today, but it certainly affects the horizon. So it's a mixed bag for They do like us bogged down and distracted, but I don't know that they're sitting as pretty as we might imagine. They've got pressure at home on their economy. Their periphery is a little bit wise to what they've been up to on encroachments.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Prime Minister of Japan and Prime Minister of India came and had amazingly positive meetings in Washington in terms of the optics and the sort of issue briefs that came out of there. So, there's a little bit for Beijing to sit back and think, what exactly is the lay of the land here of this new team?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Well, I think it's their domestic economy. We have a lot of people who are great experts that have partial visions in, but it's like people in the dark being able to describe a different part of an elephant. No one's got clear, transparent, verifiable visibility into what the nuts and bolts of the Chinese economy really are. There's a property bubble that's awful.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
You can see videos of huge multiplexes of high rises getting demolitioned. They've got a changing population curve where they're not having kids, not marrying, going later in life. How do you have this mass manufacturing economy if you don't have humans to go in at low wages to do that stuff? There's sort of the political tension.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Xi Jinping, as leader of China, has opted for control and stability rather than growth and openness, which was the old ethos of reform and opening under Deng Xiaoping famously. And I think that some elements of the Chinese populace are getting sore by that and don't really want this picking a fight all around the world. They want to take care of schools and bridges and jobs for the future at home.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Yeah. That pharmaceutical question is front and center. It's really, really big and important and urgent. And India is definitely a part of that. That is not bringing things back to the American shore, but it's certainly better than being overly dependent on the People's Republic of China and quality control issues there. But there's a couple of big umbrellas.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Now, both of those state visits I mentioned I guess they weren't full state visits in the protocol sense. But both of those prime ministerial visits from Japan and India talked about investment in the United States, joint manufacturing. There was a lot under the umbrella of this AI infrastructure initiative that's up to a trillion dollars. It was rolled out before these visits happened.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And you've got Japanese, Indian, and other allied equities that might be able to do more in the United States.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Or we recognize, especially like on our defense supply chain, that's an area where India has a lot of growth potential that we could do some things where we're not ready to accelerate the manufacturing lines in the United States, where we can manufacturing some things out of Korea, Japan, India, other places to fill some of these gaps on a nearer timeline. And they're open to that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And then there's a lot of training that we can do for their militaries here in continental United States and areas where we collaborate in technology, software, and hardware. So, I see that manufacturing at home as a serious initiative. It's one of those things, it's an aircraft carrier turning slowly. The Japanese investment to save US steel in Pennsylvania is a down payment.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Maybe that can be replicated in other areas where the Japanese investor profits some, a community is saved, and an industry is saved in different parts of the US. If you replicate that among good, reliable, willing partners, We've got a bit of an American revival and it changes the political coalition behind it. So, some of the elements are there.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
I think the energy piece is absolutely central to this. And so, having Doug Burgum push that we're going to be extracting on federal lands and maybe tribal lands,
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Looking again at Alaska as being really a state of the United States where we're going to fuel America and fuel our allies so they don't have to rely on the Straits of Malacca and Southeast Asia to have sort of resilient supply chains for energy. These are the building blocks that I see coming together. But we're at the front end. It's going to take years of investment and co-development.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Yeah, interesting, though.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Well, unfortunately, we're wildly behind the curve. Our main advantage is that our technology is better and our fighting force is proven, trained, combat experienced and ready.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And for every one of our quality platforms and divisions, China is going to lose 10 times that amount in crap when they go into conflict because they're untested, don't have quality control, et cetera, but they have quantity. And that quantity is definitely getting out there. But America has stood in its own way on everything from submarines to surface vessels to aircraft.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And that's where, you know, I think we have this unique moment where I might hope for the impossible. that Doge and Hegseth with a new mandate can really do what people my entire lifetime have talked about but never succeeded in doing, which is shortening these timelines for a manufacturer, hold things under budget, actually put things out into the world on time for us and for our allies.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Yeah, we've stopped processing, we stopped building terminals, Even just the ship building facilities themselves have atrophied into oblivion as we've allowed a lot of that to go overseas. And so that's where politics in the United States, misaligned priorities, a belief that you can globalize these things and not have consequences for our defense supply chain is wrong on all accounts.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And now we have to play catch up.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Well, in some ways, we are where we've always been. It's just people dive in and out of the movie. The movie's still going when everyone has stepped out to get their popcorn and come back into the theater. So there's still coercion campaigns underway by China where they're doing what people call gray zone operations, whether it's by sea or air. Cyber attacks are constant.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
It's probably the most attacked geography on the planet per capita. And so that just persists. There has been some marginal progress in that those two visits I talked about, there were joint statements with Japan and India that they said the usual about wanting differences across the Taiwan Strait to be settled peacefully, but also they said free of coercion.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
