Steven

And they got unemployment benefits, but it wasn't enough. And so is it practical to say, like, you should have 12 months of savings? It's probably not practical for a lot of people. But the answer is as much as you can while realizing that the world is more fragile than you probably think it is.

And they got unemployment benefits, but it wasn't enough. And so is it practical to say, like, you should have 12 months of savings? It's probably not practical for a lot of people. But the answer is as much as you can while realizing that the world is more fragile than you probably think it is.

I'm not even remotely an expert in AI, but as someone who's looked at the history of technology, one thing that sticks out clear as day when you study technology, in hindsight, when you're looking at a new technology that you know went on to change the world, the computer, the car, the airplane, those things, when you know this was a turning point in civilization, if you go back and look at what the optimists were saying at the time, they massively underestimated it.

I'm not even remotely an expert in AI, but as someone who's looked at the history of technology, one thing that sticks out clear as day when you study technology, in hindsight, when you're looking at a new technology that you know went on to change the world, the computer, the car, the airplane, those things, when you know this was a turning point in civilization, if you go back and look at what the optimists were saying at the time, they massively underestimated it.

And that's what the optimists were saying. Forget the pessimists on it. So go back to the 1920s and see what were the optimists saying about the airplane? They were underestimating it by a hundredfold. What did the optimists say about the car? They underestimated it by a hundredfold. Computers, same. And the Wright brothers themselves came up with the first airplane in the United States.

And that's what the optimists were saying. Forget the pessimists on it. So go back to the 1920s and see what were the optimists saying about the airplane? They were underestimating it by a hundredfold. What did the optimists say about the car? They underestimated it by a hundredfold. Computers, same. And the Wright brothers themselves came up with the first airplane in the United States.

The Wright brothers themselves only marketed their plane, primarily marketed their plane to the U.S. Army. Because they did not really foresee much use for an airplane outside of the military. They knew you could strap a machine gun on it and the army might like that. But did the Wright brothers foresee Delta Airlines and Emirates and A380? Like not in a million years. And so...

The Wright brothers themselves only marketed their plane, primarily marketed their plane to the U.S. Army. Because they did not really foresee much use for an airplane outside of the military. They knew you could strap a machine gun on it and the army might like that. But did the Wright brothers foresee Delta Airlines and Emirates and A380? Like not in a million years. And so...

I think it's true that in a lot of things in life, I think it was Peter Thiel who said this. He was like, when things are going wrong, you underestimate how bad they're going to get. But when things are going right, you underestimate how big it's going to be. I may have butchered that quote, but it's something like that. And it's clear that AI is right.

I think it's true that in a lot of things in life, I think it was Peter Thiel who said this. He was like, when things are going wrong, you underestimate how bad they're going to get. But when things are going right, you underestimate how big it's going to be. I may have butchered that quote, but it's something like that. And it's clear that AI is right.

And so it's almost certainly the case that even the optimists, even the Sam Altman optimists are underestimating where it will go. And a lot of the reason for that is because new technologies is not what the inventor, whoever that might be, built. It's what other people go on to manipulate it as. And that's why the Wright Brothers came up with Blaine and now we have the A380.

And so it's almost certainly the case that even the optimists, even the Sam Altman optimists are underestimating where it will go. And a lot of the reason for that is because new technologies is not what the inventor, whoever that might be, built. It's what other people go on to manipulate it as. And that's why the Wright Brothers came up with Blaine and now we have the A380.

Like it's other people manipulating things along the way to create something just gigantic.

Like it's other people manipulating things along the way to create something just gigantic.

Not even the long term, but in the short term. I'll give you one example. You talked about coding there. We're doing a little remodel on our house right now. And one of the things you can do is take a real picture of a room, upload it in. We use ChatGPT for this and said, hey, paint it this color, remove this wall, put this in. It is better than any designer will be able to do it.

Not even the long term, but in the short term. I'll give you one example. You talked about coding there. We're doing a little remodel on our house right now. And one of the things you can do is take a real picture of a room, upload it in. We use ChatGPT for this and said, hey, paint it this color, remove this wall, put this in. It is better than any designer will be able to do it.

And it's right there, boom, in front of you. Seconds. And you can multiply that story by 10,000 different versions of that story for 10,000 different jobs. I'd see it as a writer where I don't use it to write. I write all my own words.

And it's right there, boom, in front of you. Seconds. And you can multiply that story by 10,000 different versions of that story for 10,000 different jobs. I'd see it as a writer where I don't use it to write. I write all my own words.

But one thing that I've played around with, I don't really use this as that much of a tool, but just more of an experiment of like, I'll upload a chapter from a book that I wrote and say, hey, give me some feedback on this. And It wasn't that good a year ago. It's pretty good today. It's pretty good. So if you're looking for a writing assistant, it's amazing.

But one thing that I've played around with, I don't really use this as that much of a tool, but just more of an experiment of like, I'll upload a chapter from a book that I wrote and say, hey, give me some feedback on this. And It wasn't that good a year ago. It's pretty good today. It's pretty good. So if you're looking for a writing assistant, it's amazing.