Steven

But for anyone that doesn't know you, can you give me a picture of the context that has brought you to where you are today, writing about the things you're writing about today and running the YouTube channel and speaking to the subject matter that you're speaking about today? Take me right back and give me as much as you possibly can.

Okay, so my name's Gary Stevenson. I was born in a place called Ilford, which is in outer East London. Quite a poor family, a little terrace house by the railway, you know, playing football in the streets kind of stuff. Always very good at maths since I was a kid, very talented maths student.

Okay, so my name's Gary Stevenson. I was born in a place called Ilford, which is in outer East London. Quite a poor family, a little terrace house by the railway, you know, playing football in the streets kind of stuff. Always very good at maths since I was a kid, very talented maths student.

Eventually able to get into the London School of Economics, which is an extremely elite university, economics university in the centre of London, which is basically a kind of investment banking boot camp. Got a job as a trader. Started working full-time as a short-term interest rates trader at Citibank in London in June 2008, when I was 21.

Eventually able to get into the London School of Economics, which is an extremely elite university, economics university in the centre of London, which is basically a kind of investment banking boot camp. Got a job as a trader. Started working full-time as a short-term interest rates trader at Citibank in London in June 2008, when I was 21.

Obviously, exactly, that's just before the big credit crash, the big Lehman crisis. And I watched the Lehman crisis happen in front of my eyes. I was... Short-term interest rate trading is basically like short-term loans. And during the credit crisis, what a credit crisis is, is nobody can borrow any money. So like short-term loans become really, really important.

Obviously, exactly, that's just before the big credit crash, the big Lehman crisis. And I watched the Lehman crisis happen in front of my eyes. I was... Short-term interest rate trading is basically like short-term loans. And during the credit crisis, what a credit crisis is, is nobody can borrow any money. So like short-term loans become really, really important.

My desk, which was like historically an unfashionable area of trading, became like the center of the crisis, or one of the centers of the crisis. People started making tons of money. I was working with all these crazy people. And you can imagine me, like I turn up 21 years old, and then like within three months, like everyone around me is making a ton of money during the credit crisis.

My desk, which was like historically an unfashionable area of trading, became like the center of the crisis, or one of the centers of the crisis. People started making tons of money. I was working with all these crazy people. And you can imagine me, like I turn up 21 years old, and then like within three months, like everyone around me is making a ton of money during the credit crisis.

But what really interested me, was what happened after the crisis itself, which was, so we're betting on interest rates. Long story short, interest rates come down when the economy is weak and they go up when the economy is strong or when the economy is overheating from an inflation perspective. In 2008, all the interest rates go to zero.

But what really interested me, was what happened after the crisis itself, which was, so we're betting on interest rates. Long story short, interest rates come down when the economy is weak and they go up when the economy is strong or when the economy is overheating from an inflation perspective. In 2008, all the interest rates go to zero.

So suddenly our job is basically predicting and betting on when will those interest rates go back up, which is when will the economy recover? And this is super interesting. In 2008... Because all the interest rates went to zero so quickly. Before 2008, it's important to remember, rates would move from like five and a half to five and a quarter.

So suddenly our job is basically predicting and betting on when will those interest rates go back up, which is when will the economy recover? And this is super interesting. In 2008... Because all the interest rates went to zero so quickly. Before 2008, it's important to remember, rates would move from like five and a half to five and a quarter.

And then here in 2008, everywhere in the world slashing to zero.

And then here in 2008, everywhere in the world slashing to zero.

Exactly. And everybody, all the economists were like, wow, this is going to cause a massive recovery because they thought that interest rates were powerful. And everybody predicted that rates would come back up in 2009, which, of course, we now know they didn't. Then everybody predicted that rates would go up in 2010, which we now know they didn't.

Exactly. And everybody, all the economists were like, wow, this is going to cause a massive recovery because they thought that interest rates were powerful. And everybody predicted that rates would come back up in 2009, which, of course, we now know they didn't. Then everybody predicted that rates would go up in 2010, which we now know they didn't.

And then at the beginning of 2011, everybody was predicting rates would definitely go up this year. And this, to me, was so interesting. So interesting because, you know, I studied maths and economics at one of the best economics universities in the world. And now I'm working with these traders who are getting paid millions of pounds a year to predict the economy, to predict the interest rates.

And then at the beginning of 2011, everybody was predicting rates would definitely go up this year. And this, to me, was so interesting. So interesting because, you know, I studied maths and economics at one of the best economics universities in the world. And now I'm working with these traders who are getting paid millions of pounds a year to predict the economy, to predict the interest rates.

And everybody predicted. is wrong year after year after year. And this was so amazing to me for a couple of reasons. First of all, it's like, wow, this is a big thing that we as a society should understand. And we're getting it wrong. But secondly, if all of the best guys in the world are getting this wrong, then if I can figure this out, I can make a ton of money here.