So, that free of coercion is a nice little twist. It's just rhetoric, but it does hit the bullseye on what China has gotten away with without even getting a rhetorical knuckle wrap. And so there's at least been a little bit more acknowledgement that China's crossed a line a bit with its coercive campaign. It's done it against Japan and the Philippines too.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And the major powers of the world are starting to talk in ways that are making this more than just the politics of is Taiwan a part of China, which is the way the CCP likes to keep it. And Taiwan itself is facing what everyone else is. I mean, Prime Minister Modi's in D.C. That was tariff day. Cross-the-board tariffs were coming out, right?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Well, he had to smile and accentuate the positive in the U.S.-India relationship. Well, Taiwan's got a bit of that, too. They're a really important part of our technological supply chain. A lot of our R&D gets actually manufactured there, then comes back into big name brand industries in the United States. And the Trump administration is talking about tariffing the middle of that supply chain.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Now, I understand why. I hope it's just negotiating stuff because I just don't think tactically it's a great move to tariff the middle of a supply chain when we have equities on both other ends of it. So hopefully that picture is more fulsomely conveyed. But Taiwan's sort of on its good days. They have a little less threat from China, but they've got this tariff challenge coming on the other end.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
Yeah.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
I think just more broadly, they're going to be looking to sort of follow the Japan and India models. of how are they investing more in the United States? How are they co-manufacturing more in the United States? How are we making this beyond just imports, exports, and trade lawyers talking, but a broader economic strategic relationship?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
And if they're doing that, that's a little bit more than happened during the Biden years. And frankly, I think it would be for the good of the order if they do that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | February 22, 2025: Is A Shooting War Coming In Mexico? & Peace Talks Over Ukraine Begin
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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
For all intents and purposes, lost Hamas as a military organization in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah is badly weakened. Now you have the fall of Assad. So prior to the fall of Assad, the theory from the Iranian side was, well, Hezbollah is badly weakened, but we can ship more weapons, trainers through Syria. They'll get to Lebanon.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
They'll rebuild Hezbollah pretty fast, and we'll be in pretty good shape. Now they've lost that. They're going to need to rebuild some way to reconstitute some of Hezbollah's forces, providing them with weapons and those sorts of things. I think in the coming months, you're going to see Iran try to think about how to do that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
But I think you're also liable to see, in the coming years, Iran really rethink its overall security strategy in the Middle East in a way that it hasn't in decades. I think that's going to be a really important thing to watch, especially as we go in to a new U.S. administration. Well, and then the Supreme Leader is what, 85 years old and reportedly not in the best of health.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
And they've been talking already about the succession plans. And the IRGC, I believe, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the IRGC is angling to play more of a role in who that will be at the end of the day. So with the Iranian regime, is there a sense that they're done in Syria? Or is there a sense that perhaps...
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
They'll come to some accommodation with the new government, whatever that new government looks like. What do you think about that? I don't know. I think there's a sense that they're going to try. I don't know how successful they will be. Obviously, HTS and the rebels writ large have been fighting the Iranians for years at this point. So there's no love lost there.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
He's the Middle East portfolio manager for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Brian, welcome back and thank you for showing up two weekends in a row. It's very impressive. Thanks for having me. Good to be back. Now, listen, we finished up last weekend's episode as the rebels were advancing and we all saw what was happening, which was a very rapid advance.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
And I think that's a really important piece of context to keep in mind. But at the same time, I don't think Iran necessarily sees itself as bounded by this government in power. I think that it will try to work with this government. But I also think Iran will try to get its hooks into other organizations in Syria, try to rebuild some sort of resistance network in Syria.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
In fact, they've talked a little bit about this. The Supreme Leader said just the other day in a speech about Syria, he said, the Syrian youth will rise up again, just like the Iraqi youth rised up against the U.S. occupation of Iraq between 2003 and 2011.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
clearly alluding that there is some idea in his mind that, hey, maybe we can build some sort of resistance organizations in Syria to fight this so-called occupying government. I mean, in the short term, the rebels, I think the citizens of Damascus, they took to the streets and they ransacked Iranian facilities, certainly the embassy and other offices.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
But you look at the Russian side, and it seems like the Russian government has been able to somehow orchestrate an accommodation, because it doesn't appear as if there's been any movement towards those Russian facilities or even the embassy in Damascus. I'm not exactly sure what is going on behind the scenes.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. This weekend, coming to you from the Middle East. Let's get briefed. We're starting things off in Syria, where the fall of President Assad has dramatically shifted power dynamics in the Middle East. We'll be joined by Brian Carter of the American Enterprise Institute for more on that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
I will say that the Russians have been slowly kind of withdrawing their forces over the last couple of days. We're seeing indications now of Russians moving west to east towards Tartus and towards Khmeimim, where they have their naval base and air base, respectively. You know, honestly, from the rebel perspective, I'm sure it's a little bit of...
