Suzanne Maloney

What we know are that there are still a number of officials, most of which have senior military experience, who appear to be essentially running the government.

There is also a sort of administrative side to the governance in Iran, which is still being led by a president who was elected in the aftermath of the death of another potential contender for the supreme leader just a couple of years ago.

He has very little power, but he can keep the system running.

The key figures are those from the military.

Mojtaba Khamenei, who has been named the supreme leader, who has issued several statements, has not been seen in public.

There are a wide range of rumors about the state of his health, that he may have been grievously injured in the same attack that killed his father, his mother, his wife, and other members of his family on the first day of the war.

But in effect, it's almost irrelevant at this point.

Mojtaba can remain kind of a cipher.

He can govern from afar because there are these military officials who are essentially running the show.

And the system that his father set up has ensured that, you know, this is highly institutionalized.

The supreme leader had representatives in every administrative office of the government.

They will continue running the state in the vision of the Islamic Republic.

And if Mojtaba is never seen in public, if he is known to be grievously injured, of course, his father had experienced a significant terrorist attack early in his career, lost the use of his right hand.

That actually just plays into the themes of martyrdom and sacrifice that are so important to this regime today.

So I don't think it's actually a deficit that we have this kind of shift in the balance of power away from the clergy toward the military.

It's something that I think the regime is leaning into at this point in time.

That's a really important point.

The Iranians want to ensure that they don't face yet another round of attacks.

One of the concerns that they have about a potentially preemptive end to this war is that it will just be the prelude to another set of strikes.

This is what they experienced in June of 2025.