Stuart Russell

And that's the thing, right?

The AI community is sort of refused to ask itself, what if you succeed?

And initially, I think that was because it was too hard, but Alan Turing asked himself that, and he said, we'd be toast.

Right?

If we were lucky, we might be able to switch off the power, but probably we'd be toast.

Yeah, I think that's a reasonable point.

And, you know, it's certainly in terms of existential risks, it's different from, you know, asteroid collides with the Earth, right?

Which, again, is quite possible.

You know, it's happened in the past.

It'll probably happen again.

We don't know right now.

But if we did detect an asteroid that was going to hit the Earth in 75 years' time, we'd certainly be doing something about it.

Right.

With AI, I mean, there are very few people who think it's not going to happen within the next 75 years.

I know Rod Brooks doesn't think it's going to happen.

Maybe Andrew Ng doesn't think it's happened.

But, you know, a lot of the people who work day to day, you know, as you say, at the Rockface, they think it's going to happen.

I think the median estimate from AI researchers is somewhere in 40 to 50 years from now, or maybe even a little, you know, I think in Asia, they think it's going to be even faster than that.

I am a little bit,

More conservative, I think, would probably take longer than that.