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
hey, we've got Damascus, let's try not to bite too much off, more than we can chew here, and try to consolidate what we've got rather than trying to break into the Russian base and fight the Russians. It's similar in a sense to how the Taliban perhaps had a little bit of a disengagement system with the U.S. forces at Hamid Karzai International Airport during the Afghanistan evacuation.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
To what degree do you understand the various elements? Obviously, HTS is the lead dog in this pack of rebels who engaged in the offensive. But what do you know about the other groups? And to what degree do you believe HTS is going to be successful in cobbling all of them together and holding them together rather than having some disastrous chaotic fracturing as we saw in a way in Iraq? Yeah.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Yeah, so I think that's a really important question that not enough people are asking right now. We're trying to keep a good track of the different constituent elements of HTS. We're still working on that problem right now.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
But I think one of the things to watch here is that HTS, while its leader is kind of putting forward this moderate face and saying, hey, we're not going to go to Sharia law, we're isn't all of HTS. And within HTS, there are a bunch of jihadist organizations that have a much more extreme line.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
And so the open question in my eyes is, is Jolani, the leader of HTS and kind of the leader of all the rebels at this point, going to be able to keep those extremist factions in line? Are these extremist factions going to start kind of going off on their own and doing their own thing? And what will that look like?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Will they begin to say, you know, Jolani is not implementing the Sharia and therefore we have a huge problem with this. And, you know, we're not going to be a part of this anymore. And so I think Jolani is going to have to do a lot of work within his coalition. But also those coalition members can just go off on their own and do things like.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
But then I think my last question for you last weekend was, do you expect out of all of this activity, do you expect Assad to be toppled? And you said yes. But did you expect it to happen in the span of a few days? No, not at all. I thought he had, you know, at least a couple more days beyond that. It all happened so fast.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
For instance, if they started spurring sectarian violence or widespread revenge killing, that could put us on a very scary trajectory, like I talked about just a little ago. Yeah, I was in a walk in the early days. It was this euphoria, much like we see on the streets of Damascus and elsewhere in Syria, you know, and rightly so. People are excited. They're happy.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
You also see a sense of nervousness, I think, amongst the crowds. They're a little unsure as to what comes next. But for right now, they're just enjoying the moment. I think that moment doesn't last long. And so I think whether it's Al Jolani or some coalition, he's named a bureaucrat basically to run an interim government, Muhammad al-Bashir.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
But, you know, I look at what happened in Iraq as sort of a case study of what not to do, because that went from euphoria to chaos and brutality very quickly. That's exactly right. And that's one of the pieces that I kind of have in my own mind right now, too, is the Iraq crisis. the Iraq case.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
I actually think one of the interesting elements of the Syria case is, whereas in Iraq, Saddam is toppled by a U.S.-led military invasion, this is led by an internal uprising, which is important because there's even more euphoria both in the international community and within Syria because people say, hey, the Syrians have overthrown the Assad regime.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Everybody, like you said, is rightfully super happy about that. But we do need to keep an eye out for what comes next and be tracking any indicators that this is going to go on a scary trajectory, just like Iraq did, and fall into chaos. Well, listen, last weekend when you were on the Situation Report, you predicted accurately that Assad would topple.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Again, we had no idea with the speed that was going to happen. But look, since you turned out to be the amazing Kreskin, do you have any predictions about Syria and what's going to happen in the short term for this weekend's show? I'll try to go two for two here, but I think in the northeast, that's the area that I'm really looking at.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
And so one of my predictions would have to be, you know, I think that this this pattern of Arab defection from the Syrian Democratic Forces, the U.S. backed group up there is going to continue regardless of whether or not the Turkish offensive continues. And so I think that will cause significant problems for the US presence going forward. And so that's kind of my prediction of the week. Yeah.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Let's hope you're right again, man. Listen, Brian, thank you very, very much for coming back. Brian Carter, the Middle East Portfolio Manager for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. I look forward to the next time you're on the show. Maybe it's next weekend, depending on what happens. Listen, thank you very much for your time, man. Thank you. Always a fun time.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Appreciate it. Have a good one. All right. Coming up next, China's military. What are they doing? Well, they're flexing muscles near Taiwan. That's not shocking, I suppose. They've been doing that for a little while now, sparking global concern, rightly so. Senior Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, Steve Yates, good friend, joins us to analyze what this means for the region and the U.S.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
You know, I think one of the comparisons I've been drawing over the last couple of days is for those of us who watched the collapse of the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, it was very reminiscent of that, except even faster, which was, I think, very surprising for a lot of us who have watched this conflict for many years. And, you know, we haven't seen the front lines move at all in four or five years.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
response. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, look, maybe you heard about this, but America just got done with that historical election. Yeah, it was rather historical, and I'm sure you have heard about it. Now, sure, there's going to be some change in the White House. There always is when there's a change in administrations, but the fundamentals haven't changed.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
And the problem is the dollar is in decline, with the U.S. adding... You won't believe this, $100,000 in debt every second, $100,000 in new debt every second. Meanwhile, BRICS nations, right, have introduced what they call the unit, a new global currency pegged 40% to gold and 60% to BRICS currencies, which could mark the beginning of a global monetary reset. Now, what do we do about that?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Here's what you do. Call 1-888-870-5457 for a free investor guide. And this is important. Patriot Gold Group is Consumer Affairs' top-rated gold IRA dealer for seven years in a row. And I'm here to tell you, that's a lot of years in a row. Again, call 1-888-870-5457. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, here's an interesting fact.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Did you know that 60% of the clothes that we buy end up in a landfill within a year of being made? Think about that. 60%, one year, Bob's your uncle, landfill. Contrast that with the past. I mean, historically, our clothes were something that we held on to for a long time, right? But big apparel companies, well, they're constantly finding ways to make clothes faster and cheaper.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Get 20% off your first order when you use promo code Baker, that's B-A-K-E-R, at American-Giant.com. That's 20% off when you use code Baker at American-Giant.com.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Now, in response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-da's recent visits to Hawaii and Guam, China has launched extensive military exercises around Taiwan. That's fairly standard, anytime Lai Ching-da does something that the Chinese regime doesn't like. Xi Jinping throws his teddy out of the crib.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Why the speed of the regime's fall? What was it that led to it? Look, he battled them almost into submission back in, what, 2015, 2016, obviously largely with the Russians' help. But what was a major contributor to his downfall this time?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
These maneuvers involved nearly 100 naval and Coast Guard vessels, marking one of the largest displays of forces in the last three decades. Now, the drill spanned the Taiwan Strait and instead into the Western Pacific, with China imposing temporary airspace restrictions along its southeast coast until December 11th.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Taiwan's defense ministry has heightened its alert status, establishing an emergency response center and conducting its own combat readiness exercises. The United States has expressed concern, well, that's good, urging China to avoid actions that could destabilize regional peace.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
For more on this, let me bring in Senior Research Fellow for China and National Security at the Heritage Foundation's Asia Studies Center, and that would be the insightful Steve Yates. Steve, thanks very much for joining us here on the Situation Report.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Let's start with a 30,000-foot view on this thing. What is up with the Chinese military and their recent military exercises involving Taiwan?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Is this working towards an actual takeover in whatever form that is of Taiwan or is this all about messaging at this point?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Yeah, I'm not quite sure on specifics, although it was very evident just based on what we were seeing, that there was a bunch of institutional rot and demoralization within the Syrian Arab Army. I mean, if you watched what was happening and how these forces were just collapsing, it was very clear that there was something very wrong with these forces. We saw, for example...
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
You think part of it is the fact that the Chinese military really hasn't been tested for a very long time and that part of this is an effort to kind of see what their current status is, what their capabilities are?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Yeah. Is it true that their shipbuilding capabilities kind of dwarf those of the U.S. ?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Well, I mean, part of that is also, I think, in a way beyond our control, because I would argue that a lot of that transfer has been through economic espionage and theft of intellectual property and research and development.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Yeah, Elvis has left the building, I think. So this is a tough question. It's probably not a fair question even, but if you had to look at a timeframe for Taiwan, what would that timeframe look like in terms of a Chinese takeover? Again, no matter what the scenario is, how they do it, whether it's a kinetic war, whether it's a soft takeover, but what do you think that timeline looks like?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
I think it was right before I came on your program last weekend, the rebels had advanced to this large bridge over a major river, and instead of blowing the bridge, the Syrian Arab Army kept retreating and had an aircraft bomb the bridge, which is not very practical. It usually doesn't work to actually destroy a bridge.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
But how do you do that, Steve?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
From a foreign policy perspective though, national security and strategic intelligence perspective, what do you think, what's your assessment of the incoming administration, the Trump administration?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
And so that was a big indicator for me that something is badly wrong within these military formations, and they're collapsing very rapidly. And to what degree was it a factor, the lack of support from either the Russians or the Iranians? Yeah, I think that was a factor.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
With the exception of perhaps the differences about the utility of tariffs, I think in terms of China as a concern, as a threat, that does seem to be one of those few bipartisan issues. And you'd like to think, like you've said, that we're going to get some forward progress here with the incoming administration on something that's important.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Look, Steve, if you'll stay right where you are, don't move, take a quick break, and then we'll be right back. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. I'm joined again by Senior Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation and good friend Steve Yates. Steve, we were talking about the perhaps change in view towards China with the incoming Trump administration.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
And I'd like to kind of keep on that subject a little bit more. Obviously, there's been a lot of talk about tariffs.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Setting that aside, I'm wondering what you could say about the level of communication that the Biden administration has had with China, with the Chinese regime's leadership, because you got to keep that channel of communication open in some fashion, and how you think that will go with the incoming administration?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
But I think if the Syrian Arab Army hadn't collapsed as quickly as it did, the Russians and the Iranians would have tried to get forces, get some resources in there to try to stem the bleeding a little bit. The reality is everything happened so fast.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
that by the time the Iranians in particular can mobilize and deploy forces, it would have been all over anyways, even if Assad had tried to hang on for a couple more days. Yeah, I mean, it is interesting. Look, the Russians have two very important bases there, right? One air base, one naval base. So they had resources there. Now they don't because they've obviously moved them out of harm's way.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Yeah, I think those conversations definitely need to be had. I'm cynical over whether you can have those conversations and in any real fashion change the behavior of the CCP. Certainly with Xi Jinping in charge, it hasn't been the case. But I think you have to have those conversations. And I think the value add with Trump, look, like his style or not,
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
is that he keeps other leaders on their back foot. He's just unpredictable in a way that most leaders aren't comfortable with, including, I would argue, Xi. So, I just think that there's a real value there that I don't know whether it's intended or not, whether he's doing it as a psychological ploy to keep other leaders off balance, but it doesn't matter because I do believe it works.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Another good friend, Steve Feld, Gordon Chang, he's talking to me about this idea that, and he firmly believes it, and I don't disagree with him at all, is that China is on a war footing with the US, the West, and that the US just chooses either to ignore that or doesn't understand it or is naive. What do you think?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
They're not unsure what the rebels are going to do regarding the Russian assets. But it does seem like they could have done more. Even with the fact that the Syrian army wasn't performing up to snuff. On the Russian side, they had a bunch of resource constraints related to Ukraine. Now, they did have aircraft in Syria, and those aircraft were conducting airstrikes.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
What can you tell us in the remaining time that we've got, Steve, what can you tell us about the state strength of the Chinese economy?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
But again, I think those aircraft can't hold ground. So they needed a ground force to be able to prevent this collapse from happening. That ground force probably would have had to come from the Iranians.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Yeah, I think that's really interesting. I mean, you could argue Putin has been sort of a master of that. Whenever he feels in a threatened position, he finds an outside agitator. He finds some boogeyman out there that he can hopefully draw the support of the population and get their minds off of other things.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
And I think your point is absolutely spot on that potentially a weak economy, which I think Xi probably fears more than anything, sort of a downward spiral and its impact on the population. I think that could impact the timeline on a potential move to Taiwan.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Well, Steve, I got a lot more questions. Unfortunately, I don't have any more time, which all that means is you've got to pick up the phone and agree to come back on the show when we call you. You got an open book, Mike, of course. Fantastic. Listen, thank you, Steve, very much for being here on the Situation Report. Steve Yates, Senior Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Thank you again, joining us today and sharing your insights. Very much appreciated. That right there is all the time that we have for the PDB Situation Report for this weekend. If you have any questions or comments, you know what to do. Reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. The entire PDB production team loves hearing from you, and I mean that sincerely.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
But the speed at which the Syrians collapsed kind of made that plan go right out the window because the Iranians just couldn't move enough resources there in time to really do anything about the problem. Yeah. So what degree do you know about what they did move in? I mean, were they moving in militia from Iraq? Were they moving in fighters from Hezbollah?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
In fact, what they do as a PDB team, they love to hear from you so much that every month they take a pile of your questions and comments and they...
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
smush them together that's a technical term in tv production they smush them together into an episode that we call ask me anything and we've got another one of those coming up very shortly and of course to listen to the podcast of this show ad free well that's easy become a premium member of the president's daily brief simply by visiting pdppremium.com see i told you it was very easy i'm mike baker and until next time well you know the drill stay informed stay safe
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Stay cool.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
I mean, what were they attempting to do at least? We saw some Hezbollah, but mainly to secure Hezbollah objectives in Syria. And we did see some Iraqi groups reportedly moving earlier in the week to support Syrian forces around the city of Hama. I think that those forces either got blocked or stopped short of engaging in Hama.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Plus, we'll take a look at China's latest military exercises around Taiwan, and there have been a number of them, which are among the largest in decades, with nearly 100 vessels mobilized. That's a lot of vessels. Okay, joining us to break down the implications is Senior Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation and a good friend, Steve Yates. But first, today's Situation Report Spotlight.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
One of the things the rebels did was actually cut the roads east of Hama to prevent any reinforcements from getting towards Hama, which I thought was very smart operationally in military terms, but probably prevented these reinforcements from arriving. In terms of Hezbollah, they try to secure a key town called Qusayr, which is close to Homs, which fell, I think, on Friday.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
It all happened so fast, they kind of lose track of when everything fell. But Qusayr is one of the conduits through which Hezbollah would get Iranian weapons. So Hezbollah pushed 2,000 fighters across the border to secure the area. But as the regime fell apart, they just withdrew back into Lebanon.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Well, I mean, it does sound, I mean, it's clear from what you're saying that, I mean, you believe that the primary contributing factor to all of this was just the failure of the Syrian army. And that then influenced the Soviet and Iranian decisions in part because, again, of the speed of the deadline. So... To what degree do you think that Syrian army is going to be completely disbanded?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
I mean, is there any sense that the incoming new government is going to do essentially the same thing that happened in Iraq when we just decimated the ranks of the Iraqi army after the fall of Saddam? Yeah, they're going to have to rebuild some sort of fighting force because the Syrian Arab Army does not exist anymore. The rebels in the south captured a lot of the tanks and that sort of equipment.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
I'm assuming the HTS led rebels coming from the north also captured a lot of equipment. But I mean, I haven't even seen serious reports of large remnants of the Syrian Arab Army yet. out anywhere, whether that's in the desert or, you know, even in the kind of Assad heartland in the far west. I've seen reports of, you know, maybe five or six guys who are saying we'll fight to the very end.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
But other than that, I mean, there are no real remnants of the army existing. So not even up in that northeast area where Assad is from, where he sort of had his home base. Yeah, in the kind of northwest area. There's not even one that's up there. And in fact, Yeah. In fact, we're seeing that the Rebels have control in a lot of these areas now. I suppose the big question now is what next?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
And I realize that most people are just speculating on this because nobody really knows at this early stage, but what do you think? Yeah, so I think that there are a couple different ways that this can go, obviously. The most concerning direction it can go is if there are widespread revenge killings and extremist groups taking advantage of the...
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
incomplete syrian government control to uh kind of spin up sectarian hatred and those sorts of things we haven't seen too many indicators of that but given it's so concerning we are on uh you know sharp lookout for any indicators that you know that that's we might be on that sort of um trajectory
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
I think in the immediate term, one of the biggest things I'm watching is in northeastern Syria with the U.S.-backed forces and what's going to happen there. The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces are Kurdish-majority, Kurdish-dominated, and they have to control a lot of Arab areas. They have a lot of tension with those Arab communities.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
We're seeing these Arab communities trying to throw off the SDF and say, no, we're part of Arab Syria and we want to no longer be under SDF control. That is a big flashpoint in whether we will see continued fighting up there. Yeah, that's a really important point, which I'm glad you brought up.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Just last week, we were discussing on this program the astonishing speed of the rebel advance in Syria. And then, just one day after that episode aired, the Assad regime fell. Overnight, rebel forces stormed Damascus, toppling Bashar al-Assad's government and ending over 50 years of authoritarian rule by the Assad family. And might I add, brutal rule. The embattled leader fled to Moscow,
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
But you have to imagine there was some uncomfortable conversation there over the fact that the Turks, and certainly Erdogan, view the Kurds as a terrorist organization and would very much prefer that the U.S. not be supporting their efforts. Exactly.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
And some of the areas that the Turkish-backed rebels have been fighting with the U.S.-backed SDF over are areas that Turkey has long sought to capture from the SDF. They've made repeated threats to capture these areas, and it seems like they finally made their move.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
So now today we're seeing, you know, this week we've seen reports of the Turkish-backed rebels capturing the Manbij area, which is one of those important areas. for Turkey to take control of. And now, Brian, if you could stay right there, as you know, here at the Situation Report, we've got some terrific sponsors.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
We're going to take a break to hear from them, and then we'll come back with Brian Carter, and we'll be talking about Israel and their involvement in Syria to date, as well as the rebel groups and who and what they represent. We've got a quick break, and we'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
as his grip on power collapsed and is reportedly now shacking up with his best friend, Vladimir Putin. Now with the Assad dynasty gone, Syria stands at a crossroads, its fate in the hands of a motley coalition of rebels cementing their grip on power. And credit where it's due, our next guest predicted this outcome on last week's program. Joining me again is Brian Carter.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Now, let me bring back our guest, Brian Carter of the American Enterprise Institute. Brian, one interesting aspect of all this with Syria is Israel's activities since Assad was toppled. Talk to me about that if you could. Israel has conducted an air campaign into Syria to destroy a lot of the strategic assets that Assad held, stuff like chemical weapons, missiles, those sorts of things.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
They've also gone after Assad military bases and that sort of stuff. In addition to all that, they have created what they're calling a buffer zone in southwestern Syria, just outside of the Golan Heights. They're moving in there to prevent any sort of situation from emerging out of the kind of chaotic situation in Syria that could threaten the Israeli state.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Israel, as you know, after the October 7 attacks, has really had a very different security mindset, and they're really not willing to take any risk with their national security right now, which is why I think you see this very assertive policy developing as it relates to Syria.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
Yeah, I think that's a really important point because I was going to ask you about sort of this more emboldened attitude towards a very proactive, preemptive strikes. And I don't know that before 7 October, if this situation in Syria had happened, that Israel would have considered the same moves. They probably would have gone after the chemical weapons and the missiles.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
But, you know, I don't think they would have gone so far as to go into, you know, the disengagement zone and go into Syria. I thought that was a pretty big step. And, you know, it really drives into focus again, like I mentioned, the changes in Israel after October 7th.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 14th, 2024: Inside The Collapse of Assad & China’s Massive Military Drills
I mean, to kind of put it into comparison, the October 7th attacks per capita, had they occurred in America, would have killed like 50,000 Americans, which is just an unfathomable number. Where does all this leave the Iranian regime? It leaves them in a very, very bad, invulnerable position. Obviously, since October 7th, they have
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
Pleasure, of course. This latest round of aggressive boycott exercises is very provocative. It would probably be dominating a lot of the news cycle if we hadn't had a major announcement about tariffs everywhere in the world, because I think this is the most provocative move to date by the People's Republic of China. Why do you say that?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
Because it really drew a line that you could literally read from space that cut Taiwan off from Japan, from the Philippines, from the Pacific, and blocked traffic going north and south through the Taiwan Strait. And so, whether they have the capabilities to sustain this, whether they have the intent to hit and blow things up on the island of Taiwan, all those things are to be determined.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
But I think this is basically auditioning for what kind of reaction do we get from Washington, Tokyo, others, and from Taiwan? And are we just able to slow cook this frog to where we're just going to take it by these exercises and cut off transit? Well, what kind of reaction are they getting so far? Has there been any reaction from the White House, for example?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
Well, as far as I can discern, there hasn't been a clear reaction, partly because all communications have been nuked by the conversation about tariffs, including Taiwan being listed. On the one hand, they were listed as a country on the fact sheet, something that made them smile. And then the tariff number was up, something that did not make them smile.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
But here they were, having had a private sector rep from their TSMC come to the White House and promise $100 billion of investment in the United States, something they hoped would blunt getting tariffs levied their way, to waking up to find that they're in the next round of conversations of, how are we going to recalibrate this strategic economic relationship?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
The State Department was pretty clear in saying that it is China that is destabilizing the status quo, that the US policy is pretty clearly against any form of coercion or violence, redefining what Taiwan's relationship is with China. So, I think in terms of the words, they've been right. And Secretary Hegseth, just out in the region, going to the Philippines and Japan, also going to Guam.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
These are geographies that are relevant and trying to enhance deterrence.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
So, the president of Taiwan has communicated through that new global medium known as X. It used to be we'd have press conferences and coverage on television. But on X, I thought he gave a pretty smart response, said that, They had already made efforts to lower barriers to trade and they'd offered a lot of generous investment in the United States.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
They remain committed to that friendly relationship and essentially look forward to continuing the conversation. So, I thought he did a wise job of not overdoing the reaction as people are kind of shocked to see what the announcement was. And I thought there was a degree of truth that they are. looking at investing in a lot of parts of the United States.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
And it's up to them to kind of propose what next steps they want to put on the table and see whether the administration pulls down those numbers. But those numbers are calculated in ways that are very different than the US trade representatives methodologies in the past.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
And so, it's not just looking at reciprocal tariff rates, they're looking at trade imbalances and putting that into the formulation. So, I think there's a little bit of thought that needs to go into how to respond to that and maybe a little thought on the US side about how to take the responses from others that say, uncle, we want to deal with you, we are your friend, what can we do?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
No, I think we're seeing them testing all parts of their apparatus. And so with the Communist Party, really with any rational war power, you would want to have information war as part of what you were doing as your strategy towards success. But the Communist Party is information warfare first and foremost. So we've seen them test physical capabilities.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
And we've seen them test from time to time trade and agriculture points of pressure to see if they can force points of pain and compromise. And this information war, I think, has been taken up a notch. And that information war has been aimed at the United States too. And it's been pretty blunt and belligerent, if you ask me.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
And so, we haven't really seen the Trump administration take the bait to get a no tit for tat on the information of war yet, but I think we do need to take it seriously that they are practicing every piece of what they would have in mind to use if they look to take decisive action. Cyber information, this boycotting, and then also having real classical military capabilities.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
I don't think you're wrong about that. I think that there is an intended signal to say, we have leverage and you don't have that many options to our vast consumer market. You can say, we're dependent on your goods, but your economy is actually at greater risk than ours is. And you've been playing around in this Taiwan stuff.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
But now I'm going to raise the stakes and you've got some domestic things you need to face. I think there's some logic to that. The only question I have is how it plays out in a completely controlled information environment in China. And so we'll see. We're not in an information war where the environments are equal or similar on both sides.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
Well, it's changed a lot over time. And some of it is by government direction and some of it's like, do I want to risk the hassle? So I'm just going to self-censor what I'm looking for and what I really care about. And I think that in recent years, they're getting a lot of their news and information online.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
like they've gotten the rest of the world on short form video and texting apps not necessarily consuming everything the central television channel puts out the older generation definitely still consumes that but say the the 18 to 38 year old demographic is getting a lot of their information on WeChat and different kinds of social media platforms and they have algorithmic control
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
where they can literally eliminate certain words from being used and security can come ask you questions. And this was perfected during the COVID experience. And so a lot of Chinese people are choosing not to consume information that would maybe get a knock at the door or some kind of a hassle.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
And they have facial recognition, social credit score, where it can affect your ability to enter the subway safely. or high-speed rail on family vacations if you don't play right. So they've got much, much more control. That said, family members seem to find ways to get things in. VPNs can still work, but they're not perfect. And there's still kind of a question if after a generation of
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
cult-like control over information. Even if I got the truth to you, are you ready to receive it? There's a little bit of an allegory of cave situation where you come out of the dark, you're not ready for the full light. And so, what kind of information can get to them? I think the most effective thing you can do is to try to raise doubts.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
about the survivability of their economic systems, raise doubts about what do these princelings of grandkids and kids that are the pride and joy of two generations of a family, whether they've got the opportunity they deserve, and is Taiwan really worth it? That I think is an area where we could press more.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
But I think there is an analogy. It's just not in the consumer goods, which definitely was a part of the Moscow and the Hudson kind of experience that you were describing. But in terms of thought, if you don't live in free speech, you don't even live in free avenues of information. You have that similar experience just in your mind and your social media.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
So that's probably a bit of that that we're going to have to wrestle with if the great firewall of China comes down some.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
Well, this is kind of a really interesting line of inquiry, and it's one I've lived with my whole life. And I wish I could say that after 35 plus years of studying and watching this and dealing with people in the intelligence community and government and private sector, that we had a better read today than we did way back then. And I would argue we actually don't.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
I think that Xi Jinping is more isolated. We know less about what the actual state of his health is. We're sort of left back to what we used to do in old Kremlinology and seeing pictures of leaders in public. Does he look puffy? Does he look frail? Who's standing next to them? Are they close? Are they far? Who's getting carted out of the meeting? What does that mean?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
And so there's just a lot of old, very imprecise statecraft that is being used in this right now. There's a lot of theories about people in the military that are unhappy with Xi Jinping. They've moved very far in terms of getting money and being able to develop politics. platforms where there's quality control questions.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
And nobody cares more about the people in the military than the people in the military. And if they're treated like potential cannon fodder going out on untested platforms, they might actually be less bold than some politico behind closed walls in the leadership compound in Beijing. And so, there's always tales about stresses and strains.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
And Xi has done a good job of disappearing, killing, and prosecuting people who wanted to challenge him. That creates a deterrent at first, resentment over time, and we have to see how all that will play out. But we're flying blind. We have our military attaches, we have intelligence, we have diplomatic channels, we have foreign friends who are trying to help us. But I would just argue in 2025,
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
We have a less clear picture of that than we did at the time of the Tiananmen massacre and trying to figure out why they did what they did at that time.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
Yeah. So I've heard that a lot and I think it could be true. We have to sort of factor it into our calculus as one of the dominant theories. But there's also the risk side of that and parts of the Communist Party are going to be rational and Xi Jinping may not be. But there's a lot of reason for them to doubt that this will be easy for them, that it will be a quick decision.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
an easy, perfect victory. And that's what would work for a dying Xi Jinping if he wants to have a legacy. What would undermine that legacy is if you push the issue, there's some kind of kinetic disruption. It smolders for a bit and coming out the other end is not a Taiwan that is successfully integrated with the broader People's Republic.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
Chinese economy suffers greatly because of that risk being taken and the CCP is in a worse position. That's also a rational scenario. And it just comes down to that old sting song applied, do the Russians love their children too? Do the Chinese care about what comes after the initiation of this?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
And if they do, that legacy issue for Xi is not as clean a proposition of I'm dying, I'd like to go ahead and take this now. There's a lot of downside for them. Look at you with your cultural pull of a Sting song. We'll see how many listeners even remember Sting.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
It's very well defended in some ways. It's just old adage that it's a lot easier to hit and break something than it is to defend it against that kind of thing in terms of just the sheer volume of potential incoming. So if China chose to just shower the island of Taiwan with unrelenting missiles, There's a significant amount of capability to thwart some of that, but it could be overwhelmed.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
But then you basically have a fried island. You don't get the semiconductors. You don't get the people. I don't know what you got. And then I think Ukraine has awakened some people to the notion of the corollary to that. It's easier for them to hit. than it is to control and hold. And so, Taiwan has done things to make their society more resilient, to make their power supply more resilient.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
They got a long way to go on that. They do have meaningful military capabilities to try to hold out for a time, but what is that time? I think there's a lot of questions about at what point energy runs out for Taiwan and at what point does energy run out for China? They don't have unlimited supplies to run a significant war machine. So there's just a lot of open-ended stuff.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
inquiry when we're looking at all of that. But I still think that we're in a risk of a crisis all the time from now until there isn't a communist party in China anymore. And we've just got to, I think, balance that with more engagement from Japan, maybe a little from the Philippines and complicate stuff and buy time.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
Yeah, they play games with this. And it's not so easy for the foreigners to follow along in the games they play with it. But they sort of console themselves with, they can murder all the people they want because those were Taiwan independence activists. And those were splitists, as they called them. And so, they're no longer proper Chinese nationalistic people. And so, they can be fodder.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
On the other hand, the whole reason they say that this belongs to them is that allegedly it's a society of Chinese people just like them. So, contradiction is written right into the Communist Party DNA when it comes down to it. But they've worked in their own justification that because of politics, ideology, not ethnicity, that there are key elements of Taiwan that are worthy of getting smoked.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
Well, I think that the aggression with the blockades, the aggression against the Philippines, the other areas of trouble, they've really galvanized that first island chain in a way that's never existed since World War II. Now, it's the beginning of that reaction, not full readiness on their part. I think that actually is an asset to the United States and it complicates things for Beijing.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
I think that the military platforms they have, they have a lot of big ticket items, a lot of fighter jets, a lot of sea vessels. Some of these things are really easy to see from far away. And so if US, Japan, others are interested and willing, they can pretty much take a lot of that stuff out of commission quickly. So you could end up with
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
A lot of Chinese material going in looks overwhelming in an initial phase, but there's a lack of training and experience on their war fighters. Those platforms might not have good quality control. We have to see. So I have a lot of suspicion of how that would play out. But I suspect that there'll be some effort at significant coercion in the next couple of years.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
I don't think it'll be an absolute invasion or outright military assault, but some effort at serious coercion. And we'll have to see whether the United States and its allies have the moxie to do to China what was threatened to Russia and how that affects China's economy. I wouldn't want to test that today. under current plans and capabilities.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 5th, 2025: Trump's Economic Gambit & China Flexes On Taiwan
But I do know that there are thoughts and plans to try to improve that option set and I hope they're going at light speed.